Visions of a possible future for a country usually come from politicians or, more often these days, from think-tanks. This book is a notable exception, its authors coming from backgrounds in the oil and gas industry, the defence sector, and nursing respectively. The authors deliberately set out to make their vision non-political; what they suggest could equally well be achieved in an independent Scotland, in a Scotland that is part of a Federal UK, or a Scotland that has its present devolved powers. Their vision instead is for a Scotland with a renewal of the spirit that characterised the Scottish Enlightenment.
After an introduction to their vision, they go into more detail in six areas: the economy, the environment, renewable energy, healthcare, research and development, and infrastructure; then sum up the synergies that actions in these areas could bring to a Scotland that wholeheartedly embraced them. They do not claim to have painted a complete picture of Scotland in two generations time, but rather a framework to which others can add.
Rather than try to summarise the whole book in a few hundred words, I am going to discuss just one chapter (Looking North) which illustrates their vision.
For centuries, Scotland has primarily looked South, East and West for its trade, but global warming will open up the Northern Sea Route, north of Russia, which cuts shipping times from countries like Japan, China and South Korea by several weeks compared with existing routes through the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal. When this will happen will depend on how fast we reduce our CO2 emissions but could be as early as 2040 if we reach the Paris 2 ºC targets and by 2065 even if the 1.5 ºC goal is achieved. A large natural harbour, like Scapa Flow, at the European end of this route could become a major container port, rivalling Rotterdam. Once here, the containers would be transferred to other container ships for distribution to Baltic and other Northern European countries.
What Scotland needs is people who can look at this vision and say ‘if this happens then I can do that’ and build the economic case for the vision.
Having been fulsome in my praise so far, I have one reservation; their treatment of the role of the arts is almost non-existent, with just a reference to Chinese nouveau riche tourists flooding Scotland and taking in the Edinburgh Festival as part of their Grand Tour. If lockdown has taught us one thing it is the value of content; the New York Metropolitan Opera was able to stream (free) a different opera every day from their extensive back catalogue, itself a result of decades of broadcasting to cinemas around the USA. The Edinburgh Festival has the cachet to attract audiences from across the world; why should they not be able to enjoy immersive performances in their own homes, as if they were in the Usher Hall; indeed why should not an Orcadian in Kirkwall be able to do likewise? The key is high-quality broadband everywhere, another part of their vision where they see Scotland as a ‘virtual city-state’.
With this one reservation, I would heartily recommend this book to all Scottish Liberal Democrats and in particular to their elected representatives.
Scotland 2070 Healthy | Wealthy | Wise, by Ian Godden, Hillary Sillitto and Dorothy Godden is published by College Productions.
* Laurence Cox has been a party member and activist since 1981 and is currently secretary of his local party.
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9 Comments
I would like to expand on my review in the comments. The idea of the ‘virtual city’ is appealing. We have found as a result of lockdown, just how many jobs can be done from home rather than requiring commuting to an office. At the same time there is still a need for some face-to-face contact; Zoom is not the whole answer. We may well find that the future is one of hybrid working with, perhaps, four days at home and one in the office or three days at home and two in the office each week. So we not not only need high-quality broadband (100 Mb/s) but also better transport links. Before reading this book I had not realised that it takes over three hours to reach Inverness by train from Edinburgh, a distance of around 150 miles by road. London to Crewe, a similar distance, is covered in just half of the time by train. For decades, here in England we have been used to fast trains linking our major conurbations and it comes as quite a surprise to find out just how slow trains are in Scotland, even between Glasgow and Edinburgh. So faster physical transport as well as electronic communication is key to the ‘virtual city’. Once in place, it becomes possible to remove duplication; for example the authors suggest a single airport sited where Edinburgh airport is now could quite easily serve both Edinburgh and Glasgow, especially with less air travel than pre-Covid. In time the ‘virtual city’ could spread both northwards and southwards from the Central Belt, creating a ‘virtual city-state’.
Another interesting idea is replacing steel (and brick) in housing with wood. This links to their idea of reforesting Scotland by provinding a market for the commercial forestry sector. There have been recent developments in multi-story timber buildings, for example in Minneapolis (https://www.archdaily.com/908942/mass-timber-shattering-the-myth-of-code-exceptions ) Vancouver (https://www.archdaily.com/879625/inside-vancouvers-brock-commons-the-worlds-tallest-timber-structured-building ) and Stockholm (https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/wooden-skyscraper-stockholm-built-new-technology ) . Politics comes in here, because we have to change building codes to encourage the use of wood and discourage the use of steel and brick, both of which are big generators of greenhouse gases in their manufacture.
The ideas in this book do not only apply to Scotland, their chapter on Reforesting the Wet Desert, could equally well apply to much of Wales and the uplands of Northern England, while the ‘virtual city’ theme could be the key to reviving the smaller towns and cities across the whole UK.
@ Laurence Cox I’m sure the good people of Glasgow will appreciate the advice from a Lib Dem in Harrow who supports closing their airport and clogging up the M8 with more traffic to Ingliston.
@David Raw
I think the authors of the book, who are all Scottish, understand the issues with Scottish airports better that you or I do. Yours is the sort of carping criticism that is only too common on these pages.
@ Laurence Cox “the authors suggest a single airport sited where Edinburgh airport is now could quite easily serve both Edinburgh and Glasgow”.
Come off it, Laurence. As a resident of Scotland living not far from Edinburgh (and as a former elected member of a Council served by Edinburgh Airport) and who in normal times has used both Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports (and the M8) there’s nothing carping about saying closing Glasgow Airport and merging it into one airport at Ingliston is a rather odd idea.
No doubt if I suggested re-opening Hendon Airport the good Lib Dem burghers of Harrow would be up in arms collecting signatures and issuing focus leaflets against it.
@ David,
Whilst you may know something about Scottish airports, your knowledge of London Borough boundaries leaves something to be desired, as RAF Hendon is in the London Borough of Barnet and has rather been built over. Are you perhaps confusing it with RAF Stanmore Park?
No, Mark. They’d demolish the Grahame Park housing estate in Hendon and fly over Harrow ….. hence multiple focus leaflets appearing like confetti.
There are plenty of Scottish engineers who would enjoy doing it – for a wee
consideration. Happy Hogmanay to you both, and to Laurence, when it comes.
@David Raw
If you took the trouble to read the book instead of making your carping comments, you would appreciate that the authors describe improvements in ground transportation that have already been demonstrated but are not yet commercialised. If your vision of Scotland in fifty years time is so blinkered that you cannot see any change from today, then you are part of the problem not part of the solution.
I have flown into both Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports as part of my job in the past so I know what communications to their respective cities are like; your comments on Hendon show that you know nothing about London and its airports.
Note to Mark Valladares: RAF Stanmore Park never had a runway. Like RAF Bentley Priory, also in Stanmore, it was a house (Stanmore Hall) in extensive grounds taken over by the RAF before WW2. It is now a housing estate.
@ Laurence Cox Well, I do seem to have stirred up the carps in the small pond of Harrow Lib Dems – but, sorry, I don’t apologise for objecting to the prospect of a mega airport in Christine Jardine’s constituency, (and I don’t think her voters would be thrilled) , or objecting to the closing of Glasgow Airport (increasing CO2 emissions on the M8…. especially through Glasgow).
Actually, I do know the Hendon area. I spent many happy hours at the Colindale Newspaper archive (when it existed) researching for my first degree (UCL), and I occasionally popped into RAF Hendon to pay my respects to the last Hawker Typhoon (like the one my Dad once flew).
Never mind, Laurence, your efforts to advertise your friends’ book deserved an interview with Parkinson, but I’m sure your friends are grateful.