Tag Archives: marcus roberts

Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper than the national polls on which so much political commentary relies.

I was on a panel – together with ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman and the Fabian Society’s Marcus Roberts – to discuss its findings yesterday. Below are 10 points I jotted down from …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 21 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarPeter Martin 5th Jul - 4:06pm
    @ Paul Barker, In principle nothing needs a referendum. Not even a constitutional matter. But if you think you see Tory and Labour MPs voting...
  • User AvatarAntony Watts 5th Jul - 3:21pm
    I would add * make technology, digital, work for green
  • User AvatarAntony Watts 5th Jul - 3:18pm
    Stop belly aching. No good just shouting "the government didn't do this or that. Just say what we would do, loudly and long
  • User AvatarPaul Barker 5th Jul - 3:16pm
    The "Agreement" between Us & Labour in 1997 was entirely done on the basis of nods & winks & was simply about not targetting each...
  • User AvatarMax Wilkinson 5th Jul - 3:11pm
    Thank you to everybody who has replied. I appreciate you all taking the time. Some, including Nick and James, have spoken about the need to...
  • User AvatarAntony Watts 5th Jul - 3:11pm
    OK so climate is ZERO by 2040. Sorry but we need more than (or less than) ZERO to get us out of the mud. We...