Opinion: Put your party first… and second…

I’ve read some of the discussion on Lib Dem Voice about how Liberal Democrats should use their second preferences in the race for London Mayor with some interest. It should be stated up front that much of this speculation is fantastically irrelevant to how Liberal Democrat voters will actually choose. It will only permeate to the wider London electorate if Nick Clegg or another senior media spokesperson endorses Boris or Ken as number two, and even then, like the Green-pact it would be more likely to harm our candidate than influence the final outcome.

Articles like this then are directed at Liberal Democrat activists.

In that respect I don’t propose to dwell much on policy preference or people’s desire to express their personal problems when it comes to our political rivals. Bluntly it will not be a disaster if any of the mainstream candidates are elected. There will be winners and losers, but neither Boris nor Ken is a dangerous incompetent or extremist liable to make decisions so awful that the Capital will be beset by the ten plagues of Egypt in the next four years. At worst London’s voters will be embarrassed by gaffes or irritated by higher taxes and control freakery, while special interests wail and gnash their teeth as their funding is cut

The issue for Liberal Democrat activists then is what result will most likely benefit our future prospects in the unlikely event that our own candidate, Brian Paddick, doesn’t win.

On those criteria I have heard two schools of thought.

The first is that any win for the Conservatives would be the worst outcome. It is always better for the third party when the second party is performing dismally and a win in the race for London would be the start of momentum for Cameron that would improve his chances of a clean sweep in the 2010 General Election. A strong optimistic Conservative party is far more damaging to our prospects of holding or advancing in Parliament than a damaged but ‘popular-enough’ Labour party. Best for us if the Tories look like they’ve snatched a narrow defeat from the jaws of victory (with double-digit poll leads for most of the campaign), while Labour look weak having seen the majority of one of their few popular politicians collapse while losing seats to everyone in the GLA.

Liberal Democrats under those circumstances could claim the Tories can never win London, we are the only party that holds the Mayor to account, and the only party that can seriously challenge Labour in their Borough fiefdoms where Tories fear to tread.

The second is that the combination of an unpopular Labour government and error-prone Conservative Mayor represents a perfect storm. The case for putting Liberal Democrats on your Council, whether against Labour or the Conservatives ‘to keep them honest’, would be irresistible. The opportunities for the kind of anti-establishment campaigns in which the party specialises would be manifold. The Cameron momentum would not be enhanced by such a win, it would be derailed. People would get an unprecedented 18 month foretaste of what a Conservative administration might be like, represented by a Conservative who most people consider entertaining rather than competent, and panders to many of the stereotypes of elitism that Cameron is attempting to expunge from the Conservative image. Ken would blame his defeat on Brown, vocally, and after a short period of brooding would return to his traditional role of fermenting dissent and division within his own party, increasing the perception of Brown and Labour as inward-looking and out of touch.

Liberal Democrats under those circumstances could lead strongly as the face of change people really want. It would be an Obama narrative being neither the establishment nor the established alternative, and sold right, equally devastating.

There are merits to both points of view. In my own case I find the second more convincing in part because I agree with the analysis of the first. Labour are currently the leading party in name only. In every other respect they are already looking defeated with poll ratings akin to the early 1980s and an aura of despair that suggests they want a break, rather than five more years of government. I further don’t think narrow defeat for Boris will hurt Cameron’s momentum. An election result that leaves the political landscape unchanged is unlikely to alter perceptions that it’s time for a change, or that the Conservatives should be given a chance. And Cameron will simply point out that no serious commentator thought Ken would even come close to losing when the race started.

Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. For the Liberal Democrats to advance people need clear reasons not to vote for the other two. That is as true today as it has always been. Our positive vision is important, it’s why people choose us not the Greens or UKIP and why we’re often in second place. But stardust and good vibes alone are not an election-winning formula.

At the moment then all negative attention is on Labour. Only the London Mayoralty represents an opportunity to spread the pain before the general election. There is a risk I suppose that a Johnson regime during an economic downturn, in the build up to the Olympics, would in fact represent a new golden age for London’s reputation, and herald an era of effective low-cost administration that sees world leaders sending their staff on secondment to the GLA to learn how it’s done… you may decide for yourself how plausible that risk is against the regular prospect of David Cameron refusing to comment on the decisions or performance of the most high-profile Conservative in the country.

So, if you are a Liberal Democrat, you should not be thinking of ‘holding your nose’ and voting for ‘x’ number two, or taking the coward’s way out by wasting your vote on the Greens or other minor party with no hope of being in the run-off.

Whichever way you decide… you should be thinking… I’m making my second preference for the Liberal Democrats. Brian Paddick 1, our next best hope for our future 2. That is the best way to think about your second preference, not who do I disagree with least. Tribalism is not always helpful, but in respect of making difficult choices it can at least be comforting that you made a choice for a reason that advances something you believe in rather than against something you don’t.

* Andy Mayer is a London community campaigner and blogs here.

Read more by or more about .
This entry was posted in London and Op-eds.
Advert

44 Comments

  • In narrow partisan terms one advantage of a Boris win is a by-election in Henley. The Tories might hold it, but “Tories hold Henley” would not be news. Or we might win it – which would be news, and would give us momentum. And Labour might lose their deposit, which would be funny.

  • Geoffrey Payne 17th Apr '08 - 10:33am

    I agree with much of the article.
    I think in addition that those of us who are Londoners will have to live with the choice we make.
    For that reason I am against putting party political interests ahead of the interests of Londoners.
    For me the environment is the most important issue. Lib Dems may find technicalities in what Ken proposes as to why his policies would not work on the environment, but at least he has the political will to take radical initiatives. I do not expect that from Boris, so out of the 2 I prefer Ken for my second preference.
    I do not expect Brian Paddick or Nick Clegg to say how they would vote for a second preference, it is not in their or our interests that they do so.

  • In terms of the direction discussed I think we do have to work further to stand out as “the radical alternative”. We need to claim that ground and stick to it. (We also need to be a bit shinier, slick and more professional as a party too!)

    The comparisson to the appeal of Obama was good and I think that we can build to a position as a party where people vote for that. At the moment I think too many people still see us as “just the same as all the rest” rather than a radical alternative.

    When the time is right, we need to be able to conduct a campaign with the strength and impact of “we can change”… and until then we need to build towards that.

    Too often as a party we play for third place. Although we may not expect to actually make first place for some years, unless we can campaign on “We will fight them on the beaches” kind of zeal now… we won’t ever get to a place where we can achieve all we want to. I’m looking forwards to seeing Cleggover speak with as much inspiration, as he bought across in the New Statesman artical he did a while ago. We need to all believe that he could take us all the way, even if that isn’t feasible in the short term. I really want to be convinced. I want to see a leader with BALLS! So far… I can’t help but feel that for all her shortcomings the person in the party with the most balls is probably Sarah Teather!

  • “Do you want somebody who is a really nasty little man in the shape of Ken Livingstone, very unpleasant and rather nasty, or somebody who just appears to be somewhat eccentric but otherwise really harmless as an individual, except I wouldn’t trust him to run anything for me?”

    What on earth could have possessed Paddick to say that?

    So here’s our candidate, presenting it as a choice between the other two, and sending a clear message that the Tory is preferable. It’s difficult enough to get up any enthusiasm for an election we clearly can’t win at the best of times, but really …

    Chris Phillips

  • Alex Wilcock wrote:
    “for goodness’ sake, put your copy of Hello Magazine down for an instant and engage your brain”

    Oh, come on!

    You really don’t think that contrasting a “really nasty little man” with “somebody who just appears to be somewhat eccentric but otherwise really harmless” conveys a preference for Johnson?

    Perhaps you should engage your own brain and read the headline of that BBC report – “Paddick slams ‘nasty’ Livingstone”. But perhaps the BBC is also brainless – or biased – in your view?

    Chris Phillips

  • Alex Wilcock:

    You seem rather confused.

    I initially posted the whole paragraph, including the bit you later picked out yourself. All I was doing in my subsequent response was restoring the balance by reminding you of the parts you had omitted.

    And I didn’t claim you had said Paddick _was_ expressing a “preference for either of them”. Quite the opposite. I said he had expressed a preference for Johnson – which surely only the most partisan apologist could deny. You disagreed. And I asked you whether you really thought that those words didn’t express a preference for Johnson.

    Is it really so hard to read people’s posts properly before launching a misplaced stream of personal insults?

    Chris Phillips

  • cgp, I must agree with Alex Wilcock. Brian Paddick is essentially saying, that the two mainstream candidates are “nasty but less incompetent” and “incompetent but less nasty”. Which one of such options would you pick? I don’t see any endorsement there, though it is possible that the Evening Standard wanted to present it that way.

  • Alex Wilcock

    Blimey, it was ironic enough when you were accusing me of being “selective” after I’d posted the whole paragraph and you’d picked out the bit that suited you.

    Now you’re making up things that Paddick didn’t even say! And Anonymous is even putting them into quotation marks for you…

    Just so that people aren’t fooled into thinking Paddick really said Johnson was “hopelessly incompetent”, or any of the other stuff, I’m copying the whole paragraph from the BBC report again below.

    People can make up their own minds whether this was intended to be a “more damning indictment” of Johnson than of Livingstone, as you’re trying to make out.

    Chris Phillips
    _________________________________

    “Do you want somebody who is a really nasty little man in the shape of Ken Livingstone, very unpleasant and rather nasty, or somebody who just appears to be somewhat eccentric but otherwise really harmless as an individual, except I wouldn’t trust him to run anything for me?”

  • Well ummm…

    I know its a probably bad thing to refer to matters of popular culture for these things… but whether the statement was meant to look bad for ken and better for boris or the other way round or neither, there is a certain way it could be percieved by the general public… (right ly or wrongly)

    Ok, the popular culture reference: Big Brother. Probably I’ll get some criticism for siting it, but it was the first thing that popped into my head with the discussion of the word “nasty”… and it does involve the general population casting a vote of some discription based on how they percieve the participants.

    Nasty Nick: Voted off
    Harmless: Jonty, Craig, Brian…

    Perhaps the London population take voting on political candidates more seriously than Big Brother and reality TV shows. Perhaps not…

  • passing tory 17th Apr '08 - 3:28pm

    Yet another article that bangs on what is to the advantage of the party, rather than who will actually procude a more liberal agenda; all about positioning and very little about ideas.

    From my (completely biased) point of view I would have thought that Boris was a shoe in on the liberal side although I can see why the more SDP-y, and those who prefer bendy busses to cycling as a green solution, might want to cuddle up to Ken. However the sort of political introspective positioning advocated in the article is precisely why the general populus are so tired and fed up of politicians.

  • passing tory 17th Apr '08 - 4:14pm

    Alix, even I have my off days 🙁

    I just called it as I saw it (albeit after three hours kip in the middle of a coding binge). I have read and the piece is more balanced that on first reading, although I am still concerned by phrases such as:

    “The issue for Liberal Democrat activists then is what result will most likely benefit our future prospects in the unlikely event that our own candidate, Brian Paddick, doesn’t win.”

    which (ignoring the statistical anomoly that may indeed be sarcasm) ephasise that activists should be looking for an outcome that is best for the party, rather than what promotes the party’s ideals. For me this is an important distinction, and once activits and politians openly chase party glorification rather than seeting their sights on tackling problems then we should get concerned.

  • Boris has to be a little bit liberal, if only because no military uniform will fit him quite properly, and he steadfastly refuses to get a proper haircut!

    But it isn’t quite enough to be implicitly sympathetic or personally affable when his form of cuddly paternalism leads him to make explicit and offensive random outbursts.

    Chauvinistic Ken, on the other hand, provides for his favoured cliques by imposing nannyish practises, which may work well in a limited scope and according to pre-defined politicised measurements, but are half-hearted attempts at appeasing your better-than-your-worst-nightmare fears.

    It’s all annoyingly unsatisfactory for anyone with properly steadfast liberal and democratic ideals. I have to agree with the article that positive choices are the only way to all-round positive outcomes.

    Alix – it’s not just us who are a bunch of weirdos – everyone has their own peculiarities, peccadillos, insecurities and eccentricities.

    We, however, are the only ones who have admitted it to ourselves, come to terms with the ramifications, and are no longer in denial or trying to keep the world at bay with increasingly desperate attempts at pretence.

    Honesty even cleared Mark Oaten’s conscience!

  • I agree, asquith.

    It’s why headlines from the newly interventionist and interfering Independent laying our leadership open to question election are so off the mark.

    That Clegg/Huhne was so close showed how hard it was to separate the two because that’s how united we are.

    The main event for us is about furthering our mutual aims, so whoever does become London Mayor will continue to see a large critical input from our side – and the same can be said in the rest of the councils around the country too.

  • passing tory 17th Apr '08 - 10:18pm

    I didn’t say anything about factions, only there being a spectrum of outlooks. Or is the Lib Dem party a political black hole that takes all its members views and sucks them into a singularity?

  • Passing Tory, it could help if instead of a one-dimensional Left-Right spectrum you tried to imagine for instance a two-dimensional space with two axis, one for economic liberty and one for individul liberty. The axis for economic liberty would roughly correspond to the traditional Left-Right spectrum, but people move also on the individual liberty axis. Those people who support (at least to some extent) both economic and individual liberty, could be called liberals.

    Traditionally the Conservative Party supports economic liberty, but not always individual liberty (Section 28, to mention only one example), while the Labour Party has at least to some extent supported individual but not economic liberty (this of course has changed during the last decade or so). People who support bot economic and individual liberty aren’t necessarily happy to choose which of the two they prefer to vote for.

    Now, when you have imagined a two-dimensional space, you might begin to imagine even more axis…

  • passing tory 18th Apr '08 - 11:27am

    You know my facebook page, Alix? I am impressed …

    Well, I think trying to extend human outlook/ political positions to 2 axes is still a gross oversimplification although the number of people that you can talk about re-orthogonalisation of 7 dimension political space with is rather limited, for some strange reason 🙂

  • passing tory 18th Apr '08 - 12:51pm

    “is the Lib Dem party a political black hole that takes all its members views and sucks them into a singularity”

    That probably explains the weight of some of our policy documents, yes.

    A mass (surely) that is sadly beyond our event horizon …

  • Alix wrote: “In other words, PT, you need to add the political compass to your Facebook page!”

    No Alix, I would never suggest that. Though I think there might be even more than two political axis, I don’t think that questions about astrology or modern art measure political views.

    If you need, try this, but remember that it is made for americans, and therefore uses american political terminology.

  • MatGB, my worldview is not the same thing as my political view. You seem to be incapable to distinguish private taste from political views, which is sad.

    I have indeed worked in two art galleries selling modern art, but I don’t think that people who don’t appreciate modern art would necessarily be illiberal. I think it is a matter of taste. Likewise, if you have sexual preferences to Asians, for instance, and aren’t sexually interested in Europeans or Africans, that doesn’t make you a racist.

    “Attack the Compass for being secretive about weighting and import, but for two specific questions within a massive question set?”

    Those were just examples, to show its methodology is flawed. I could mention other examples, but I’m tired to do that each time someone suggests that the Political Compass is a good way to measure one’s political views. It might indeed measure something, but it shouldn’t suggest that it measures political views by using the word “political” in its name.

    “The quiz you link is much shorter, and appears to be identical to the World’s Smallest Quiz, which has already been discussed.”

    It IS World’s Smallest Quiz, not just identical to it. You might need to visit an optician. However, it wasn’t linked before during this discussion.

  • “Politics is best described as the study of human interaction within society, and it’s all encompassing by necessity.”

    I define it differently. Politics is about making decision collectively, by the interference of the state, but one can also make decisions individually, for instance to decide what kind of painting to hang on one’s wall, or even not to hang any paintings.

    “But someone seeking to ban modern art would be illiberal, surely?”

    That wasn’t asked in the Political Compass.

    “But then the smallest quiz uses very similar axes, just different labels.”

    Yes, and the World’ Smallest Political Quiz is the original two-dimentional test, devised in 1969 by the political scientist David Nolan, Political Compass is only imitating it without fully understanding what it actually measures.

  • Grammar Police 20th Apr '08 - 1:00am

    Still no nearer to deciding how to cast my 2nd pref . . . I may not even give one, such is my despair at the supplementary vote.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert

Recent Comments

  • expats
    To be fair to the police, they were summoned to respond to a ''racist Attack'... The fact that they acted, in the dark, to what they were expecting to find (esp...
  • Neil Hickman
    And the incessant Farageist claptrap about "wanting to protect our women" was notable by its absence when John Ashby raped a Sikh woman in her home while subjec...
  • Alex Macfie
    There have been several murders with white killers and BAME victims recently. There were no riots following them, from anyone. The far right ignored them becaus...
  • Tom Walker
    Thanks Jack, really interesting read. I'd be really interested to explore how this issue interacts with widening inequality within our society. I see these ...
  • Alex Macfie
    @Chloe: The most similar case to Henry Nowak, but with BAME victim and white killer, is probably the 2013 Murder of Bijan Ebrahimi. https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...