Two new polls out in today’s papers:
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ComRes, S.Indy/S.Mirror … CON 38%, LAB 34%, LIB DEM 21%
ICM in the S.Telegraph … CON 38%, LAB 33%, LIB DEM 21%
Polls at this stage of the parliamentary cycle (apparently a full 5 years before the next election) are a little academic. Still, let’s give them their moment.
From a Lib Dem perspective, I’m moderately encouraged: our support is down, unsurprisingly, but it has not evaporated overnight. It’s at least arguable that our support might be lower still if Nick Clegg hadn’t struck a deal with the Conservatives: parties which have under-performed at an election tend to suffer in the immediate post-election polls.
There has also been more analysis of first reactions to the Lib-Con coalition government. ICM indicates 64% of voters approve: this includes 87% of Tory voters and 77% of Lib Dem voters (with Labour voters the most disapproving). The poll also shows 63% support for fixed-term parliaments, and 56% backing for a change from first-past-the-post to the Alternative Vote.
ComRes asks a couple of questions designed to achieve a headline. One asks how many voters believe the Lib Dems have “sold out” their principles for power: a plurality, 47%, disagree with the statement – including 61% of Lib Dem voters, 34% agreeing that the party has “sold out”.
The second asks if Nick Clegg “should have opted for a coalition with Labour rather than a deal with the Tories”, a spurious hypothetical as (i) no-one knows what such a deal might have looked like, and (ii) it fails to point out that a Lib-Lab pact was as unacceptable to Labour, as it was arithmatically impossible. In any case, 59% of voters disagree with the statement including 59% of Lib Dem voters.
ComRes also finds majority support for changing from first-past-the-post to the Alternative Vote: 59% back it over 32% favouring the status quo.
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12 Comments
Good Post Even though you’ve lost 3% of your hard-left to Labour, think of the 30% “undecideds” waiting to be convinced that the LibDems are electable, + all those C2’s who didn’t vote for Labour in the nationals. Excelsior!
What you didn’t mention in this poll is that Tory support has gone up in this poll. Now, of course, this doesn’t mean too much now, but lets keep on eye on this, as it may just confirm one of my fears: that people start giving credit to the Tories for the coalition, and the blame to us.
21% is basically where it was before the campaign started, right? So that’s not even a loss, just the evaporation of the rest of the soft vote now that they aren’t being pushed.
No, 21% is 2-3% higher than our average support before the campaign started.
Our support has not collapsed. Seems okay to me. Anyway the GE is 4 years and 358 days away. The polls may fluctuate a little during that time.
Tony Greaves
As I stated before:
Tories: 40%
LibDems: 20%
Labour: 30%
Other: 10%
How do the Labour venom-spewers imagine they will ever form a government without some kind of coalition?
If they “hate” Clegg and the LibDems, and repeat the same churlish attitude towards coalition in 2015 as they did this year, they will be stuck at <50% with any rainbow minus yellow coalition.
The Tories put some phenomenal deals on the table. The Tories can lock in their position with PR. At this moment of crisis, the only sure thing we here from Labour "progressives" is no to PR, no to coalition, no to 55%, no to everything that the moment offers.
And when the Lib-Con government does reasonably well and Labour is locked out of power, OF COURSE it will be that backstabber Clegg who is responsible: never themselves.
Progressive, don't you think?
The secret conference may have ?? backed clegg but the grassroots
are betrayed. The 55% change without consultation is not democracy
but dictatorship (akin to african states) .How long before Lib Dem M Ps
go into opposition
Morrison
Morrison: fixed term Parliaments (whoch is what the 55 per cent is about) have been repeatedly debated and supported at party conferences over the years. Far from being something done “without consultation”, it’s the opposite – it’s doing what the party has repeatedly voted for.
It was also likely that LibDem support would drop slightly as soon as Labour went into opposition and
got rid of Gordon Brown.
As Grumpy says the LibDems have it all to play for – to win the respect and support of the wider electorate who are waiting to see how the coalition behaves – and if it can deliver over the long term.
“… the LibDems have it all to play for – to win the respect and support of the wider electorate who are waiting to see how the coalition behaves – and if it can deliver over the long term”
Even, indeed, especially if it delivers the promised centre-right programme many centre-left voters like me will never vote for you again, so presumably the “wider public” really means you will seek Tory-inclined voters, but I doubt you will make up lost support there. After all why then why vote for the monkey when you can vote for the organ grinder?
It’s way too early to worry about opinion polls. I was expecting worse poll figures than 21%, and I expect our poll figures will drop further. Labour’s poll rating will probably rise during their leadership election, and ours drop as the necessary spending cuts start to come through.
The worst time for us will probably be in a year or two, when the much deeper spending cuts are introduced. Even voters who approve of the tough decisions will feel unhappy, and might be inclined to punish us in opinion polls and local elections.
For the first time in living memory, our party will suffer a mid-term fall in support. We’ll need to keep our nerve.
The big question is not how we do in the polls in the next three years, but how we do after that, when the economy recovers, and voters look back at the responsible way we have engaged in government.
‘mpg’ may be right, that the Tories will get the credit and we’ll be squeezed. But if we play this right, voters may say: “We approve of the government, but if we let in the Tories on their own, it’ll be a very different beast. Let’s vote Lib Dem to keep things sensible and moderate.”
“For the first time in living memory, our party will suffer a mid-term fall in support. We’ll need to keep our nerve.”
If you’re a mayfly, perhaps. But in October 2007 several polls showed Lib Dems support as low as 11%, which of course was less than half what the party had polled in 2005. So it’s not inconceivable that if this government does become really unpopular, poll ratings could drop into single figures. That really would be a test of discipline.
Our LibDem MP, Lynne Feaherstone, posted her views about the budget on her award winning blog site. So far only one person has lent support whilst all other participants in the blog have condemned Lynne for her hypocrisy. Lynne hasn’t responded yet but I wondered what reactions other LibDem MPs are getting from their constituncies ?