Tag Archives: Polls

Encouraging poll news for the Liberal Democrats

The first Scottish opinion polls since the General Election was announced have been published and there’s mixed news for the Liberal Democrats.

Panelbase has us on just 5% (but that’s still up since January) and Survation has us up 1 from the 2015 election at 9%. If we go up at the rate that we have done in every election other than 2015, we could be on for a fair few gains up here. Edinburgh West and North East Fife, both gained from the SNP at Holyrood last year are the top targets but seats like Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Charles Kennedy’s old seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber are definitely in play. Winning back those highland heartlands from the SNP would be a marvellous thing and it is eminently doable.

On a UK level, we’ve gone up 4 points to 12% in a YouGov poll.

And there has been another important development:

UKIP are on the way down, and they certainly don’t seem to have learned any lessons about candidate approval, if one of their Glasgow council candidates is anything to go by. It’s quite something when being in favour of the guillotine and flogging are the mildest of your bizarre views. From the Herald:

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THREE sensational by-election GAINS and a 4% poll bounce! Not a bad Thursday night!

Every Thursday night now there’s a bit of a  weight of expectation now. We are winning so many by-elections that you just will the trend to continue and wonder if it can.

Tonight it did in pretty spectacular style. The night started sedately enough with Alaric Rose holding Exeter ward in Kidlington.

Then the big news from Blackdown in Somerset – in the heart of Taunton Deane, a seat won by the Conservatives in the General Election from us.

That is not a typo. That is a 49% increase in the vote.

But then the Blackdown Thunder was stolen with an even more remarkable result from Richard Keeling and team in the Chudleigh ward of Teinbridge District Council.

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Ashcroft poll in Hallam: Clegg within a whisker of Labour with a lot of Tory vote to squeeze

Lord Ashcroft has released a last minute poll on Nick Clegg’s seat of Sheffield Hallam. It’s the third he has conducted in the last 5 months. It comes with all the usual caveats on Ashcroft polls – he doesn’t mention the candidates’ names, and he has some weird methodology that he doesn’t explain to us about how he gets his final figures.

The results last month showed Labour two points ahead on 36% with Nick on 34%. The new poll shows Labour just one point ahead on 37% and Nick on 36%. The Tories are on 15%, UKIP on 7% …

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Champagne corks popping at party HQ?

Champagne cork popping photo by Brent SchneemanTim Farron was on Radio Four’s Today yesterday morning. He was talking about Norman Baker’s resignation. In passing, when interviewer John Humphrys mentioned the party potentially losing lots of MPs at the next election, Tim mentioned that the Lib Dems went up by three percentage points in this week’s Lord Ashcroft poll.

When Humphrys said he would mention that this was just one optimistic poll for the party amidst many pessimistic polls, Tim joked that “at party HQ they might not hear you above the sound of champagne corks popping”.

Posted in Polls | Also tagged and | 15 Comments

Voters give Liberal Democrats credit for tax threshold rise according to IPSOS-MORI poll

We all heard David Cameron and George Osborne take credit as often as they can for the raising of the tax threshold during this Parliament but a poll from IPSOS-MORI with fieldwork done after our Conference shows that the public just aren’t buying the Tory claims. 41% give the Liberal Democrats the credit for the policy compared to just 26% for the Conservatives as this graphic shows.

ISPOS-MORI tax threshold poll

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Cool politicians poll showcases the paucity of political debate

I thought we’d scraped the bottom of the barrel when these photos of poor Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich led to him being mocked in virtually every publication in the UK. But it gets worse. The other day I sighed when I saw the headline “Ed Miliband is less cool than Sir Menzies Campbell”. Apparently YouGov has been spending time and money asking people how cool a group of current and former party leaders are.

Unsurprisingly, nobody makes it out of the negatives:

You Gov Cool poll

 

It’s certainly true than …

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 7 Comments

Mrs Thatcher’s impact: how the public sees it now, how LDV readers saw it in 2008

The Guardian is the first off the blocks with an ICM poll asking the public’s retrospective verdict on Margaret Thatcher’s record in office. Here’s the topline figure of whether her 11-year premiership had been good or bad for Britain:

guardian icm thatcher

The paper also asked about specific policies, finding:

The sale of council homes and tackling of trade union power remain popular today, but people are less supportive of the fights she picked with Europe and tax cuts for the rich. Privatisation of the utilities and the poll tax remain deeply unpopular.

You can …

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  • User AvatarAndrew McCaig 18th Oct - 11:51am
    As for standing paper candidates: evidently opinions differ on this. Policy is to stand, and I don't think complaining about multiple times it is very...
  • User Avatarexpats 18th Oct - 11:50am
    Laurence Cox 18th Oct '17 - 11:[email protected] how many voters do you think pay as close attention to local council by-election results as you do....
  • User AvatarAndrew McCaig 18th Oct - 11:43am
    Katharine, I think to be honest the mistake we will not be making again is spending several £k (kindly donated by local members) on leaflets...
  • User AvatarGeorge Kendall 18th Oct - 11:38am
    @David Becket Completely right on both counts.
  • User AvatarDavid Becket 18th Oct - 11:16am
    When Universal Credit was first proposed it looked a good idea, making the system simpler. Since 2015 it has gone badly wrong thanks to the...
  • User AvatarLaurence Cox 18th Oct - 11:15am
    @expats And how many voters do you think pay as close attention to local council by-election results as you do. I'll give you a clue,...