Tag Archives: marcus roberts

Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper than the national polls on which so much political commentary relies.

I was on a panel – together with ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman and the Fabian Society’s Marcus Roberts – to discuss its findings yesterday. Below are 10 points I jotted down from …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 21 Comments
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  • Alex Macfie
    "those on the left don’t tend to see individuals but see people as members of identity groups," so do many on the Right, using "identity groups" to divide peo...
  • Jana
    My son-in-law is a police officer. He tells me that there is no point arresting shop-lifters as they always get bailed and will be shop-lifting again within the...
  • Jason Connor
    Well done for putting in the effort in an inner London constituency, and showing how it can be done. There have been similar issues in Greenwich where the rulin...
  • Jason Connor
    I so agree with David Raw. Middle England is not the only constituency worth targeting likewise for Scotland and Wales. Left behind areas and those with und...
  • Jason Connor
    "Treating people as individuals" - these traits can and are seen by people on the left. Social liberalism is not a classic centre right liberal philosophy. It i...