Tag Archives: Timothy Hallam Smith

What do the academics say? The incumbency effect for MPs

Academics in caps and gowns - Some rights reserved by herkieWelcome to the latest in our occasional series highlighting interesting findings from academic research. Today – the incumbency benefit sitting MPs can build up, based on an analysis of the 1983-2010 general elections:

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that

Posted in What do the academics say? | 4 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • Michael BG
    Paul Barker, Sorry I spelt your name incorrectly. Peter Martin The insurance concept is also kept for those receiving New Style Jobseekers Allowance (l...
  • David Allen
    "If we let the Greens win here it’s bad news for all our MPs..." The choice is between letting the Greens score a big (maybe winning) vote against a Lib De...
  • Rose Runswick
    @Pawel I agree totally, even if we lose a deposit there is much to be gained from a strong campaign in terms of local party teambuilding and fundraising from po...
  • Tony Vickers
    If we let the Greens win here it’s bad news for all our MPs who have slim majorities that largely depended on the tactical Green vote in 2024. We are disappea...
  • Hywel
    "This by-election, where we have absolutely nothing to lose, is a perfect opportunity to set out our stall as a political party and challenge voters to support ...