The Sun versus reality: how do they compare?

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The Sun versus reality: how do they compare?

By Mark Pack | Thu 3rd September 2009 - 8:23 am

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The Sun says: “Every August poll carried out before a spring election since 1996 has predicted the result to within one per cent.”

Reality says: MORI 24 August ~~2001~~ 2000 – Con 29% (out by 4%), Lab 51% (out by 9%), lead 22% (out by 9%)

Although this is the most striking example, overall for example eight out of the 12 August polls since 1996 had the Labour lead out by more than 1%. Similarly, only three got the Labour share to within 1%.

Not exactly a case of “every”.

UPDATE: Himmelgarten Cafe points out that the graphic accompanying the Sun story isn’t exactly a piece of accurate representation.

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6 Comments

Herbert Brown 3rd Sep '09 - 8:51am

“The Sun says: ”Every August poll carried out before a spring election since 1996 has predicted the result to within one per cent.”

Reality says: MORI 24 August 2001 …”

Eh? Surely it means an election the following spring?
George C 3rd Sep '09 - 9:43am

I suspect this is based on the Political Betting analysis of ICM polls in the August ahead of an election (see http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/26/could-cameron-win-a-victory-of-1997-proportions/). Looks like The Sun are being a bit slack with their facts (not for the first time).
Malcolm Todd 3rd Sep '09 - 10:09am

Presumably they only mean general elections, compared with the poll in the previous August. Which means a sample of precisely three elections. In other words, (surprise, surprise) utterly meaningless.
Alex Foster 3rd Sep '09 - 11:51am

HB – just got a panicked call from Mark asking me to update the post as he erroneously put 2001 where he meant 2000…
KL 3rd Sep '09 - 12:16pm

Sun – facts. Facts – Sun. Perhaps you might like to talk to one another one day?
Peter Laubach 3rd Sep '09 - 1:19pm

You can’t seriously have expected this rag to be accurate and unbiased?! Anything that will boost “Dave” ‘s chances between now and the GE is all they’re interested in!