Today’s Times publishes a study by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University based on actual votes cast in the dozens of by-elections that take place for council seats each month. Here are the headline findings:
It shows that although David Cameron’s Conservatives have a 10-point lead over Labour as the year draws to a close, the gap has been narrowing since the summer. The by-election model, which has been reworked to take account of different patterns of competition between the parties, has the Tories on 38%, with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats on 28%.
The calculations for December are based on an analysis of voting patterns in 61 contests across the country over the past three months, in which nearly 85,000 votes were cast in total.
And how does this compare with the equivalent period in 1996, the year before Tony Blair came to power?
Rallings and Thrasher have compared the results now with the period a few months before the 1997 election. Then, Labour was on 43%, the Tories 31% and the Lib Dems 23%.
And how would such voting percentages translate into Parliamentary seats, according to Prof. Thrasher?
Translated across the country on the basis of the new constituency boundaries that come into force in 2010, such a result would certainly see David Cameron installed as prime minister but heading a minority government. The Tories would have won over 60 more seats than Labour, with Labour losing more than 100 constituencies — nearly one in three of its current complement of MPs. Cameron, however, with just 311 seats, would be 15 short of the 326 needed for an overall parliamentary majority.”
No Lib Dem figure is given, but if we assume ‘Others’ (Northern Ireland, SNP, Plaid et al) are at roughly 30-35, then Thrasher and Rawlings model appears to place the Lib Dems on c.50 seats. That would seem to me a little on the low side for a model showing a 10% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems since 1997, and only a minimal swing from the Lib Dems to Tories. We shall see.
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13 Comments
If the Lib Dems just came out and said that they would, “UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES” support a minority Labour Government – I predict they could easily push this corrupt Labour Party into third place.
I would be happy to vote for them if it wasn’t for fear of letting the appalling Labour Party back in via the back door.
What this shows very usefully is that the Lib Dem local government vote tends to run about 5-6% above its likely General Election result. The Rallings and Thrasher figures above and the County elections and General on the same day in 1997, 2001 and 2005 tend to show that. Thus what the figures above really show is a Lib Dem General Election figure of about 22%, Bearing in mind the current 19% the Lib Dems are in the polls, these figures seem to show that when real voting occurs and people vote tactically in the 100 or so seats where over half the Lib Dem membership is concentrated they should increase by about 3% during the campaign.
If the Lib Dems just came out and said that they would, “UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES” support a minority Tory Government – I predict they could easily push this corrupt Labour Party into third place.
I would be happy to vote for them if it wasn’t for fear of letting the appalling Tory Party back in via the back door.
Oh, no, wait. Perhaps the Lib Dems should try to promote a Liberal Democrat agenda by working constructively with other parties, rather than descending into petty factionalism? We’ve already ruled out coalition, after all…
This ‘silent hunter’ appears to be yet another one of those people who post the same thing to every thread, ignoring all the ones who point out why they are being silly. Sigh.
Silent Hunter — there will be strange results all over the place this time and much will depend on where people live. Where do you live?
It will stay the same old party system until the voting system is changed. The main reason people will not vote Lib Dem is because they see it as a wasted vote.
I would like to see 3 main parties formed,
1 a Labour party that is made up from their left wing,
2 a centre party of the Lab right wing, Tory left/Lib wing,and the Lib Dem party,
3 and UKIP and the Tory right wing.
The only way this will happen is if the voting system is changed.
Then again it is nice to dream.
2 a centre party of the Lab right wing, Tory left/Lib wing,and the Lib Dem party,
Ugh. I’ve far more in common with the Labour left than with the Blairs, Blears, James Purnells and Luke Akehursts of this world, and I suspect many LibDems think similarly. Likewise some of the libertarian wing of the Party would be just as horrified at that prospect.
Those were polls from local elections. It will be different in the General Election, when the pro or anti EU argument will surface. Personally, nowadays I would not dream of voting for the EU-fanatic pro-Euro Liberal Democrat party. Companies are bringing manufacturing back to this country because we – unlike poor Greece and Ireland – are able to adjust the value of our currency after all the losses the bankers have brought upon us.
You do not have to be right wing to wish to leave the EU, the CAP and the CFP. You just have to object to taxpayers being forced to pay £300,000 each year, every year, to Gerald Grosvenor and £500,000 each year, every year, to Charles and Camilla Windsor for the privilege of inheriting all that land free of any Inheritance Tax!
The thought of the LIbDems holding the balance of power in the next Parliament in any debate over the EU or joining the Euro makes my blood run cold! I will vote for any party other than the BNP or the EU-fanatic LibDems. The LIberal Party used to be a party of protest. The Liberal Democrats should be an internationalist Liberal party of protest against our membership of the EU. I hope it will fall to the Liberal Party to fulfil that role before too long, by becoming a clearly EU-withdrawalist internationalist Liberal Party instead of beating about the bush under its present leadership..
I am amused to see from Dane Clouston’s post that he thinks that the Liberal Party – evidently the Liberal Party to which he is a member (or has recently been a member), not the Liberal Democrat Party – is “beating about the bush [about its attitude to the EU] under its present leadership”. Does it not occur to him that if even his own party is not currently keen on EU withdrawal, it is he who is wrong about the EU and that the rest of the liberally minded portion of the electorate who want to stay in the EU are right ?
“Hugh P”,
All liberally minded electors do not want to stay in the EU, as the LibDems will find out in the next election.
Have a look at the LIberal Party website for the policy motion passed at the 2009 Annual Liberal Party Assembly. It effectively calls for withdrawal without actually saying so. “We believe that reform of the European Union is a necessary reqquirement of the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union”. That is what I call beating about the bush, thanks to the currently pro-EU leadership. I would like to see clarity and a clear, understandable call for withdrawal, on which to campaign as an EU-sceptic Liberal.
As you guessed, I do not at present belong to the Liberal Party. Nor do I belong to any other political party. I would find it very hard to support UKIP because they want to see grammar schools in every town and to abolish Inheritance Tax, amongst other things. It may now have to be Labour or perhaps the Greens – who seem to be less EU-fanatic and better on equality of opportunity than the LibDems – this time – given the Conservatives policy of reducing Inheritance Tax for the rich and given that they have gone back on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. As, of course, have the LibDems.
Some people can bring the EU into almost anything. The only people who will be talking about the EU in the next election will be UKIP and the right wing of the Conservative party. If Cameron gets a small majority the euro-sceptics will do for him like they did for Major.
Everyone else will be campaigning on the economy, the banks and a fairer society, just as Nick Clegg has said. Only the Liberal Democrats will bring fairness to our taxation system and to wider society.
The media will bang on about a hung parliment and Nick has got this right as well – leave the democratic process (such as it is) to work and let the party with the largest number of seats try to form a government. When questioned he should just add that commentators should not rule out that the party with the largest number of seats could just be the LibDems and let them chew on that!
Happy New Year to one and all!
“fdp100”
It is not normally difficult to bring the EU into a discussion of opinion polls. Although it is difficult to bring it into any discussion within the Liberal Democratic Party, in which EU-scepticism is a kind of heresy.
Many people who are not UKIP – or BNP – or on the right wing of the Conservative Party are deeply concerned about our membership of the EU, the CAP and CFP and the way the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty was pushed through without a referendum, with the support of the Liberal Democrats ( but not the Liberal Party) pretending in a slippery way that calling for an in or out referendum gets them off the hook of integrity.
The way to a fairer and more prosperous country is to rule ourselves from Westminster, not to be ruled by a highly “netto” paid bureaucracy in Brussels. I believe that this is an opinion widely shared. For example, I believe that it might soon be, if it is not already, contrary to European law to introduce a basic minimum British Universal Inheritance at the age of 25 for British-born UK citizens. No doubt we will hear more of EU-wide Bambini Bonds instead, ludicrously means tested – like Baby Bonds – according to whether parents just happen to be or not to be on income support at the time of birth.
Liberal Democrats in a hung Parliament would be a dangerous pro-EU and pro-joining the Euro influence. Thank goodness they had no influence against the decision to keep out of the Euro. I believe that they will do far less well than they expect as the election looms because of their identification with – and slavish support for – our membership of the EU. I certainly hope so.
Good joke about being the largest party!
Happy New Year, indeed!