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Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper than the national polls on which so much political commentary relies.

I was on a panel – together with ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman and the Fabian Society’s Marcus Roberts – to discuss its findings yesterday. Below are 10 points I jotted down from …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 21 Comments
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  • Jason Connor
    Yes thanks for the analysis. I don't think it matters too much for the winning party if their % share falls. The Lib Dems have won seats recently with % share d...
  • Matt Wardman
    This is good commentary, though I rather disagree. Trump (and his manipulators on the "America Alone" US far right in his Government have had an agenda to re...
  • paul barker
    Thanks to the Team for the new, expanded coverage, much appreciated. In five of the six contests Reform had stood before & in each case their Vote Share fe...
  • Jana
    Looks like a night that would have pleased Restore who contested all 6 seats, with a huge 27.8% in Huncoat and other results between a low of 4.4% and 11.3%. ...
  • theakes
    Embarrassing....