Pollwatch – State of the Parties: Lib Dems 19%, Labour 33%, Tories 40% (June 2010)

A total of 10 voting intention polls during June – some of which, but not all, earned a mention on Lib Dem Voice so let’s bring the story up-to-date …

Here are June’s polls in chronological order of publication:

    * Con 36, Lab 30, Lib Dem 25 (1-9 June, Harris)
    * Con 40, Lab 32, Lib Dem 18 (10-11 June, YouGov)
    * Con 36, Lab 30, Lib Dem 23 (16-17 June, ComRes)
    * Con 39, Lab 31, Lib Dem 19 (18-20 June, Mori)
    * Con 39, Lab 31, Lib Dem 21 (18-20 June, ICM)
    * Con 39, Lab 34, Lib Dem 19 (17-18 June, YouGov)
    * Con 41, Lab 33, Lib Dem 18 (20-21 June, YouGov)
    * Con 42, Lab 34, Lib Dem 17 (22-23 June, YouGov)
    * Con 41, Lab 35, Lib Dem 16 (23-24 June, ICM)
    * Con 43, Lab 36, Lib Dem 16 (24-25 June, YouGov)
    * Con 40, Lab 31, Lib Dem 18 (29 June, ComRes)

All of which produces an average rating for the parties in June as follows (compared with May’s general election result):

    Tories 40% (+3%), Labour 33% (+3%), Lib Dems 19% (-4%)

Of course polls at this stage of the Parliament are meaningless. The Coalition Government is barely six weeks old, and Labour is without a permanent leader. But, regardless, the polls will be closely scrutinised by politicians, the media and supporters alike to try and discern how voters are reacting to the ‘new politics’. So let’s take a look at the figures from each of the main parties’ perspectives …

Tories … Will be very pleased at how their ratings are not only holding up, but are in fact increasing since George Osborne’s austerity budget – moving from the high-30%s to the low-40%s. At least for the moment voters blame Labour for the dire state of the country’s finances, rather than the governing parties; and the measures being taken to get the deficit under control are being seen in that light. There will be more than a flicker of a smile on Tory faces with the current polls.

Labour …
For Kabour, too, there is comfort from these figures. Often after defeats opposition parties ratings dip, but in fact Labour is polling above its general election result – though at an average 33% this is still an historically low figure for the party. The immediate reaction to the budget appears to have hardened Labour’s support, even as the Tories also ticked up – suggesting the Lib Dems are suffering somethng of a two-party squeeze at the moment.

Lib Dems …
Though there will be little surprise among the party faithful that support has dipped in the wake of such a stringent budget, the potential warning it flags up will cause some jitters: that the Tories will gain the principal benefit of Coalition Government measures of which the public approves, while the Lib Dems will merely antagonise our potential supporters every time the Government in some way disappoints. The immediate drop to 16-18% suggests a reaction against the budget among those who might vote Lib Dem (though it may also reflect a hardening of Tory/Labour supporters’ intentions). Whether this is a short-lived budget response, or part of a pattern we’ll see lasting into the summer only the next few weeks’ polls will show.

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14 Comments

  • David Morton 3rd Jul '10 - 5:27pm

    This thread has 11 published polls in June featured but the respected UK Polling Report has 17 published ones listed. This isn’t nit picking in the sense the ones Stephen seems to have missed are the more upto date post budget You Govs which have picked up a steeper Lib Dem slide.

  • We should be having a honeymoon period – having at last proved that a Liberal vote is not a wasted vote.

    Unfortunately instead of using our power to ‘get everyone round the table together’ as Nick said in the 3rd Leader’s debate, we have come across as spineless and unprincipled as our opponents. Our good reputation for honesty and being straight is being squandered in a temporary and grubby lust for power.

    We should have been ahead of a defeated, leaderless Labour now and enjoying a honeymoon period as we used our power in a fair and balanced way. Instead we have sold ourselves cheaply and dishonourably.

  • IMO still another 7% still to fall – but at least some Lib Dem influence in Govt. trying to protect those most needy – but they still wont vote for us next time …….ungrateful lot!!! I hope I’m wrong.
    History has shown us when we get into bed with another party its the smaller one that gets sha**ed by the larger one.

  • Paul McKeown 3rd Jul '10 - 8:16pm

    Worryingly for Red Rag the local election results since the GE have been very satisfactory for the LDs….

  • paul barker 3rd Jul '10 - 9:16pm

    A number of points –
    1st, its silly to compare polls with actual votes, polls vary much more. They tell us something but its not always clear what.
    2nd, all the polling organisations have adjusted the LDs down, on the grounds that their pre-election polls overestimated our support but Yougov have made the biggest change. My feeling is theyve gone too far & are underestimating us now,
    3rd, Yougov have produced 8 of the last 10 polls & combined with the above; are skewing the average. It might make more sense to have 2 averages, 1 for YG & another for the rest.

  • Re: June 29. Com Res poll shows:
    LD down 5%
    Tories up 4%
    Labour up 1%
    Rest: unchanged.

    So on that poll at least, it wasn’t Lib Dem voters deserting in droves to Labour after the budget.

    But with the right AND left giving us a good kicking in the national media, the BBC seeming to forget we exist at all, and very few people able to get their heads round the concept of what a coalition is/means, the polls aren’t that surprising.

  • Grammar Police 3rd Jul '10 - 10:55pm

    @ Paul Barker, I agree – and there are still more YouGov polls on the UK polling report site . . .

  • If you think 15% is a low polling percentage wait until the cuts actually happen.
    As for high percentages, Danny Alexander is looking for 40% Cuts.

  • Ray Cobbett 4th Jul '10 - 8:26am

    The trend is undeniably downwards and heading for new lows. And this at a time when Labour is leaderless.
    Still, we can console ourselves that it’s a sacrifice worth making for the good of the country, er can’t we?

  • Grammar Police 4th Jul '10 - 9:24am

    Actually Ray, yes I can. Granted I’d rather it wasn’t the case that our polls had gone down slightly, but we’re all (apparently) in politics to make a difference, and so presumably we should put doing right above being popular?

    Truth is, the YouGov polls are skewing the average – and they consistently show us lower than other polling companies.

  • >If you think 15% is a low polling percentage wait until the cuts actually happen.

    So how come these polls show Tory support UP since the budget (at our expense)?
    Let’s wait till the cuts happen before predicting anything based on a few early polls.

    Lot of talk before the election that whoever won would become ‘unelectable for a generation’ because of the cuts they’d have to enforce. Everyone knew being in government post-May 2010 wasn’t for those who care about being Mr/Mrs Popular.

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