Tag Archives: colin rawlings

What will happen to the Lib Dems in Thursday’s local elections?

Lib Dems winning hereThere are just three campaigning days left until this Thursday’s local elections taking place across much of England.*

It’ll be tough-going for the Lib Dems…

The last time these seats were fought, in 2009, was a high water-mark for the party: we polled a national equivalent vote-share of 25%. As I said in my morning-after-the-night-before round-up here, they “were, generally, pretty damn good for the Lib Dems”.

Since entering government, the party’s become used to taking a battering in local elections. As the national polls indicate, our vote share has roughly halved since the Coalition was formed. Because we poll higher in local than national elections, this means we’re likely to secure around 15-16% of the popular vote on Thursday. If that’s the case, our number of councillors will again decline.

Posted in Local government and News | Also tagged , , , and | 26 Comments

Lib Dems and Labour neck-and-neck on 28%, says voting study

Today’s Times publishes a study by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University based on actual votes cast in the dozens of by-elections that take place for council seats each month. Here are the headline findings:

It shows that although David Cameron’s Conservatives have a 10-point lead over Labour as the year draws to a close, the gap has been narrowing since the summer. The by-election model, which has been reworked to take account of different patterns of competition between the parties, has the Tories on 38%, with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats on 28%.

The calculations

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , and | 13 Comments
Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarFrank West 2nd Jun - 8:49am
    It seems to be a combination of proximity and duration of that proximity that puts people at risk, so passing in the street where no-one...
  • User AvatarChris Cory 2nd Jun - 8:11am
    @Joseph Bourke. I am grateful to you for your summary of Jo Grimond's politics. A commitment to a more equal society, but combined with real...
  • User AvatarGeoff Reid 2nd Jun - 7:40am
    Chris Cory. Radical can be one of those slippery political words that can be attached to a wide range of politicians. Andrew Marr described Thatcher...
  • User AvatarThomas 2nd Jun - 5:25am
    I am also a strong advocate of state-funded universities, like most pre-2010 Libdems. State-funded university system will actually improve meritocracy by removing the incentive of...
  • User AvatarThomas 2nd Jun - 5:18am
    Joe Bourke – Two very radical ideas that I just came across are export promotion and export discipline. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-20/economists-struggle-to-explain-how-poor-countries-grow-rich You really should read the part...
  • User AvatarThomas 2nd Jun - 5:16am
    Joe Bourke - Two very radical ideas that I just came across are export promotion and export discipline. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-08-20/economists-struggle-to-explain-how-poor-countries-grow-rich You really should read the part...