Tag Archives: liberal democrat constituencies

How did our constituencies vote in the EU Referendum?

It’s obvious from the maps published after the referendum that several former Liberal Democrat seats voted remain – Cambridge, Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes and others. It’s equally obvious that plenty didn’t – all of them in Cornwall and Devon, for example. But because the results were counted and declared by local authority area, we haven’t been able to tell how individual constituencies voted – until now.

Chris Hanretty, Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, has tried to estimate how all the 574 Parliamentary seats in England and Wales voted (it’s a reasonable assumption that all or almost all Scottish seats voted remain). He’s taken each council area result and applied demographic factors – average age in the area, the proportion of residents with degrees, average income, etc. – which we know are strongly associated with voting leave or remain to break it down to constituency levels. He can’t be precise, of course, but his model fits reasonably well the results in the 26 local authority areas which are also parliamentary constituencies.

He expresses the result as an estimated leave vote with a prediction interval (i.e. a range of outcomes, since we can’t be precise) on either side. You can see his reasoning, and download the full spreadsheet here.

Based on his calculations, this is how all the seats Liberal Democrats won at the 2010 election break down, in descending order of the remain vote (seats we hold now are in bold):

Posted in News | Also tagged | 16 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • John Waller
    Tom you say: (Trump) has already threatened Denmark with “massive tariffs” unless it sells him Greenland. Conversely, if he likes a country’s policies, Tr...
  • John Waller
    My father was a Captain in the ACS Heavy Transport before Allenby’s attack on Beersheba on 31 October 2017. He had been in the British Army since the start o...
  • Joseph Bourke
    The risk of displacement from Gaza was not the only threat in Trump’s press conference. Asked whether he would support Israel annexing West Bank “areas”, ...
  • Suzanne Fletcher
    Yes it is tough being a councillor, but yes stick at it in trying to make a difference. You find out how much you did and were appreciated when you retire! The...
  • Craig Levene
    'it’s holding back our country and keeping people poor' Plenty of poverty around in 2016, as there is now. The UK has significant regional divides, none of ...