Pollwatch Day 1 #ge2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38%

Lib Dem Voice doesn’t usually obsess about polls – we round them up on a monthly basis when you can see trends, but we don’t try and read huge significance into every statistical blip. General elections, however, are different.

Like it or not, all of us who are political obsessives will be slavishly following every twist ‘n’ polling turn for the next four weeks. If we move up a single point, it will be because the public loved Steve Webb’s latest pension proposals. If we drop a point, it will be because the media has been ignoring us (again).

Ignore anyone who tries to point out the reality that polls will fluctuate, and trying to pin ups and downs on any specific campaign incidents is to imagine that the British public is paying anywhere like as close attention to politics as we are.

Caveats firmly in place? Check. So let’s get on with our poll-sessing.

There were three polls reported in today’s papers:

    ICM in the Guardian … CON 37%, LAB 33%, LIB DEM 21%
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 41%, LAB 31%, LIB DEM 18%
    Opinium in the Express … CON 39%, LAB 29%, LIB DEM 17%

The Pollwatch headline will report the ‘poll of polls’ calculated by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report blog – for details of how this is calculated, and the hefty health warning with which it should be read, click here. Here’s the score as at 6th April:

    Con 38%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 20%

And some especially good news for Nick Clegg – his personal approval ratings have sky-rocketed in the last month, with a net approval rating of +31% according to YouGov. That was well ahead of Davd Cameron, also up at +17%. Trailing Nick by a country mile was Gordon Brown, with a negative approval rating of -28%.

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This entry was posted in General Election and Polls.


  • Tony Greaves 7th Apr '10 - 5:22pm

    38-30-20 is a reasonable guess at the moment. But if the “Others” get 15%+ as I expect, including Nats, there aren’t enough numbers around for these to last. Something is going to have to give. Question is what will it be?

    Tony Greaves

  • The latest Angus Reid/Political Betting poll has Others at 15% with a 37-26-22 split. The Populus poll (fieldwork carried out by ICM) released today has a 39.3-31.6-20.8 split leaving Others on 8.3. The Labour and Others spread is v. interesting and strongly hints at what will ‘give’/has been giving. I wonder what Labour’s private polls are showing…I’d expect them to be exceptionally twitchy in the days ahead.

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