Since May 2016, the Liberal Democrats have been the clear winners when it comes to taking seats in local by-elections.  Many campaigners will have seen the following graph:

With 21 seats gained, and only 1 lost, the net result of +20, with our vote share averaging up 9% is a good recovery which the party should be proud of.   We need to continue to work hard, but at the same time, steady progress.

Conventional thinking would have us believe that when a party is in Government, they do badly in elections.  Conversely, opposition parties should be doing well.  Therefore, if Labour were to be on a serious road to power, it should be thrashing the Conservatives by achieving net gains from them.

Yet if 2016 has taught us anything about politics, it’s that convention has gone out of the window.  Digging deeper into local authority by-election figures, I was shocked to learn that the reverse is true – the Tories are gaining seats off Labour.  Since 2016, Labour have won 3 seats off the Tories.  This figure should be a lot higher for the Official Opposition.  Surprisingly though, the Conservatives have won 7 net seats off Labour, including a result in Pendle last Thursday:

Reedley (Pendle) result:
CON: 51.1% (+8.4)
LAB: 46.6% (-7.6)
LDEM: 2.3% (+2.3)

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 24, 2016

This figure now means that Labour are still losing seats, but as of Thursday 24th November they have lost more Councillors net (-11) compared to the Conservatives (-7).  For every seat Labour gain off the Tories, they lose two.

There are clear signs that this is a trend, because Labour are losing net Councillors not only to the Lib Dems (-5), and the Conservatives (-4), but other parties as well. Whilst Scottish Labour are trading seats with the SNP (2 net gains and losses means it’s even here) they’ve also lost seats to Plaid.

Labour are even -1 seat down to UKIP.  Yes, leaderless, MEP-punching, leadership-contender-resigning, expenditure-investigated, xenophobic UKIP are taking seats off Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

Worse may be yet to come.  The Liberal Democrats saw a strong surge in Witney, where they were clearly competitive, resulting in some fabulous body language from different candidates on the night:

The excellent Liz Leffman slashed the Tory majority down to around 6,000 votes, leapfrogging both UKIP – and also Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.  At the time of writing, the latest polling sees a Lib Dem surge in Richmond Park, with Zac Goldsmith falling down to 46.7% and the Lib Dem Sarah Olney surging to 43.3%.  With polling day next 1st December, the Lib Dems may capture the seat with a late surge.  Labour, a distant third, are out of the running.

What of Corbyn’s Labour then?  With the late Jo Cox’s seat respectfully not being contested by the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and others, comparisons are impossible here.  However, the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election provides Labour with an opportunity, where Labour came a distant second in 2015. Yet early signs are that Labour are struggling to make an impact.

Despite Jeremy Corbyn visiting the constituency, Ladbrokes lists Labour’s chances of winning at 100/1.  Again, a serious Official Opposition would be competitive in this seat.  Instead, Labour, having selected a Brexit candidate for this by-election, are splitting the anti-EU vote with UKIP and the Conservatives.  Meanwhile, many commentators have noticed the 40% Remain vote is rapidly concentrating around the Lib Dem’s Ross Pepper who has emerged as the serious pro-Remain challenger.

Unlike opinion polls, both Parliamentary and local authority by-elections are real.  They represent collectively, not hundreds, not thousands, but tens of thousands of votes cast in real elections, with local by-elections being held all over the country since May 2016.  The continued trend of losing local council seats is something that the Labour Party, as the Official Opposition, cannot afford to ignore.

* Simon Foster is a lecturer in Politics and Economics, and has published twenty-five books on Politics, PSHE and Citizenship.