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Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper than the national polls on which so much political commentary relies.

I was on a panel – together with ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman and the Fabian Society’s Marcus Roberts – to discuss its findings yesterday. Below are 10 points I jotted down from …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 21 Comments
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    "Labour and the Greens want to do things for you, the Conservatives and Reform want to do things to you, but the Liberal Democrats want to do things along with ...
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    Thanks to Tom for a broad brush summary of how attitudes to what has happened in Palestine have changed since the formation of the state of Israel. However, I ...
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    Excellent piece, Josh. As for seeking others' thoughts on the pitch, here are mine: Labour and the Greens want to do things for you, the Conservatives and R...