Two big leaps forward for the Liberal Democrats in tonight’s by-elections

Lib Dem candidate Tracey Henry came within 32 votes of winning a safe Labour seat in Hull tonight.

That works out as:

Lab: 45.6% (-20.1)
Lib Dem: 43.9% (+30.7)
Con: 10.5% (-4.0)

So that’s up almost 31% since May.

That’s one hell of a leap forward, more than tripling the vote.

The other result involving Lib Dems tonight saw James Morshead surge in the Wainbody ward in Coventry.

The Lib Dems weren’t involved in tonight’s only other contest, in Rory Stewart’s parliamentary constituency.

The Conservatives gained the seat from an Independent.

* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

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9 Comments

  • Bill le Breton 6th Sep '19 - 8:52am

    Congratulations and huge thanks to these candidates and their teams.

    What Hull shows is just how frail the Labour vote is.

    The public knows it can’t trust Corbyn and his double-speak.

    We must be ready to change our stance on supporting a no confidence vote the instant the No Deal Bill gets Royal Assent.

    In fact we should table a NC motion under the FTPAct immediately Royal Assent is given. The FTPAct does not stop us doing so. It is just that Gov MUST immediately give time for the motion if it is tabled by the Leader of the Opposition.

  • Roger Billins 6th Sep '19 - 9:14am

    A general election before 31.10 would be a disaster for Remain. Johnson would win a large overall majority because of the divided opposition. After 31.10 it is the Leavers who will be split. I favour a vote of no confidence in the second half of October with either a Government of National Unity followed by Ref 2 or a General Election in November

  • @Bill – the Labour vote is very fragile and I can see scores of seats changing hands. Many to the Lib Dem’s but many to the Tories because Remain leaning parties split the vote.

    So whilst I’m pleased at one level I’m deeply concerned at another. The question for me is do we go for Labours jugular or fight more tactically?

  • Does anyone know why no candidate in Penrith? We have councillors in wards surrounding this one, so it’s nothing to do with local party weakness. We must have made a decision not to stand.

  • I support No Confidence vote if we are assured the 21 “ex” Conservative MPs and Minsters would support it or abstain. Not sure about that at all. What we do not want to do is give Johnson and his crowd any credence.

  • Quite suprised as well as delighted to see ex Stoke South MP Robert Flello until last election, has joined us. Things are happening, what with this and the Hull Docklands result last night.

  • Bill le Breton 6th Sep '19 - 1:30pm

    Tactics are very important.

    If Labour do not vote for a NC motion it won’t happen. If they do, it will because they have chosen to table one. So the odds on an October election are small.

    Putting the marker down that I suggest allows us even more forcibly to imply that Labour can’t be trusted on ‘Brexit’. Which they can’t.

    These local elections are just the latest evidence that we are going to win seats from Labour – because a) a proportion of Labour voters will choose us as the most reliable anti-Brexit Party and b) because 40% of their vote in many seats will go to The Brexit Party.

    Added to these gains are the gains that we are going to make from the Tories because Remain Tories will vote for us in larger and larger numbers as Johnson’s incompetence is confirmed.

    At the minimum we are going to win 150 seats net.

    I for one don’t want us to end up as the smaller of two Parties in a Coalition if the difference between our number of seats is 30 or 40 short of a larger Party.

    Leading up to polling day we need a) to convince everyone of our chances and b) that to avoid a Labour or Tory led Government they need to vote Lib Dem – wherever they vote. Jo has as much chance of being PM as Corbyn and Johnson have.

    It is going to be that close.

  • Paul Barker 6th Sep '19 - 5:08pm

    In the National Polls we seem to be steady on 18 or 19%.
    In Local Elections we seem to be steady around 27%, the difference being down to the lack of National Media influence on Local contests.
    Its very unlikely that The General Election can happen before December in any case but from our point of view, the later the better. Realignement is happening but so far its very slow, we need time.

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