The Sunday Times(£) has played echo for anonymous “Downing Street sources” briefing that “if it looks like he [Nick Clegg] will lose his Sheffield Hallam seat, there will be an emergency exit strategy which could see him land one the big jobs in Brussels” namely becoming a Member of the Commission.
The “Downing Street source” behind this must not have Nick Clegg’s or the Liberal Democrats’ interests at heart. It feeds the narrative of “Nick Clegg under siege” of which “Nick Clegg may lose his seat” is the hyperbolic epitome.
Nick Clegg would be extremely well qualified for the Commission, although his appointment would be contrary to Graham Watson’s call for future Commissioners to be drawn from the membership of the Parliament, just as UK Ministers are drawn from the UK Parliament. I would be excited to see Nick Clegg answering questions in the Parliament as a Commissioner or even Commission President.
Anyone who wants a new Liberal Democrat Leader for the next General Election would find the timetable helpful. A new European Parliament will be elected in June 2014. The Commission, likely including a new President, would be appointed over the summer depending on Parliament’s reaction to the names put forward by the member states. The election of a new Liberal Democrat Leader could be completed in time for the Party Conference in September 2014 and the General Election in Spring 2015.
It seems unlikely, however, that David Cameron would put Nick’s name forward rather than a Conservative unless he obtained an important political concession in return and was sure that a new Liberal Democrat Leader would not cause him significant problems. Commissioner Clegg creates various political risks for Cameron without obvious benefits.
In the Sunday Times report, it is striking that the journalist makes no mention of approaching Nick Clegg’s office for a response, which ought to be “Nick Clegg is totally committed to delivering fairness and Liberal Democrat values in government” or “we don’t comment on anonymous gossip”.
Not offering Nick Clegg a right of reply suggests three possibilities: the journalist is lazy, the journalist is especially willing to be helpful to the Conservative briefing him, or his anonymous source was a Liberal Democrat in such a position that approaching the Leader’s Officer seemed unnecessary.
This anonymous story may be the first drop of a sprinkle of Tory stories to undermine a possible new Leader in advance of their accession. Rational Conservative and Lib Dem strategists would ‘horizon scan’ and plan for the possibility of a new Lib Dem Leader. There are imaginable circumstances where would be clearly right for Nick and/or the party for him to pass the baton on before the next General Election (such as a senior EU or UN appointment that gives Nick a greater chance to change the world). A new Leader opens numerous possibilities that may threaten Conservatives. Establishing a media narrative of “deep party crisis may cause Nick Clegg to go” (instead of “really good opportunity to change the world may cause Nick Clegg to go”) will serve as a prelude for “new Liberal Democrat Leader is only Leader because of a deep party crisis” (instead of “new Leader offers exciting choice for next General Election.”)
It’s clear than some Conservatives, and perhaps some people in our own party, are already working to limit options for how Liberal Democrats may approach the next General Election and they will even damage Nick Clegg to achieve their aims. It’s important we assert our own frames for our party’s future.
Antony Hook stood for the European Parliament in 2009 for South East England.
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24 Comments
I’m not convinced that we’d ever live it down in Clegg didn’t lead us into the next election. We have to fight it on our record in government, rather than insist it was all a mistake.
It wasn’t all a mistake, although many bits will be very costly to us over the next few years, we have achieved things we couldn’t have on the opposition benches doing confidence and supply and we should be shouting them louder, not muttering about replacing Clegg.
I wouldn’t hazard a guess at whether this came from the yellow or blue side of the carpets at number 10; neither would surprise me.
I think this article demonstrates a specific instance of a fundamental problem we face: we don’t have any friends in the mainstream media that allows us to shape the debate to anywhere near the extent that the Conservatives and Labour have.
Every single newspaper is going to attack us for the next five years to a degree we have never experienced before. We are no longer seen as irrelevant. We are now a primary enemy of both the Left and the Right.
Our lack of friendly press has always been a difficulty, but it is now a serious threat. The Leaders’ Debates gave us our only real experience of being able to frame the debate in our own way (which is exactly why there were so many on the Left and Right opposing our inclusion in the Debates). Big chunks of the public liked what they heard – it was new and refreshing. But it was also unfamiliar and discomposing, and that proved to be a large obstacle to votes on polling day.
Over the next five years, the Left and Right will deluge political debate to ensure that the familiar feeling is anti-Lib Dem. Without a continual counteracting narrative throughout this term, the hostility generated against us will prove to be a giant barrier to Lib Dem votes in ballot boxes up to 2015.
In the long term, the biased voices in the mainstream media will dwindle away as the public’s window on the world moves from print to pixels, and the game will gradually change to our advantage. Sadly, I have no idea what the medium term solution is.
Merry Christmas!
P.S. I deserve flames for calling politics a ‘game’. Grrrrr at myself.
Quite right, Antony. Nick Clegg is perfectly capable of shooting himself in the foot (usually both feet) without needing any help from the Tories.
@Duncan Stott
” Big chunks of the public liked what they heard – it was new and refreshing”
It’s such a shame that so little has materialised. We still have Ministers saying one thing to the public and another in private, they’re just Lib Dems instead of Labour. We have tripled tuition fees, we have faster deficit reduction than over 50% of the public voted for etc etc…
The public are not fooled by the media, nor are they fooled by half hearted experessions of regret, they feel lied to and will remember this whatever the media says unless the Leadership canges tack (and preferably changes leader).
We shouldn’t dignify these anonymous briefings with a response. They are only intended to damage the party.
Isn’t this all a bit of a product of 24 hour rolling news? More than ever politicians have to learn to look beyond the next headline and keep their nerve. Although I’m not a great fan of Clegg’s he seems to be standing up well against the barrage of hatred directed at him If a week is a long time in politics then four years is an eternity, but at the moment I see no reason to suppose that he will not be leading us into the next election, and I would also anticipate that he would hold his seat at that election.
Everyone has different conversations in public than in private. Ministers are no different.
We should apologise for breaking the NUS pledge, but our policy of scrapping fees was impossible given the election result, and the Coalition policy as a whole is the best possible.
No party got over 50% of the vote (you have to go back to 1931 to find the last time that happened). So to meet your criteria, a course of action can only be adopted if at least two major parties supported it during the election. That means no ending of child detention, no green investment bank, no capital gains tax increase, no lifting of income tax personal allowance, etc. And lots of Tory policies not adopted too. But primarily insisting of a mandate of over 50% for every policy would severely hamper the ability of any effective government to be formed. No thanks.
I agree that most of the public aren’t fooled by individual stories, but I think we are swayed by the overall political climate that is generated by the media. If we weren’t, there would be no market for political commentary, no need to have Murdoch round for tea at Number 10, indeed no point in newspapers having a partial editorial stance.
Plus, Nick’s not going to lose Sheffield Hallam. He’s got a 15,000 majority and his opponents are the Conservatives not Labour. There’s also not that many students in the seat compared to before the 2010 General Election, and so even if every single one of those had voted in 2010 and then switched to vote Labour next time (although it will of course be a different set of students by then) he’d still win.
I am getting increasingly annoyed with journalists who make assumptions about Nick’s popularity in Sheffield Hallam without having set foot in the city. They should read the more accurate article about it in January’s edition of Prospect magazine.
I would have thought this is simply an attempt to determine the agenda by the Tories which is almost certain to succeed. Gives Cameron a cast iron ally in NC for the majority of his current term in office and delays the appointment of new leader until it is too late to rebuild the Party for the next GE.
Likely to work because the Party’s opinion formers will convince themselves that NC will remain essentially a Lib/Dem and stay true to a Lib/Dem agenda once a Commissioner.
I commented previously that NC may have been offered a safe Tory seat at the next election – this is far more subtle.
“It’s clear that … some people in our own party, are already working to limit options for how Liberal Democrats may approach the next General Election”
Indeed.
And quite a few of them post here about how they are going to do it. No names, no pack drill, but I’m sure you know who I’m talking about.
@ Duncan Stott.
The real underlying reason why LibDems have so few friends in the media is that LibDems are associated with blind and desperate enthusiasm for the UK’s membership of the EU. That is the only reason that I am anti-LibDem, but it is crucial as far as I, and many others, are concerned. What a disaster it would have been if they had been in a position to take us into the Euro! LibDems, as compared with Liberals (www.liberal.org.uk) cannot be trusted in any battle between the interests of the UK and the interests of the EU.
@ John Roffey
And Nick Clegg’s appointment as an EU Commissioner will deepen that association in voters’ minds between the LibDems and the EU.
The coalition may well founder on the issue of the EU at some stage, with the Conservatives (except for Ken Clarke and some others) and Liberals, few though they are at present, taking the side of the UK and the LibDems taking the side of the EU. And that will be the end of the LibDems unless they come to their senses first and turn EU-sceptic for good progressive national and international reasons.
Yes, this is just Westminster gossip designed to harm Lib Dems.
@ Dane Clouston
Ha, ha – I am still trying to find out why the Party supports our membership of the EU. If ever there was a big vote winner, it would be to include an in/out vote on our membership in the next manifesto – it had been promised!
@Anders Hanson 23rd December 2010 at 2:41 pm who stated: (although it will of course be a different set of students by then)
Quite correct Anders – the set of students by then will be paying £9k a year in tuition fees.
Probably not at Sheffield they won’t.
Eco Jon – “the set of students by then will be paying £9k a year in tuition fees.”
No, they won’t be paying tuition fees. They will be incurring a potential future liability that will only become payable should ther income rise above £21k p.a.
Unlike the present situation given to us by Labour, of course, where fees ARE paid (and up front to boot).
@Tabman, but students will pay more eventually, or else the whole system will collapse like a deck of cards, this income has to be generated.
Are you not missing something more fundamental here?
‘Exit strategy’ for Clegg to become a Commissioner in the EU. Knighthood for the favoured. Seat in the Lords for our best mates. The odd job here and there in the IMF , J.P. Morgan or HBOS.
Always, always jobs for the boys. Let’s not worry about the fact that the country is doing a Wile Coyote with spinning legs just beyond the cliff edge. As long as another millionaire can be shoehorned into another cushy job post UK apocalypse, then why should we worry?
Can’t think why cynicism about politics is already at fever pitch ?
I ‘unjoined’ from the LibDems many moons ago. Given recent events I think that was a good choice. I think the next step is to ‘unjoin’ from the very notion that there has, or will be any worth in voting ever again.
Cheers
David.
David B – the fact that you and others have left the party makes it even more certain that it will come still further under the sway of the Clegg leadership. The courageous thing to do would be to stay and speak out and fight. If Clegg is not forced out BEFORE 2015 and the coalition ditched, there will be no party left to speak of. As for Duncan Stott’s laughable assertion that currently we are the primary enemy of both Left and Right…sorry, what planet is he calling in from? How can we be the enemy of the Right when – yes, thats correct! – our votes are keeping a Tory government in power! Because that is the bottom line – it doesnt matter a damn what we say and what we claim as OUR policies, since the ultimate truth is that we are enabling a Tory government hell bent on propagating Thatcherism on steroids. The thousands who have already lost their jobs and the 100s of thousands still to come know this, and the avoidable suffering that will result will be laid at our door because we would have the power to pull the plug at any moment.
We have for years put ourselves forward as a virtuous party on the side of ordinary people, but our actions since the GElection have contradicted it (spare me the ‘oh we toned down the nasty’ – 5 slaps in the face is less than 10 but they are still slaps in the face). And for a lesson on what happens when a people’s champion is shown to have feet of clay, just look at the sorry tale of Tommy Sheridan. That’s the verdict that’s waiting for us in 2015, unless we act.
@ Mike Cobley
I think I read recently that scientists had discovered that the ‘rush’ obtained from obtaining power is equal to or greater than a heroin ‘rush’.
@John Roffey
Why do the LibDems support our membership of the EU? A lot of it is inertia. Initially, like regionalisation in the 1970s, it is an issue on which Left and Right in the LibDems can unite. But now it will kill the party.
An in/out referendum on our membership of the EU in the next manifesto of the LibDems would not only be a big vote winner, but would also bring a lot of new Liberal members into the LibDems. You say it had been promised. I remember that but not in detail or in what context. Do you have chapter and verse? The Conservatives have said, have they not, that we should have a referendum on the EU if there is any movement post Lisbon to give up more sovereignty? So the LibDems might find it hard to stop that. Except that it looks as if loss of sovereignty is already under way again, by the way the bailouts are going
At least a clear promise by the LibDems, if it still exists, of an in/out referendum, is a promise by the LibDems that the Conservatives would not make them break!
@ David Butler
It will be more worth voting if we have AV.
@ Dane Clouston
No not chapter and verse, but it seems Daniel Hannan does:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100069452/the-revelation-that-truly-humiliates-the-lib-dems/
From the time:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7201881.stm
God loves a repentent sinner! D:
@John Roffey
Many thanks! SO, the Liberal Democrat 2005 General Election Manifesto said: “We are therefore clear in our support for the [European] Constitution, which we believe is in Britain’s interest – but ratification must be subject to a referendum of the British people”.
But when the motion on the referendum on the European Constitution came before Parliament, Nick Clegg ordered his MPs to abstain on the critical vote. The referendum fell by 63 votes, precisely the number of LibDem MPs. In the House of Lords, an abstention would not have been enough. So Nick Clegg adopted his third position in as many weeks and instructed his peers to vote agaist the referendum he had promised.
Seeking to justify these broken promises and U-turns, Nick Clegg said that what he wanted was a vote on EU membership, not the referendum he had promised before. Instead of a referendum on the Constitution, the LibDems would give us a vote on whether to remain in the EU. Two weeks later, LibDems in the Lords did not support a proposal for such a referendum on EU membership. Now there is the Wikileak cable, which confirms what was blindingly obvious and obviously hypocritical at the time: “Senior LibDems confessed that the party leadership believes a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty would fail (from their EU-fanatic point of view)”. So they broke their promise and now support a referendum they hope might succeed from their EU-fanatic point of view.
The current LibDemmanifesto, for what it is worth, which is not much on this issue, says:” The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membersip over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.” The Conservatives also promised a referendum on any future treaty that transferred power to the EU (although, unlike the LibDems, they didn’t promise to make it an in/out referendum). The Conservatives, commitment to a referendum is permanent in its nature: David Cameron said to Gordon Brown in 2009, we are the only major party to have consitently said that it is up to the British people to decide on our future in Europe.
Now, unexpectedly, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have an opportunity to fulfil their promises. EU heads of government recently agreed to a new treaty. The British people are waiting to decide with a promised referendum on our future in Europe. Can we trust the LibDems? No! Can we trust the Coalition? No! For the LibDems will wriggle humiliatingly out of anything that might lead to our leaving the EU, regardless of what they have already promised. Having just had a post censored for being rude about the party for talking about fairness while saying nothing about the unfairness of some people inheriting billions while others inherit nothing, I will say no more. Words fail me! The LibDems enthusiasm for the UK’s absorption into a European State appears to be undimmed and unbounded, alas.