Tag Archives: mori

Bob Worcester forecasts Lib Dems to be reduced to 24 seats in 2015. I’ll run naked down Whitehall if that’s the result.

At a conference fringe meeting on Monday evening, the pollster’s pollster Bob Worcester, MORI’s founder, made a forecast of how many seats the Lib Dems will win at the 2015 election: 24.

His prediction was based on current polling which he’d fed into the Electoral Calculus website and implied the number should be 17. His slightly higher punt allows for known Lib Dem strengths, such as our MPs’ habit of holding on tight in seats we win through sheer Stakhonovite grit.

Forecasting the next election is a bit of a mug’s game, as the Coalition means there’s no past precedent to …

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LibLink: Mark Pack – The Graph May Be Boring; The Political Message Isn’t

Over at the Huffington Post, the Voice’s Mark Pack has a post examining some interesting – and surprising – polling data, complete with a graph (don’t say Mark doesn’t spoil you).

Here’s Mark explaining what the graph shows:

It comes from polling carried out by MORI, asking the same question over the years: “How interested would you say you are in politics?” The graph shows how many people gave one of the two positive answers (“very” or “fairly”) – and so also shows how the public’s interest in politics has been pretty consistent, at a high level. (You can get the

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Who likes which party? What MORI’s data reveals

The pollsters MORI have recently re-released some of their polling data from January and the question of whether or not people like a party paints a very different picture from the usual voting intention figures.

Overall it shows the Conservatives the least liked party, Labour (despite its voting intention poll ratings at the moment) only marginally in the positive and the Liberal Democrats in the negatives, but with still a very healthy chunk of the population liking the party.

For the Conservatives and Labour these figures reinforce comments often made about them – that the detoxification of the Conservative brand never …

Posted in Polls | 15 Comments

Economic statistic of the week: do you know how well off you are compared to others?

The higher your personal income, the more likely you are to under-estimate how well off you are compared to other people in Britain.

That was one of the findings in a piece of MORI research from 2008 which looked at people’s actual level of personal income and how they thought that level of income compared to everyone else.

Of people who were in the richest 10%, nearly four out of five (79%) thought they were less well off than that and were not actually amongst the richest 10%. Only a fifth (21%) got their place in the richest 10% correct.

However, of …

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Gender pay audits: government to try voluntary route first, option for mandatory audits remains

In news this morning Home Office minister and Liberal Democrat MP Lynne Featherstone said that the government would be looking to get voluntary agreement from industry for gender pay audits, which would reveal cases of unreasonably disparity in pay between men and women. An attempt to introduce voluntary agreement previously fell apart under the Labour government.

There is also unimplemented legislation on the statue book to allow for mandatory pay audits. The legislation was introduced by Labour, but not brought into force (nor were they any immediate plans from Labour to do so).

Whilst the government is not moving straight away to …

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Is the Coalition Government’s honeymoon really over?

Forget the Lib Dems’ current poll-ratings for a moment – though today’s 19% from ICM will have done a fair amount to repair nerves frayed by YouGov’s poorer recent scores – and let’s focus on the Coalition Government as a whole.

Last week, YouGov’s Peter Kellner stated categorically: The honeymoon is over. His logic was simple enough:

Over the past four weeks, the coalition’s approval rating has slipped slowly but remorselessly. Our latest figures report a net rating of plus four (approve 41%, disapprove 37%). In just over two months, the coalition’s rating has declined to levels that were not

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The class dimension to turnout

It’s been a long established pattern of British politics that the higher you go up the social scale, the higher turnout is in elections. The 2010 general election is no exception but looking through the numbers one class dimension comes out. Overall turnout collapsed after 1997 and has since had a modest recovery, but the pattern of that recovery across the classes is far from even.

Amongst DEs, turnout in 2010 was 57%, still 9 points down on the 66% turnout in 1997. It was a similar picture amongst C2s (58%, still 11 points down) and C1s (66%, still 9 points …

Posted in General Election | Also tagged | 1 Comment

An electoral problem

The following data is from MORI’s aggregate polling 6 April – 6 May and shows how levels of Liberal Democrat support and turnout varied across different age groups:

MORI election data graph

This problem isn’t new to the 2010 general election, though the pattern was less neat in 2005. It does raise an interesting question for the party’s get out the vote efforts though, both in terms of technology and targeting.

Some places have made very successful use of technology such as text messaging to …

Posted in News | Also tagged | 17 Comments

Public interest up, turnout down

One of the great strengths of the polling firm MORI is that they have consistently asked the same questions over decades, making comparisons across elections, decades and even generations possible.* One of these comparisons over time that has caught my eye is the level of public interest in elections:

Thinking back to the campaign, how interested would you say you were in news about the General Election?

1992: 52% very or fairly interested
2010: 75% very or fairly interested

That is a big increase in the level of declared public interest in election news. Turnout, however, was 78% in 1992, falling to 65% …

Posted in News | Also tagged | 14 Comments

Poll ups pressure on Cameron over TV debates

I pointed out before that the key to getting a boost in support out of TV leader debates isn’t so much winning the debate as beating expectations: if people expected you to do dreadfully and you come out doing ok that’s almost always a boost to a campaign, whilst being seen as doing ok when the expectations were that you would walk it means you lose support.

So the pressure really is on David Cameron as he’s the one going in to the debates with highest expectations on him according to the latest MORI opinion poll:

Which leader do you

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YouGov and female voters: what happened in 2009?

Just over a year ago, I highlighted how YouGov consistently found the Conservatives relatively more popular amongst women than men compared to other pollsters:

YouGov, MORI and ComRes are the three of the main polling companies who also provide a gender breakdown of party levels of support using the same methodology as for their headline voting question…

Whilst YouGov consistently finds the Conservative party more popular amongst women than men, the other two consistently find the opposite. There is a similar difference amongst the pollsters when it comes to Labour support, though this time the gender pattern is reversed.

With more polling …

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Majority of public think men are paid more than women for doing equal jobs

According to a poll carried out last month by MORI, the majority of people believe that men are paid more than women for doing equal work.

The poll found that 52% of people disagree with the statement that men and women receive the same pay for doing jobs of equal value. Overall 40% think that men and woman are paid equally. There is however a big gender gap – 48% of men think men and women are paid equally but only 32% of women.

The poll also found that 85% of people agree with introducing “a legal requirement for employers to conduct annual pay …

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The problem with Gordon’s speech was that it was so Gordon #lab09

Living in London and (attempting) to use the Tube most days, it’s deeply ironic the legacy of Gordon Brown’s political career which I am reminded of most often – his insistence on forcing through the botched part-privatisation of the Tube – is something quite at odds with his overall record.

For his overall record is not of dogged determination to bring in as quickly as possible a radical policy come what may, but instead it is one of ducking the big tough choices and looking to attempt to play clever with the details instead. Not so much a case of fiddling …

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What does the public think on tax, spending and the budget deficit?

From MORI’s latest email newsletter rounding up some of their most recent poll findings:

Many believe that efficiencies, rather than cuts, can ‘rebalance the books’. Four in five (79%) agree that efficiencies can help cut government spending without damaging services, while around half (51%) are not persuaded that there is a need to cut spending on services to pay off the national debt. This suggests that many of the public are either not aware of, or not facing up to, ‘hard truths’, as espoused by many independent experts like Robert Chote of the IFS.

No public consensus exists on how best to

Posted in Polls | 3 Comments

A look back at the polls: March 2009

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in March:

Tories 42%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 19% – Populus/Times (9th March 2009)
Tories 41%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 17% – YouGov/S. Times (15th March)
Tories 42%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 14%

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A look back at the polls: February 2009

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the seven polls published in February:

Tories 40%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 22% – ICM/S. Telegraph (8th Feb 2009)
Tories 42%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 18% – Populus/Times (10th Feb)
Tories 41%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 22% – ComRes/S. Independent (15th Feb)
Tories 44%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 14% – YouGov/S. Times (15th Feb)
Tories 48%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 17% – Mori/unpublished (17th Nov)
Tories 42%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 18% – ICM/Guardian (24th Nov)
Tories 41%, Labour 31%, Lib Dems 15% – YouGov/Telegraph (27th Nov)

Which gives us an average rating for the parties in February as follows, compared with January’s averages:

Tories 43% (n/c), Labour 29% (-3%), Lib Dems 18% (+2%)

What to make of this month’s polls, which paradoxically convey both stability and fluctuation? The Tories seem to be relatively stable, in the low 40s% – except for Mori which elevates them to 48%, touching the heights of New Labour before its landslide. Labour appear relatively stable, hovering just at or below 30% – except for ComRes which relegates them to 25%, only a margin of error’s breadth ahead of the Lib Dems. And the Lib Dems seem to be relatively stable in the 17-22% range – except for YouGov which sees the party stuck firmly at a pretty paltry 14-15%.

All this statistical noise is, of course, ironed out by our monthly average, which sees Labour ceding ground to the Lib Dems. Indeed, it seems a lifetime ago, but just back in December Labour’s poll average was 35%: they have dropped 6% in the space of just a few weeks, with the spoils evenly shared between the Lib Dems and Tories.

Such has been Labour’s decline that it has prompted a brief effervescence of speculation that Gordon Brown might be tempted to resign if he thought it would assist his party’s fortunes. This prompted ICM to ask the question on behalf of The Guardian: ‘Putting aside your own political party preference for a moment do you think Labour will do better at the next general election with Gordon Brown in charge, or with another leader?’

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A look back at the polls: January ’09

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in January:

Tories 41%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 15% – YouGov/The Sun (9 Jan)
Tories 43%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 15% – Populus/The Times

Posted in Op-eds and Polls | Also tagged , , , and | 5 Comments

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