Opinion: The linked vote shares of UKIP and the BNP

The 2010 General Election was a failure for Britain’s two openly xenophobic parties.

UKIP stood in 556 constituencies and lost their deposit in 459 (83%). Their vote share varied between 0.65 and Nigel Farage’s 17.3 in Buckingham where none of the three main parties contested the Speaker’s seat. No other UKIP candidate hit double digits.

The average vote share per UKIP candidate was 3.54.

The BNP stood in 338 constituencies and lost their deposit in 267 (80%). Their vote share varied between 0.4 and Nick Griffin’s 14.6 in Barking. Only two other BNP candidates hit double digits.

Eight out UKIP’s highest ten results were in constituencies where there was no BNP candidate, which suggests UKIP do best where there is no BNP candidate to split a shared pool of supporters. But, nine out of the BNP’s highest ten results were in constituencies were there was a UKIP candidate, which suggests that the presence of a UKIP campaign stimulates a higher BNP result.

The failure of these two parties is a pleasant contrast to 2009 when UKIP came second nationally in the European Elections. Let’s make sure we defeat them there too in 2014.

Antony Hook is a Liberal Democrat campaigner in the South East.

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15 Comments

  • Fair enough, but don’t forget that the overall BNP vote is going up – they came fourth in my constituency.

  • “But, nine out of the BNP’s highest ten results were in constituencies were there was a UKIP candidate, which suggests that the presence of a UKIP campaign stimulates a higher BNP result.”

    OR, that UKIP fielded candidates in the BNPs strongest constituencies, while BNP didn’t do the same in UKIPs strongest constituencies, OR that in most constituencies where both parties have a candidate, most from their common voter pool will choose the more extreme option, the BNP.

  • Xernophobia? What’s that? Dislike of Scientologists who vote UKIP?

  • I don’t agree with any of the premises in the article.

    It would be a huge mistake to think that people voting BNP and UKIP form any sort of coherent ideological bloc.

    They still sweep up a protest vote, the non of the above vote and the I don’t know why I came to the polling booth in the first place vote.

    If “nine out of the BNP’s highest ten results were in constituencies were there was a UKIP candidate,” it merely shows there are pockets of BNP votes – they UKIP candidate can hardly be said to stimulate people voting BNP.
    (how exactly is this meant to happen ?)
    Not surprisingly the anti-UK fringe acvtivists in each area will tend to fall behind one or other party.

    Both parties are still pretty much seen as single issue loonies, perhaps the BNP less so, as it repositioning as a multi-issue lonnies.

    The Conservative in Wells deserved to loose, and should have lost by considerably more. It is mistaken to assume that he would have been the second preference of people who voted UKIP. As the Euro elections showed, a lot of UKIP support can come form all three main parties and supporters of non party.

    People will quite happily vote different ways at different elections, often on local issues or in favour of a particular candidate or for quite odd reasons that defy logic.

  • Could the moderator please check the trash box?

  • David Furness 11th May '10 - 10:54am

    The Lib Dem vote in Ealing North collapsed 30%. I came 4th just behind the Lib Dems and I easily beat UKIP, the Greens and the Christian Party.
    David Furness
    British National Party Candidate for Ealing north.

  • David Furness – BNP scum are not welcome on our site! You will never be part of decent politics. Sod off!

  • isn’t it true that the bnp got 3 times their number of votes but they stood 3 times the number of candidates.? so overall it was static

  • Is not the post by leekliberal very illiberal and does it not violate your policy?
    I am surprised by the number of people who comment but do not know what the ukip policies are.
    I have just read the policy on immigration and it is very similar if not identical to the policy of the lib/con coalition
    Perhaps it wpuld be a good idea for everyone to read our policy boklet.

  • The way you all compare UKIP and the BNP is as if they are the same thing. The BNP are socialists and the UKIP are hard-line tories, mildly thatcherite. If you thought they were the same in any way; you are frankly an idiot. And it says a lot about LibDem supporters if thats what you all think… the sheer irony that you would call UKIP an ignorant party.

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