Competing demographic trends inside Israel and its Western traditional supporters in are stacked against the Jewish state.

This week’s round of British-led sanctions against goods produced by West Bank settlers is a recognition of changing Western attitudes towards Israel.

Democracies by their very nature are dominated by short-term electoral cycles of two, four or five years. Demographic attitudinal changes, on the other hand, run over decades. Governments can postpone responding to the demographic realities because the electoral penalty is initially small. Then, quite suddenly, the accumulated change becomes impossible to ignore. Especially if there is a catalyst such as Gaza and the Iran War.

Israel was founded by a political elite with broadly European social-democratic institutions. In the first decades of its existence, Western publics — particularly after the Holocaust and during wars in which Israel appeared to be the vulnerable underdog — identified strongly with it. Living on an Israeli kibbutz became one of the “IN” ways of spending the summer or gap year.

But Israel also changed as its demographic make-up became less European  and more Asian, African and home-grown. These Israelis grew up on the constant shadow of war and they became preoccupied with security and nationalism and increasingly distrustful of Palestinians, Arabs and Iran. Young people in the West became more aware of human-rights-based issues and the Palestinians.

During the 1967 Six-day War a Gallup poll showed that 56 percent of Americans backed Israel. Only four percent supported the Arab cause. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War American support was up to 54 percent. Support for the Arabs remained in single figures.

The arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu and a shift towards more right-wing, nationalistic and security-focused policies started a shift in Western attitudes. In 2010 America’s favourable attitudes towards Israel dropped to 40 percent. The drop was even more marked in Europe. Only 17 percent of Britons expressed support for Israel in 2010. In France the figure was 20 percent and in Canada 23 percent.

After Gaza and the Iran War the drop is more acute. In June 2026, American support for Israel had dropped to 37 percent for Americans and 25 percent among the British. But, more important, was the generational gap because that is the best indicator of future trends. In 2026, among 18 to 34 year olds, 23 percent expressed support for Israel while the figure for the 50-plus generation was 49 percent. In Britain the figureswere16 percent and 30 percent respectively.

Polls in Israel reflect a markedly different picture. Only 13 percent of Israeli Jews 18-34 supported a detailed two-state peace package solution compared to 40 percent for the over 55’s. The disparity is mirrored in issues such as Gaza, the Lebanon and Iran.

In Israel the demographic trends are moving in opposite directions from that of young Western voters. In the West the young especially are becoming increasingly critical of Israel, while young Jewish Israelis are generally more nationalistic, dismissive of the two-state solution, tougher on security issues and more hawkish  than their parents.

The British-led sanctions are largely symbolic.  They will have no impact on the Israeli economy and Israel will easily find ways to circumvent the sanctions on the West Bank settlers. But because of the origin of the sanctions, they are hugely symbolic. The Balfour Declaration was made by the British government which was the colonial power in the key years before independence. France supplied a young Israel with the technology that led to its nuclear arsenal. Canada’s Lester Pearson was a key diplomatic figure that resulted in partition and the creation of the Jewish state.

America has not joined the sanctions. But significantly, neither the State Department nor the White House has opposed them. The US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee vociferously attacked them and threatened sanctions. But as ambassador, Huckabee implements policies. He does not make them.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is reported by Axios to have briefed President Trump before the announcement and Trump agreed not to oppose the initiative. He is reportedly fed up with Netanyahu whom he blames for dragging him into yet another Middle East War. Trump may also be  starting to become aware of the changing demographics.

And demographics indicate that this week’s symbolic sanctions are only the start of a possibly inevitable deterioration in relations between Israel and its traditional support base in the West. Tomorrow’s prime ministers, presidents, diplomats and captains of industry in the West will be increasingly sceptical if not opposed to Israel. While in the Jewish state, attitudes are moving in the polar opposite direction.

The divergence increases the likelihood of a self-reinforcing cycle. As younger Western voters become less sympathetic to Israel, Western governments will find it easier to exert pressure on Jerusalem. Israeli voters, feeling increasingly isolated and threatened, may respond by supporting even harder security policies. Those policies, in turn, will further alienate the Western generation coming to power. The sanctions announced this week may be largely symbolic. The demographic forces behind them are not.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”