Next year all of Wales and much of England go to the polls for local elections. If there hasn’t already been one before then, there may well be a general election too. With all this electoral excitement ahead it would be easy, and in many people’s eyes, preferable, to not think about that looming cloud that is the 2009 European elections.
Let’s face it, we haven’t had a great deal to celebrate in European elections in the past. In our first ever round Euros as the Liberal Democrats we polled a record low for a national election – just 6.2% and less than half the tally of the Green Party. Its not got much better since either. Our 16% in 1994 was our peak and last time around we came fourth again – stumbling home behind the UKIP.
But there are reasons to be optimistic for 2009. In 2004 our vote actually went up on the 1999 figures, and since then we have had a series of good results each year. We are in a far stronger position than we were in 1999 and are polling consistently higher than we did those 8 long years ago.
There is also no reason to expect a ‘fourth party bounce’ that has harmed us twice before. UKIP have not sustained their momentum. In 2005 they lost over 90% of their deposits – the results would have seen them wiped out at a European level. The Greens too have stagnated as the Lib Dem Green Tax Switch has dominated the environmental agenda.
But there is a warning contained within the 2004 results. In the local elections held on the very same day we came second with a record breaking projected national share of 27% – a full 10% higher than we achieved in the Europeans.
So why then, does our vote not transfer at a European level? The nature of the elections themselves have a big impact. The list system prevents us from running any target seat campaigns or obtaining any tactical votes – both of which push up our vote share at constituency elections.
How we campaign for a list election is a big factor. All local campaigners and councillors should be working hard at the European election to improve their strength locally – if you can get your voters out at the Euros, you’ll get them out all the time. But we also need to improve our national campaigning strategy. We need to make the European elections about European policies – not a referendum on the EU.
In 2004, the BBC described the Lib Dems stand as ‘staunchly pro-European’. A description no one would really be surprised by, but not, in my view, one we should welcome. Yes, we support membership of the European Union, but do not believe the EU can do no wrong.
We do not need to be seen as staunchly pro-European to keep in line with our internationalist values. Just as Tony Blair’s unrelenting desire to be close to George Bush made it easy for him to be painted as unquestioningly sycophantic, so too has our pro-EU stance allowed other parties to paint us with bad EU policy. We are the people who are drowning enterprise in red tape, paying bureaucrats six figure salaries and subsidising French farmers – or so the right wing press will tell us.
But we know different. We know that we are the party who wants to support enterprise and free small businesses from the burdens of excessive paperwork. We are also the party who wants to streamline government, both in the UK and the EU. We should push ourselves to the forefront of the One Seat campaign. It is impossible to justify the €200 million and 20,000 tonnes of carbon a year it costs to host the Parliament in two different cities, and we should never try to do so.
In short we need to vigorously oppose EU policy we disagree with and positively welcome it when we do. We must not be afraid to grasp thorny issues, otherwise we will appear Blairite in our EU loyalty.
What then should we expect from 2009? Well lets not be all doom and gloom. Even with the cut in seat numbers, a 2% increase in our vote would see us hold all our current seats and make 1 gain. Surely polling 17% should not be beyond our wildest dreams? But lets dare to dream a little further. Take the 2005 results on a regional basis and we would bag 17 MEPs.
I’m not suggesting that we should expect to replicate that success, but there is no reason to think we can’t make gains. European elections may not have been our forte in the past, but they can be in the future. We need to show ourselves as the party of choice for pro-Europeans who don’t like the waste, inefficiency, and ineffectiveness of the EU – ie, the party that we are.
Kevin O’Connor is an activist based in Wales.
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13 Comments
Surely what you thought about the 2004 Euro elections deepended on where you were in the country. It was a terrific performance in the North East and the North West.
And of course, a dismal one in Wales…
Don’t any euro candidates have some thoughts on this that they’d like to share? Or is Europe really that unpopular at the moment?
Let’s face it – none of us can be bothered about the euro elections and neither can the electorate.
I think our 12 MEP’s would disagree with you there Robin.
I would agree with a lot of the points that Kev makes.
The issue about vote transfer at Euro elections is an interesting point and is similar to the disapointing transfers of constituency votes to the regional ballotts in Wales and Scotland this year.
It seems that however good we get at campaigning on the ground, however good we are at throwing our weight at key seats and coming up trumps, our national profile and national campaign seems to fail to grab the attention of the electorate.
This is allways bound to be the case in a society obsessed with two party politics yet it is frustrating that we seem not to be making any headway in overcoming it.
Cheltenham Robin is wrong to say that none of us can be bothered about Euro Elections. I think that they are too important to approach like this. While I agree that it can be difficult to get excited about this, Europe is the best way to deal with problems that go beyond our own abilities to deal with, the environment, international crime and terrorism.
I am determined that the Liberal Democratic way is represented as strongly as it can be when such issues are dealt with by Britain and its European partners.
Roll on 2009.
Cheltenham Robin, that is hardly constructive and illistrates perfectly the attitude that causes us the problems.
The fact is that, as Dom says, like it or not, if we genuinely believe in spreading our Lib Dem values then we have to fight the European elections as much as any other.
The EP is another forum for getting policy influenced. We need to get as many Lib Dems in there as possible. I was hoping to start a discussion about how we do that – not whether or not we should.
That’s great Kevin, I look forward to you coming to our constituency to spread the european message.
I certainly won’t be busting a gut, however that doesn’t make me less of a liberal.
I am also pro-european, I just haven’t got the time to convince everyone else of the virtues of the EU.
“Let’s face it – none of us can be bothered about the euro elections and neither can the electorate.”
That is exactly the mistake Andy Ellis made in 1990, when he dismissed the EP elections as “for Euro bores”.
A fatal error that cost the party dear.
Remember Andy Ellis? From legend in his own lifetime to un-person within a week.
Well, I suppose you could say that 1990 gave the leadership a hefty jolt. The party organisation became more professional and Chris Rennard was brought to the fore. But at what cost!
Being pro-European means pointing out to people that our own prosperity is in large part a product of EU membership. The Single Market has been an unparalleled success.
We also have to be critical. The civilian legal system is a disaster (treaties that are basically invitations to judges to dispense palm tree justice – the so-called “teleological” approach to interpretation). The system of agricultural subsidy is also unsatisfactory, but do remember that UK farmers benefit too.
The EU makes laws that affect us, and spends our money, so we have every reason to take the EP seriously.
Being pro-European means pointing out to people that our own prosperity is in large part a product of EU membership. The Single Market has been an unparalleled success.
That’ll sound catchy in a Focus leaflet.
It is not accurate to say that Liberal Democrats have never done well in EP elections. When we had FPTP we were capable of performing as well in EP elections as in elections to Westminser.
In 1994, we won Cornwall & Plymouth, and Somerset, and would have won Devon but for a spoiling candidate. That, I think, amounts to our historically best performance in the South-West.
Re: No 10. Liberal Democrats have to talk to the electorate about real issues. One thing the EU doesn’t do is unblock drains.
There is a scaremongering article in today’s “Daily Mail” by Andrew Roberts, the thesis being that the proposed EU Constitution is an attempt to introduce a Federal Europe by the back door.
The trouble is, politicians over the years have been less than frank about sovereignty. I can recall Alec Douglas-Home assuring Parliament that there would be no diminution of national sovereignty. Yet civil servants had been writing briefing papers on Costa v ENEL and Van Gend en Loos which ministers apparently didn’t bother to read (according to Professor Ian Loveland, who taught me EU law).
David Icke says the EU is an Illuminati plot to bring about a World Government. I disagree. Certainly, the Americans wanted Britain to join the then Common Market and basically run it in America’s interests. But I detect no enthusiasm for a Federal Europe among British neocons. Quite the reverse, in fact.
The dynamic towards a Federal Europe certainly doesn’t emanate from Washington. It comes from the Vatican if it comes from anywhere in particular (and, of course, the bureaucrats who would extend their powers).
Back to the Constitution. I can see the case for a consolidation Treaty, and a catalogue of fundamental rights (better to put it on paper than let the ECJ make it up).
The problem with campaigning for EP election is, like Kevin says, that list elections across large areas aren’t the easiest elections for Lib Dem campaign tactics, as we’ve seen in Wales in Scotland at times.
The other problem is, of course, that Europe is a divisive issue amongst the electorate, partly because it is seen as abstract. Rather than allowing the eurosceptics in the country to portray the EU as a bunch of overpaid bureaucrats who want only to steal our rights (to paraphrase their arguments), we need to explain what we will use the EU for – I’d suggest issues like protecting the environment, co-ordinating security issues and laws to stop poison in our food.
Traditional messages such as ‘Candidate X will stand up for Region Y’ in Brussels don’t work well because, the majority don’t cast anything even close to a personal vote in EP elections.
Finally, I’d like to think that, at the very least, seats where we have a strong campaigning team will be at least attempting to turn out our core vote – turnout is low enough in EP elections that this really could make the difference (unless Gordon holds Parliamentary elections on the same day…)
We need to talk about Europe. At the moment we don’t/won’t.
I’m personally an internationalist EU-skeptic.
The Single Market (where it functions) is a protectionist trading block.
There is a massive accountability deficit in the EU with regulatory diarrhoea and little scrutiny. Decisions are made behind closed doors.
The EU is responsible for two of the worst environmental and economic policies ever – the Common Agriculture and Fisheries Policies.
Subsidiarity has gone out of the window.
We could campaign on a pro-cooperation, even a pro-EU, platform but talking about how we’d work to reform the EU. How we’d work to make it a liberal institution for pan-European cooperation.
We should be campaigning for scrutiny of all EU legislation in the UK Parliament and Parliamentary backing being needed for agreements entered into by ministers.
Instead we remain silent on the issue and submit meekly to the charge of pro-EU mania…