It is time for another round of musical chairs—Middle Eastern style. The region’s countries are notorious for changing their friends and allies as often as their socks and the Mecca Agreement announced this week complicates the issue by throwing up a sandstorm of unresolved questions.

But start with history. The region’s first postwar security alliance was the British-inspired Baghdad Pact. Formed in 1955, it included the UK, Iraq, Iran,, Pakistan and Turkey. After the Iraqi revolution in1959, Iraq pulled out. At that time the Americans—who had been active non-members of the pact—became even more active non-members. Thus the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) was formed. It lasted until 1979 and the Iranian revolution.

But how did the Mecca Agreement come about. Well, according to Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, the pact has been three years in the making. The two chief architects appear to be Fidan and Pakistani Defence chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. They kept their talks fairly quiet until this week’s announcement.

Fidan has been heavily involved in Turkey’s foreign policy for decades. He was head of the country’s intelligence services and President Erdogan’s national security adviser before his appointment as foreign minister. For Turkey, the Mecca Agreement is the culmination of Erdogan’s long-standing policy of shifting Turkey away from Europe and towards the Middle East and Islamic world.

Ankara brings a significant contribution to the alliance: a large NATO-trained military and an established and sophisticated defence industry.

Saudi Arabia lacks military muscle but it makes up for that with hard cash. The alliance’s secretariat will be based in Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan’s biggest contribution could be its nuclear arsenal of about 170 weapons. The most interesting thing about the Mecca Agreement is its NATO-style three musketeer clause that commits all the member states to come to the defence of any member state that is attacked. The agreement is ambiguous about the role of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and leaves open the question of whether Saudi Arabia now shelters under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella. The Saudis have for years spoken of acquiring a nuclear capability as a deterrent against attack by a possibly nuclear-armed Iran. Now it may have it.

The two countries have strong defence links going back to the 1980s when Pakistan started sending its troops to the desert kingdom. There are now 8,000 Pakistani soldiers in Saudi Arabia. In September 2025 the two countries signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” which included an Article 5-type clause. The Mecca Agreement effectively extends that agreement to include Turkey.

Egypt was supposed to be the fourth founding member but has held back, probably because it  is concerned that the Article 5 clause could drag into a war with India or against the Houthis or Iran. Egypt, however, has been deeply involved in the negotiations leading up to the signing of the agreement and Turkey’s Fidan said, however, that he expects Egypt to join. He also said that other countries are expected to join the alliance, which begs the question: Why were Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, the UAE and Qatar absent from the first tranche of members?

Also, what will be the attitude of India and Israel towards the alliance? Will it push those two countries closer? How concerned is India about Pakistani’s newly acquired military muscle? Relations between Turkey and Israel have been poor for years. How concerned are the Israelis about a Turkish-Saudi link-up? What impact will this have on the Abraham Accords and the hope for Saudi diplomatic recognition?

Finally, there is America. Washington has been unusually silent about the Mecca Agreement, but we can make some inferences. There will be people who are delighted that the burden of defending the region is shifting from American shoulders. There are others who are worried that the US is being edged out of a vitally strategic region. They are also concerned that the treaty undermines the long-standing policy of nuclear non-proliferation by possibly placing Saudi Arabia under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.

Washington should also be worried about the impact the agreement will have on relations with India. Over the past 10 years the US has been working hard to establish a solid defence relationship with India as a counterweight to China. Support for Pakistan from Saudi Arabia and Turkey skews the balance of power in South Asia.

But perhaps worst of all is that the US has been an active participant in the region’s defence affairs since 1955. It was an active non-member of the Baghdad Pact and CENTO. When that collapsed in 1979 it formed a series of bilateral relationships centred on Saudi Arabia. Since 1979 it has fought a series of wars in the Gulf region. The latest one is still being waged. It has been an abject failure and exposed the limitations of the American giant. The Mecca Agreement is evidence that America’s allies in the Middle East no longer trust America alone to protect them.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”