Tag Archives: politicalbetting.com

What will happen to the Lib Dems in Thursday’s local elections?

Lib Dems winning hereThere are just three campaigning days left until this Thursday’s local elections taking place across much of England.*

It’ll be tough-going for the Lib Dems…

The last time these seats were fought, in 2009, was a high water-mark for the party: we polled a national equivalent vote-share of 25%. As I said in my morning-after-the-night-before round-up here, they “were, generally, pretty damn good for the Lib Dems”.

Since entering government, the party’s become used to taking a battering in local elections. As the national polls indicate, our vote share has roughly halved since the Coalition was formed. Because we poll higher in local than national elections, this means we’re likely to secure around 15-16% of the popular vote on Thursday. If that’s the case, our number of councillors will again decline.

Posted in Local government and News | Also tagged , , , and | 26 Comments

Is David Herdson right about Labour and the Lib Dems?

Over on Political Betting, David Herdson has several times made comments such as this:

Since the start of March, there have been sixty national opinion polls published and they have shown a remarkable consistency in the total share identified for Labour plus Lib Dems. When one party rises, the other tends to fall.

I’ve been intrigued by this because David certainly knows his stuff, but that’s not been my impression of the data – which has been that changes in Lib Dem support are more equally balanced between Labour and Tory than the much more lopsided position David suggests.

So I’ve done …

Posted in Polls | Also tagged | 8 Comments

MPs’ Expenses Repayments: how the parties compare

I’m very grateful to a pseudonymous Lib Dem commenter, Goupillon, on PoliticalBetting.com for emailing through to LDV his tables showing how the parties compare when it comes to the expenses repayments demanded of MPs by Sir Thomas Legg.

The tables which follow are based on data from the list of expenses
miscreants provided by the BBC.

Total expenses to be paid back based on party affiliation:

    Labour: £446,416.28
    Conservative: £449,821.83
    Lib Dem: £42,945.18
    Others: £38,575.96
    Total: £977,759.25

MPs per party who have been called on to pay back expenses:

(not including those who have successfully appealed against Sir Thomas Legg’s ruling in their individual cases)

    Labour: 180
    Conservative:

Posted in News | Also tagged | 13 Comments

What does the future hold for British political blogging?

Predictions that the next general election will be the one in which the internet will make a huge impact have regularly come and gone. Post-Obama ready yourself for another such clutch of predictions, but underneath this punditry froth the internet has got on with quietly shifting the way politics works. It’s been more at the unglamorous organisational end (imagine trying to organise a campaign without email) than at the eye-catching systems-shattering dramatic end beloved of pundits, but it’s been a major change nonetheless.

Following in the footsteps of email, blogging has also established a firm place in the logistics of politics, even if its impact on the overall style and conduct of politics is less clear and less dramatic. Blogs have become a key news medium for people involved in or significantly interested in politics, they have become a key part of the flow of news to and from journalists and for some MPs and candidates they reach local audiences large enough to be a significant factor in their election efforts.

Posted in Online politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , and | 5 Comments

Revealed: the three blogs Lib Dem MPs respect

Iain Dale has the results of a ComRes survey of 151 MPs (undertaken back in April-May this year) to find out which journalists and which bloggers they most respect. Here are the findings:

Posted in News and Online politics | Also tagged , , and | 8 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarYousuf Farah 17th Nov - 11:58pm
    @Peter Martin Come on, there is no way the Lib Dems will form any kind of coalition or pact with the Tories after the election,...
  • User AvatarYousuf Farah 17th Nov - 11:45pm
    @RossMcL Well the SNP won it in the EU parliament elections this year, so that's usually a good indicator that the people there might vote...
  • User AvatarRossMcL 17th Nov - 11:00pm
    @Yousouf "It’s very likely that she will lose her Westminster seat." Really? How do you know that Yousouf? Are you local to East Dunbartonshire? Do...
  • User AvatarPaul Barker 17th Nov - 10:34pm
    Its much too early to give up on our chances in this Election, the situation is highly unstable. The Government is currently more unpopular than...
  • User AvatarAshley 17th Nov - 10:04pm
    I’ve seen and heard gender and age used in these reports about us being excluded from the debates. Neither is relevant. What is relevant is...
  • User AvatarPeter Martin 17th Nov - 9:44pm
    I'm trying to make some sense of Jo Swinson's line in this election. The Lib Dems seem to be stuck at around 15%-16% of the...