Well, this is a bit of all right.
Market Logan (Harborough) result:
LDEM: 45.2% (+9.0)
CON: 34.0% (-1.3)
LAB: 9.2% (-5.9)
GRN: 6.3% (-7.1)
UKIP: 5.3% (+5.3)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 10, 2015
Good increase in vote share. Look what happened to Labour and Green vote. It looks like the Labour vote has gone to UKIP, though.
But UKIP tanked elsewhere. This is even better news:
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire) result:
LDEM: 45.0% (+13.8)
CON: 31.8% (+5.9)
UKIP: 15.6% (-16.9)
LAB: 7.5% (-2.9)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 10, 2015
Nice work, Stevo Greenall
@caronmlindsay get down to Huntingdon east #libdemfightback I just took the seat back from UKIP
— Greenall4HuntsEast (@StevoGreenall) December 10, 2015
In Scotland, in an area where we have no record of doing well, our vote tripled from 2012. Tripling doesn’t make it a big number, but it’s progress.
Blantyre (South Lanarkshire) first prefs.
LAB: 47.2% (-7.0)
SNP: 39.6% (+8.9)
CON: 4.5% (+0.6)
SSP: 3.9% (+3.9)
LDEM: 2.9% (+2.2)
UKIP: 1.9%
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 10, 2015
We’re still awaiting the actual results from two Bournemouth seats, which have been held by the Tories.
Update: and here they are:
Kinson South (Bournemouth) result:
CON: 520
CON: 509
LAB: 471
LAB: 371
UKIP: 313
BIA: 168
BIA: 116
GRN: 63
LDEM: 61
LDEM: 60
GRN: 54
PAT: 8
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 11, 2015
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings. You can find her on Bluesky at caronmlindsay.bsky.social
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19 Comments
Nice work indeed. But don’t assume the Labour vote has gone to UKIP. It’s also important to check turnout and when each seat was last fought to understand the swings.
Good news at last but one swallow…………
Quite so, John – but I think we are now at a net gain of around 15 swallows (I’m sure someone else will have the exact figure 🙂 )
Caron Lindsay | Fri 11th December 2015 – 7:37 am Paul Kennedy is right. UKIP: 5.3% (+5.3) implies that UKIP did not stand last time (or stood and got zero votes). Their vote this time may have come from people who did not choose to vote last time. As for the Labour vote, it could be anything from national troubles, to a weak local party in that ward, to a by-elelction in December competing with Christmas shopping.
Yeah, here’s hoping for a ‘Net Gain Year’ after May 2016.
Yes but also publish other results, not so good at all. Bournemouth, Fylde etc.
Does anyone know when the Huntingdon seat was last fought ?
In Kinson S (Bournemouth) our vote fell from 9% to 4% but was the one that was rerun because voters had been given the wrong ballot papers so the changes may not mean much.
So far I have found 16 seats last fought in May where we stood both times, the changes range from a fall of 5% to a rise of 39%. Of the 16 only 4 show falls with the bulk of the increases lying between 5% & 15%. The fightback seems to be real but so far its making no impact on the way we are seen Nationally.
It’s time the party (or some of it’s supporters) stopped putting a gloss on local government by-elections.
Yes, some outstanding results in Huntingdon and Market Harborough – BUT – some abysmal ones elsewhere. The party needs to find out WHY with a proper ‘post mortem’. W as it lack of effort with just a paper campaign to ‘show the flag’ ? If so the party needs to get a grip now and lay down some ground rules for a reasonable campaign……… otherwise such results will lead to long term disillusion and the party will finally wither away. There is no substitute for hard work on the doorstep.
In both the Bournemouth parliamentary seats in 2010 the Liberal Democrats polled over 31% and we always came a good second there ……. clearly the benefit of having the ‘biggest ever’ Party Conference last September didn’t rub off this week because we polled under 4% and came behind the Greens. In Fylde we used to come a respectable second as recently as 2010…… 5% this time. The biggest eyebrow raiser for me was Newport two weeks ago where we got 7 (yes, seven) votes three less than is needed to complete a nomination form. In South Lanarkshire ‘tripling’ the vote is pure gloss….. we came behind Tommy Sheridan’s candidate.
In my young days Michael Meadowcroft used to run the local government office at HQ (funded by Richard Wainwright)…We had proper training for running a proper campaign with a full canvass and ‘Shuttleworth’ sheets. If the Lib Dems don’t get their act together again and behave professionally (dare I say honestly ?) then all talk about building up from the grass roots is just so much hot air.
Maybe if the former Chief Exec wants to work his passage back he could be used to put a bit of pep and effort into proper local by-election campaigning ?
If the media would stop treating us as though we were or are the wilderness party we might get somewhere. The amount of coverage the greens and Caroline Lucas get is frustrating. Half our votes and one mp , on mainstream television regularly.Or its Jenny Jones , recently on tv saying Syria under Assad was a good place to live .Compete with the , yes indeed.
Meant to say , compete with them, yes indeed.
By elections are won and lost for a variety of reasons. A good local candidate who puts in the work all year round can still win against the trend. The REAL test will be the next set of local elections in May; but even that is no real predictor of success in a General Election.
It is VITAL that all eight of our MPs (and thank goodness there will still be eight) need to put themselves about a bit more – and that means actually being seen in parliament at PMQs and the media in general. It took us over 30 years of ‘pavement politics’ to get into government, for which we had never really prepared. We can’t wait 30 years again. Sorry, ALDC, we need a new game plan.
David Raw 11th Dec ’15 – 12:16pm ” … The party needs to find out WHY with a proper ‘post mortem’. ”
That language sounds rather negative and may put people off. Compare the learning experiences of the airline industries, which has resulted in greatly increased safety for passengers, crew and those on the ground, with the fear in some professions relating to professional indemnity insurance.
We need to speak out on issues where our view is principled and popular , not one or the other . We should be the leaders of in Europe , but for a reformed EU, very strongly reformed. We should be putting forward better arguments for immigration , uniting families , humanitarian etc ,need for doctors , not the economic ones emphasising business only. We should express understanding of those in communities feeling marginalised , whether due to prejudice or being run down and , indeed, often , overcrowded, and given few additional resources to cope.We should be a Liberal voice , not just for those in prisons who should n t be there , and many should n t , but , a cause we champion , the victims of heinous crime , victims often ignored by the faceless governmental or judicial processes. We should say the centre left thing and the central thing too , often overlooked We are a party of common sense .We need to be heard as that. With a likeable , able and mainstream leadership , which we ve got , it could yet happen . Not if we sound off only on a part of the landscape we could and should re claim .
And find ways to get any of us with media experience with a fresher voice , onto the media to put our party s case , not just the same faces. Vince Cable is a statesman. He s also now more or less , retired. I always like to see him . But let s have others.
@ Richard Underhill My comment : “The party needs to find out WHY with a proper ‘post mortem’. ”
Your response : “That language sounds rather negative and may put people off.”
There are times when the truth is uncomfortable, Richard. I think getting less than 3% with – one assumes – little effort – ” puts people off”. Either this party is a serious party with a contribution to make to the public weal or it is no more than a bit of self indulgence. It’s not a question of fear – it’s a question of professionalism and deserving the trust and support of the electorate.
To give Tim credit, and I do, South Lakeland Council is a classic example of how to gets things done and how to win and retain power. I know that because I was the Liberal Democrat leader on that Council between 1974 and 1977. Those lessons – basically hard graft – need to be applied nationally.
Putting a gloss on uncomfortable truths is both dishonest and does the party no service. The Liberal Democrats – especially the Liberal Democrats – need a version of Pravda like they need a hole in the head.
The reality is that the party is at least putting up candidates and wnning isn’t everything.Showing your flag I important and at least the Greens and other minor parties are being given a run for their money for third or fourth place. It isn’t all just about first lace getting out there and taking part is the main thing.
There is a need for simple ,easy to identify policies and values, that candidates can get across to constituents and build on the progress so far. There needs to be more support from HQ and leading Libdems, to encourage the new members to do more than just register. A lunch with Paddy Ashdown – or equivalent – would certainly be popular and consolidate their allegiance. We must build up the core support – if we are to get back to 2010.!
The seat we gained fromUKIP in Huntingdon East was last fought in May 2015, when it was won by the Tories. We now hold the other two seats. The victory was achieved by a lot of hard work, over many years, by the candidate (and former councillor) and by the other Lib Dem councillor in the ward Mike Shellens.
Hope that helps.