- There are nine countries to which Romanians and Bulgarians can travel to from 1 January: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxemburg, Malta, Netherlands, Spain (only Romanians), the UK and Switzerland.
- There are around 6.5 million Romanians and 2.1 million Bulgarians in the age group 20-39, 8.6 million in total.
- So far, 1.9 million Romanians and 0.35 million Bulgarians have already emigrated to other EU countries (Eurostat 2010, Open Society Insititute Sofia, 2011), including 80,000 Romania-born persons to the UK (ONS 2011)[UK Office National Statistics] and 160,000 to Germany (German Office of Migration Studies [BAMF], 2013).
- Labour and skills shortages are reported from Bulgaria and in both countries some immigration as well as return migration has been observed (OECD 2012).
- Analysis from Bulgarian experts in 2011 found that migration from Bulgaria has been significantly decreasing since the peak in the early 2000. Both Bulgaria and Romania have ageing and shrinking populations, with some of the lowest fertility rates in Europe and both have rising standards of living. Unemployment in Romania is 6.6% and falling, in the UK it is now 7.6%.
- Denmark, with its growing economy and generous welfare state, opened its borders to A8 nationals in 2009, yet in 2010 only attracted about 2,500 Romanians and 1,200 Bulgarians but no ‘floods’ (OECD 2012).
Facts from analysis by : Franck Duvell, Senior Researcher at the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS) at the University of Oxford
* Jemima Bland is the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Candidate for East Worthing and Shoreham
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7 Comments
Jemima Bland is, I think, right in saying we don’t have that much to be worried about in terms of a “flood” of Eastern European immigration.
What, however, she doesn’t say is that there is a new wave of Southern European immigration as a result of the jobs crisis there. If you look at the figures below, there has been a major change in the pattern of migration in the last couple of years.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/233032/nino-statistical-bulletin-aug-13.pdf
In particular, in the last year, the number of National Insurance numbers issued to people from Spain is up 50% to 46,000, from Italy by 35% to 33,000, from Portugal up by 43% to 25,000. and from Greece up by 44% to 9,000. That’s 112,000 in just one year from four countries.
Sorry, but we can’t just “chillax” about this. We actually have to register people’s concerns and say what we are proposing to do to help people cope with this movement of people.
Pretending it isn’t happening or doesn’t have an impact is no longer a viable position for the Lib Dems to adopt and will do us enormous and possible terminal electoral damage.
RC
Interesting point, but without the free movement of labour Spain and the rest of the EU could be in a much worse position financially. I have a number of Spanish friends that have come over here to work (all young-ish without dependants) with some of them sending money back home. None of them are claiming benefits and are working damn hard, paying tax to the UK government.
At some point in the future there could be a jobs crisis in the UK and people will be glad they can move anywhere in the EU to find work.
“At some point in the future there could be a jobs crisis in the UK and people will be glad they can move anywhere in the EU to find work.”
At some unknowable point, possibly decades hence. These countries have had higher unemployment than the UK for many years. Most of them have lower per capita incomes, so the likelihood of large numbers of UK citizens going to seek work in Spain or Portugal is virtually zero for the foreseeable future.
“but without the free movement of labour Spain and the rest of the EU could be in a much worse position financially. ”
Sorry, but since when did we become custodians of the financial position of Spain and the rest of the EU? They created the current crisis by locking themselves into a currency where there is no chance of adjustment and they are forced to undertake austerity measures to remain within it and we are supposed to pick up the pieces?
Yes, let’s not pretend that people from elsewhere in the EU coming to the UK doesn’t have an effect. But let’s also not pretend it’s a negative one.
Let’s also not forget the millions of Brits who now live and work in the EU outside the UK and the many who have retired to Spain, Portugal, France, Italy or indeed those who have moved East attracted by rock bottom house prices in Romania and Bulgaria [and incidentally pricing locals out of the housing market].
What Farage, the Daily Fail and others fail to mention is that if we left the EU or tried to stop EU citizens coming here to work, then the same rules could well be applied to Brits abroad. Have these people any plans on how to house, feed and support the ex pat community if they were all sent home?
@ RC – “Sorry, but since when did we become custodians of the financial position of Spain and the rest of the EU?”
Quite.
Boston, Dover, Fenland and Rugby, all towns where that message would be rejected firmly.
Jemimma Bland, you are confusing the EU right to travel with the right to work. Romanians and Bulgarians had the right to travel visa free in the EU since 2007. What they did not have until 2014 was the full working rights in the UK and the countries you mentioned.