Every Thursday night now there’s a bit of a weight of expectation now. We are winning so many by-elections that you just will the trend to continue and wonder if it can.
Tonight it did in pretty spectacular style. The night started sedately enough with Alaric Rose holding Exeter ward in Kidlington.
Then the big news from Blackdown in Somerset – in the heart of Taunton Deane, a seat won by the Conservatives in the General Election from us.
Blackdown (Taunton Deane) result:
LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)
CON: 22.5% (-30.4)
IND: 6.3% (+6.3)
Other Ind and Grn didn’t stand this time round.— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 15, 2016
That is not a typo. That is a 49% increase in the vote.
But then the Blackdown Thunder was stolen with an even more remarkable result from Richard Keeling and team in the Chudleigh ward of Teinbridge District Council.
Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
Ind(s) and Grn didn’t stand this time.— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 16, 2016
It’s remarkable because just 18 months ago, we were scraping along the bottom in last place. What a turnaround.
These sorts of swings will be leaving our winning teams with butterflies in their tummies. Incredible stuff.
We also gained a seat on Brickhill Parish Council for Antonie Koch.
And in a seat won by an Independent from the Conservatives in St Edmundsbury, we got 10.4% from a standing start.
Yes, but that’s all well and good, I hear you say. The Lib Dem national poll rating is stubbornly refusing to move upwards despite all these very good by-election wins.
Ah, but look at this. we’ve seen our poll ratings rise by a whole 4% to 14%, which is our highest rating in more than five years.
It looks like our anti-brexit stance is gaining a lot of support. The Richmond by-election seems to have reminded people that we are still here.
Now we just have to keep this up in the New Year.
UPDATE: And the gains kept coming. In Bovey ward, also in Teignbridge, Sally Morgan saw a 20% increase in the Lib Dem vote as she took the seat from the Tories.
Bovey (Teignbridge) result:
LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
IND: 3.6% (+3.6)— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 16, 2016
Winning by-elections is fantastic, but now is the time to make sure that we have all the plans in place to stand candidates and get as many votes as we can in the local elections in England, Scotland and Wales in May. Those nice people at ALDC have all the information you need to continue the #libdemfightback in your area.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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34 Comments
Three gains!
Some good results but where do soft-brexiters go? Do we go Lib Dem, with the party still wanting remain, or do we go to the Tories and risk a hard brexit?
Soft-brexiters, currently homeless. Labour brexit is a strange brexit and nobody trusts it so the vision for the country is going down to the Tories and the Lib Dems.
@Eddie
If the overriding aim of “soft Brexiters” is to prevent a hard departure from the EU, the Lib Dem policy – of the public making the final decision once the Brexit deal is known – is an overwhelming reason for soft-Brexiters to go with the Lib Dems, rather than the Tories.
People being more willing to vote for us in elections than in opinion polls is a familiar pattern. Wonder how many people thought the EU Referendum was an opinion poll….
And were they the people who understood what they were doing…?
Bovey ward at Teignmouth the same pattern, up 20.3% and victory.
I am very wary of anything described as “sensational” – I must have heard Tony Blackburn use it way too often on Radio 1 when introducing pop songs that turned out to be deeply humdrum – but this is a good night. Well done all!
Special commendations to the Bovey and the Chudleigh teams. These wards are adjacent to each other. A targeting strategy nightmare in some years. We went for both and look at the result.
‘Soft’ Brexiters will just have to make up their minds!
If they go towards the Conservatives, they would be reasonably sure to find at least one of the various positions on Brexit that might appeal. The problem, though is all the others. On the other hand they could lean to Labour, if they could understand Labour’s position; whatever it is it does not seem to be a ‘hard’ Brexit.
Of course Liberal Democrats do not want a Brexit, but as Nick Clegg said in an interview if there is to be a Brexit, we should negotiate to be fully in the Single Market, cooperate fully on security and environmental matters as well as contribute towards development in poorer countries. Which prompted the response of the interviewer “then what would be the point in leaving?” (really some interviewers are remarkably slow!)
Spencer Hagard – ‘the Lib Dem policy – of the public making the final decision once the Brexit deal is known – is an overwhelming reason for soft-Brexiters to go with the Lib Dems, rather than the Tories.’
Hard to say. On leaving the EU (‘Brexit’ is a horrible neologism and we should ban it!) I’m not really clear in my own head what the Lib Dem position is. It seems that that what Tim Farron wants is a de facto rerun of the referendum. Whilst that might have some level of appeal for those with a strong view on remaining I’m not sure it addresses anything.
All of the problems that REMAIN had are still there. Much of the political construct that went down badly (and not just in the UK) is in place. What I really wanted to hear from REMAIN in the referendum was, ‘if we remain in the EU the things that we would do differently in future are…..’ I didn’t get the end of that sentence in the campaign and I’ve not really seen anyone have a go since. By all means criticise the government for their lack of a clear picture – just I’m not really sure anyone else has painted one for me.
I don’t think anyone mainstream has actually said that the EU is all one big rose garden and there aren’t any problems? I had not understood that the LDP position is a hard remain with the Euro, Schengen, refugee quotas and so on. Is it?
I would also add that I’m not totally keen on another referendum because I’d worry that it would just open the door to referendum 3, 4, 5 and so on. Let’s at least be honest and say that the LDP would have given short-shrift to calls for another referendum if the result had been the other way. Indeed the repeat-referendums we’ve seen in other countries are not a great advert for the EU.
So whilst the idea of a referendum on the leave deal is an interesting position I’m not sure that it actually addresses any of the bigger questions that would be tested in elections held on a scale bigger than a by-election. What does the LDP want to see in this leave deal?
I know what I’d like to have seen the UK do differently within the EU – it would be nice to hear other views. From any party.
The extent to which the LibDems are a total safe-haven for out-and-out ‘soft Brexiters’ may for some depend on the questions on the proposed second referendum.
if it is a 2- or 3- question referendum where an explicit soft-brexit option appears on the ballot as an alternative to the ‘deal’, then, yes, clearly.
If it is a 2 question referendum with the government’s deal being contrasted to remaining, then less so.
However, it is completely plausible to argue that keeping up pressure to consider a second referendum or reminding people of the consequences of a hard Brexit and the possibility of remaining, is more likely to result in an ultimate political compromise around a soft-Brexit.
The LibDem position is not totally centred around the second referendum; it is to push for a second referendum but to ensure a soft-Brexit if that is not achievable.
But anyway, these were council elections – I’m sure Brexit (whilst it is clearly a factor in the popular mind and imagining of our party) was not the overall deciding issue.
These results are fantastic and show we are coming back in our previous West Country strongholds even in areas which predominantly voted Leave in June’s referendum.
However we have to begin to think about what our response as a party should be in circumstances where the Government returns from Article 50 negotiations without a deal and, more than that, that such negotiations end in acrimony with Britain being forced out of the EU, Single Market and Customs Union where significant trade barriers will be imposed.
Be in no doubt what the consequences will be. It will mean higher unemployment as a result of firms relocating into what will then be the EU of 27 member states due to the higher costs of doing business in Britain. It will also mean higher inflation as a result of the pound weakening further due to increased uncertainty because of the inability to secure a suitable post-Brexit deal thus feeding into increased prices of raw materials which will then be passed onto consumers in the shops. Together this will lead to a fall in living standards the likes we have not seen for many many years even decades.
When such consequences become clear to the electorate the anger against this Conservative government will be palpable and they will be looking to a party that has answers to the economic malaise that is before them. Are we ready to be that party that provides such answers? If the answer is yes, in my view the sky’s the limit when it comes to our electoral prospects at the next General Election.
The question is do we know what the answers should be in such circumstances.
We have a winning formula: Anti-Brexit and a clear set of values– open, tolerant and unified. All we need to do is stick to the plan and continue forging ahead.
This is amazing! I always read the analysis of by elections from Mark Pack if I can, and although I knew we were fighting hard in Blackdown and might win, although I think we’d not held this particular seat before, it seemed to me that the others were going to be very difficult for us. It’s so wonderful to be wrong!
Without taking away anything from these wins, believing your own propaganda is never sensible. In Teignbridge, Bovey, last time the seat was fought the highest paced Lib Dem got 1434 votes, yesterday the same candidate got 838. In Chudleigh, yesterday we got 680 votes, (508 last time) the Independents and Greens who didn’t stand this time took almost 2700 votes last time (in a two member ward with both seats up)
I am as delighted as anyone to be on 14% in a single opinion poll, our highest rating by this pollster for 5 years ! but it does show how far we fell.
Without looking at changes in turnout, the strength of local parties, the local issues and all the other factors that influence the result, making assertions about
what the vote means is foolish and something that belongs to the Clegg era, where political nous was a thought crime.
@ Tom Arms “We have a winning formula: Anti-Brexit and a clear set of values– open, tolerant and unified. All we need to do is stick to the plan and continue forging ahead”.
And a few radical policies would help.
We need to be able to convince people that we are the party of Britain.It’s well being , it’s people , it’s residents , it’s society , it’s economy.
We need to show that the Tries and UKIP are the parties of Brexit.
We need to show Sir Keir and co we speak to and for anyone who engages with us and we them . Not the remainers or so called remoaners . The sensible people who want our country to remain sensible !
P.S. Tories not tries !
Lib Dems are doing good. Clearly defined as the party of remain/anti-brexit.
I would suggest to broaden your appeal is to move onto polices on the really big agenda’s. I was thinking about this and beyond “its the economy stupid” actually I think it is more “health, wealth and offspring”. I think this is why the NHS, Economy and school are such political footballs.
My recommendation would be ( I’m a floating voter),
1) NHS i going to be removed for politics with a board of stakeholders and experts that are a-political and will run and make recommendations on reforms the NHS requires. Remove the whole thing from politics tug-of-war.
2) Economy: go with the Ed balls/Edd milliband version (just give it another name), the seems inline with Lin dem economic areas and would be broadly popular. Even Theresea May is heading that way.
3) Education : go with free schools and opposition to grammars. This strikes me as a reasonable balance on lib dem ideology and what would be practical. Don’t make any mention of tuition fees!
Brexit and UK place in the world will dominate everything. But a broad appealing manifesto will help. Don’t promise what can’t practically be delivered.
This is a very impressive performance & suggests that we are well into the first stage of our recovery, getting back our place as the 3rd Party in England. Obviously we face a much tougher climb in Wales & Scotland.
Its also worth noting that in every seat where we stood the Labour vote fell.
Several issues here!
Caracatus
Of course the votes were higher last time they were fought, because it coincided with a GE with GE turnout levels. Sally Morgan in Bovey is a candidate with form, having been a senior Devon County Councillor, and a District Councillor, and a PPC, so pretty well known locally. And Theakes, Bovey may be in Teignbridge DC, but most certainly not in Teignmouth. Sue Sutherland, I think Chudleigh was likely to be a hardish nut to crack, but the candidate was Mayor of Chudleigh (as an Independent) so clearly well known. Bovey, because of the candidate and her history should have been a predictable win in current “comeback” conditions.
Theresa May’s worst night for local by-elections since she became Prime Minister.
3 Lib Dem gains from Conservative, all with +20% swings, all of them in areas that voted Leave. A total of 4 losses, with the Conservative winning nothing on the night.
It means the Tories have clearly lost more Councillors than Labour, as opposed to when I last wrote on this site about the subject:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-surge-as-corbyns-labour-falters-behind-tories-52577.html
However, the Labour vote seems to be in free fall. Whilst the Tories last all 4 seats they were defending last night, none were to the Labour Party (the fourth seat went to an independent).
All of this makes this year the best year for Liberal Democrat local by-election gains since ALDC started keeping detailed records in the 1990s.
Or, as we put it in Southampton:
https://southampton-libdems.org.uk/en/article/2016/1195084/tory-wipeout-as-lib-dems-surge-in-leave-areas
Supporters of all parties are increasingly splitting their votes, supporting one party for Parliament and another in local elections, but these results are interesting because we’re doing very well in West Country seats, but also in areas which voted for Brexit. In the case of the Devon seat the picture is particularly interesting because the elections were in Teignbridge district wards which are in Central Devon constituency where we were fourth last time above – Conservative 28,436 52.2%, UKIP 7,171 13.2%, Labour 6,985 12.8%, Liberal Democrat 6,643 12.2%, Green 4,866 8.9%. In the Taunton Deane by-election there was no Green candidates this time and no Labour candidate this time or in 2015, but the Liberal Democrat vote, at 71.2% was pretty convincing. Remember that this is in a pro-Brexit parliamentary seat where the Tories have a majority of 15,491.
As for these wins, remember how we win seats locally and stop obsessing about Brexit.
Sorry to be a pedant, but the percentages in the Bovey vote don’t add up:
LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
IND: 3.6% (+3.6)
Three parties saw an increase in their vote share (+29% total)
Three parties saw an decrease in their vote share (-14% total)
So were there other parties who stood last time that didn’t stand in the by-election?
I think you may be right, Steve. The ward is a three member ward and by my calculation, the result in 2015 was:
Conservative (3 candidates) 6200 50.3%
Green (1) 966 7.8%
Independent (1) 626 5.1%
Labour (2) 1372 11.1%
Liberal Democrats (3) 3157 25.6%
The votes were:
GATES, Danny Joseph Green Party 966
GRIBBLE, George John commonly known as GRIBBLE, George Conservative Party 2264 Elected
KELLY, Eoghan Eamon Independent 626
KERSWELL, Avril Joan Conservative Party Candidate 2026 Elected
KLINKENBERG, Anna Mary Conservative Party Candidate 1910 Elected
MORGAN, Sally Angela Liberal Democrats 1434
PAGE, Philip Anthony commonly known as PAGE, Phil Liberal Democrats 1074
ROBILLARD WEBB, Lisa Collette Labour Party 775
ROYAL, Philip Norman commonly known as ROYAL, Phil Labour Party 597
VAN GOOR DEN OOSTERLINGH, Paul Alexander commonly known as VAN GOOR, Paul
Liberal Democrats 649
@Tim13 – wasn’t I clear, differential turnout and change of parties contesting the seat is a better explanation than Brexit. and in Taunton Deane it appears the Tory resigned due to pressure of time to be a councillor, often a euphemism for not doing the work and the replacement Tory candidate lived in Taunton, whereas Blackdown is an AONB and definitely not part of Taunton. A small electorate, local candidate, low turnout, Tories stay home safe in the knowledge the result won’t change who runs the council = by-election win, not lib dem surge. On the same night in a seat in Wales our vote dropped 20%.
For once FPRP can work for us. As labour, ukip and the Tories split the 52% of leave voters between them we pick up the 48% of remain voters…. We are also popular in places like the South West which voted leave anyway so if you weight it all up this looks good for us.
Personally I’d like to see the Lib Dems have a real crack at London buying up some poster space in a few prominent areas reminding people we are the party of remain at the right time could see most of London go Lib Dem. That would send shockwaves through the Tory party if that happened.
You may be right Caractus, but I don’t see this in negative terms as you do. This looks to me as if we are getting our Community Politics ‘mojo’ back again, selecting credible candidates (who WILL do the work) and campaigning with local communities on the issues that matter to them.
It was this approach that stopped us ceasing to exist post Liberal/SDP merger, and built the foundations for our survival in 1992, the breakthrough in the by-election of that Parliament, and the gain in Parliamentary seats in 1997. After 1997 the party centrally made the mistake of being too obsessed with Westminster Politics and our local government base in many parts of the country was hollowed out.
When I met Shaun Roberts a few years ago he was very aware of how important a local campaigning base was for the party in the long term, so now he is Camapign head I have some grounds for optimism that we won’t make the same mistakes again.
The LibDem surge is happening too often to be down to local factors. Labour is in disarray, UKIP is fading and the Tories are less popular than the opinion polls would suggest. If this continues till May I’d expect the party to make substantial gains. The risk’s are Labour get their act together or UKIP manage to become a functioning party, as for the Tories, well governing parties tend to get a kicking and I’d expect them to receive one.
The Blackdowns seat win in Taunton Deane is a bit along the lines that Caracatus says – but it does not deny the widespread disillusionment there is with the Tories performance locally, regionally and nationally. True too that the Tories stayed at home in droves and in a national campaign would probably return to form. Ross Henley is well known already representing the patch at County level which was a contributory factor too. Still a 35% turnout in a rural ward where it rained for most of the day and where the postal ballots were only 33% of those cast is indicative of the malaise which we exploited cleverly.
It helped that during the campaign we won Richmond Park – but we were astute enough not to push the Remain aspect but simply the fact that we are again emerging as a party which is alive and kicking
But great team work and unstinting work done by all
The Bovey ward has not really been worked since I lost my County seat in 2009 and then my the District seat (just won back) in 2011.
Since that time I’ve been the agent and unofficial organiser here in Teignbridge as well as being the treasurer, campaign manager and also artworking and printing most of the literature.
We made strategic decisions as a local team that, because of our drop in the polls due to the coalition and the loss of many council seats and activists, we would really concentrate on our held and most winnable areas in both 2013 and 2015. We actually made net gains, although small, in both elections. In 2015 I was the parliamentary and district election agent for Newton Abbot constituency and for Teignbridge district, I also produced all of the literature. We put one leaflet out in Bovey, choosing instead to campaign in our held areas and where our data was good. I came fourth, 400 votes behind the three tories. Maybe I would have done better if I had actually campaigned but it was a big maybe. We worked these two by-elections hard and stuck to the ALDC plan like glue. The feel of these elections was so very different to that of a year ago and even as recently as the referendum in June. It was as if a lot of anger had been diffused, people were looking for something positive and the reception on the doorstep and out and about was so much more pleasant than it has been for a very long time. Interestingly there were no spoiled ballot papers – not one. Usually there are the venal scrawlings of angry and disgruntled people venting their spleen, but not this time. I do think things are changing.
We are winning again because Clegg has gone and the public are latching on to the idea we have a new leader. As Sally Morgan says, we are at last getting a hearing again. Still we have the people who denied Clegg was toxic trying to bring him back on the issue of the day, much live a cult still trying to fulfil their prophecies that ‘if they don’t love Nick, they will come to respect him ‘. No they won’t. Clegg should have resigned after tuition fees as a signal the the party ‘got it’ that he had badly let people down.
I am not being negative, I am being realistic as oppose to the hyperbole and naivism apparent in the article and some of the comments.