Tag Archives: stephen fisher

Reasons to be careful about new analysis suggesting Lib Dems “set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict”

A new analysis by Oxford academic Stephen Fisher (a member of the team which was behind the scarily accurate BBC/ITN exit poll at the 2010 election) douses the comfort blanket to which many of us Lib Dems have been clinging, suggesting as it does that the Lib Dems are losing more votes in our strongest seats:

The most significant factor affecting party performance at the constituency level is prior Liberal Democrat strength. … the Liberal Democrats are clearly loosing most in the seats where they started strongest and losing least where they started weakest. Partly this is inevitable. There are over 100 seats where the Lib Dems got less than 16% of the vote in 2010 and so their vote share cannot fall by this much. Moreover it is unlikely that the party will fall exactly to zero even where it does very badly. So if the GB polls are right overall, the Liberal Democrats must be falling more where they started stronger, and the BES data suggest the drop is broadly proportional to their prior strength. This mirrors the pattern of change at the local authority level at the European Parliament elections this year, adding confidence that the effect is real. The implications for Liberal Democrat seats are straightforward. If they are indeed losing most heavily in the seats they are defending they are set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict.

Posted in Polls | Also tagged , , and | 81 Comments

Is Nick Harvey right that “Labour is on course to win the next election”?

Nick Harvey MPSir Nick Harvey, Lib Dem MP for North Devon (and former defence minister), has little doubt who’s going to win the next election, as he tells the Huffington Post:

… Harvey has a “clear sense” of what he thinks is going to happen. And even more than that, he is “astonished” that few others within the Westminster Village share his view.

“Stand fast a game changing event, which is always possible in the febrile political era in which we live, Labour is on course to win the next election,” he

Posted in News | Also tagged , and | 18 Comments
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  • User AvatarChris Rennard 17th Aug - 3:38pm
    I like it. I think that it is much better, for example, than ‘Open, Tolerant, United’ which was an ‘internal’ message and of no use...
  • User AvatarInnocent Bystander 17th Aug - 3:24pm
    " and expect anything real in return. You aren’t going to get it!" Apart, of course, from the very real houses, infrastructure, industry sectors, power...
  • User Avatarpaul barker 17th Aug - 3:22pm
    @Michael1 I look at all the Local Byelections where we stood either this time or last time, at when the last Election in the Seat...
  • User AvatarPeter Watson 17th Aug - 3:07pm
    @David Raw "this message will boomerang back referring to the Coalition years" To be fair, it's hard to imagine any slogan fixing that particular problem!...
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 17th Aug - 3:01pm
    Or a rallying cry for liberal Tories trying to regain their party... ...Things can only get wetter...!
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 17th Aug - 2:59pm
    I thought I did't like it at first, then read the article and reconsidered, then see too much against it here and wonder what the...