The pollsters MORI have recently re-released some of their polling data from January and the question of whether or not people like a party paints a very different picture from the usual voting intention figures.
Overall it shows the Conservatives the least liked party, Labour (despite its voting intention poll ratings at the moment) only marginally in the positive and the Liberal Democrats in the negatives, but with still a very healthy chunk of the population liking the party.
For the Conservatives and Labour these figures reinforce comments often made about them – that the detoxification of the Conservative brand never fully succeeded and that Labour’s apparent popularity at the moment risks turning out to be similar to some of Labour’s periods of high poll ratings between 1979 and 1992, namely hiding deeper weaknesses that need tackling if the party isn’t to fall back when it comes to the crunch.
For the Liberal Democrats the figures reinforce the comments I’ve heard several people make around the country – which is that when they can persuade colleagues to get out canvassing the results are often far better than those reluctant colleagues expected.
For all the vitriol in some quarters, there are still many people who take a completely different view of the party.
It’s also notable that when I’ve chatted to Liberal Democrats about these poll figures in the last few days, those who are most surprised by them are by and large those who have done the least talking to the public on doorsteps in the last few weeks.
These figures are, of course, only part of the story – but they do hint towards local election results in May that vary greatly from one ward to another, particularly depending on how motivated local teams are to get out and talk to the public rather than judge the local political scene through prisms such as the Guardian letters page.
Here are the details of the MORI figures:
Like the party (whether like leader or not):
Conservative 37%
Labour 45%
Liberal Democrat 40%
Do not like the party (whether like leader or not):
Conservative 56%
Labour 42%
Liberal Democrat 51%
Net figures:
Conservative -19%
Labour +3%
Liberal Democrat -11%
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15 Comments
Judging the political mood in Britain from any newspaper letter page is likely to be highly misleading, one way or the other.
It would be interesting to know if MORI asked the same question in previous years, and if so how the figures have changed for each party.
This is quite old data though. I fear the picture might be worse now because people are waking up belatedly to the reality of the NHS “reforms”.
As always though, it’s about the work that has gone in on the ground. When I was delivering with a Southwark councillor (aka my Mum) recently I was amazed that the atmosphere was so friendly. In unworked places (I am resident in a Lib Dem council ward and recently received my first FOCUS in four years!) I think a lynching is on the way.
I think we have to tackle the elephant in the room here.
Like the party (whether like leader or not):
Fightin the local elections and AV vote without Clegg as a leader is not an option. Not yet anyway.
I can quite understand how ignoring Clegg as leader would tend to make for more favourable polling, but he’s there, he can’t hide till after May, and he’s going to have face up to the fact that the May election results and AV vote will be his election results and AV vote.
“particularly depending on how motivated local teams are to get out and talk to the public”
They are going to be the ones facing a pretty angry voter on the doorstep so you can hardly blame them if they are less motivated than usual.
It’s safe to say that after May there will be a need for those activists who worked in the face of adversity to be rewarded by feeling any concerns they have about the current direction of policy will be adressed.
If they feel they just stuck their head in the lions mouth just to see their efforts either belittled or the results ignored as a protest vote by Clegg then many of them will simply walk or not bother in the future.
Interesting that you ignore two other statistics: (1) Only 10% would vote LD in a General Election,(2) Only 6% trust LD on the economy. I suspect these are more relevant than a question about “liking” a party or leader. As for the local elections, obviously those places that have hard-working candidates who already contribute to their local communities will stand a much better chance. However, its a shame that many will be let down by the national party that has reneged on a number of pre-election promises (even pledges) and has tarred the LDs with a reputation of being untrustworthy..
I hope that after May 5th when we’ve lost 900 councillors and the AV referendum people will actually face reality rather than scratching around for crumbs of comfort like this. The membership of the party has to wake up and hold the leadership accountable for what it is doing in our name. But sure, you can’t judge the political mood of Britain from comments on a blog page either.
Ruth: It’s data that is post-comprehensive spending review, post-tuition fees and post-the decision on VAT and so on. So I think it would be a mistake to expect that the picture would have changed drastically in the recent few weeks between this data and today, especially given that the party’s poll ratings have been overall pretty much unchanged in that period. Indeed, the most recent polls (post-budget and post-NHS debate) if anything show the party doing slightly better than before those two events. But certainly agree with you on the big difference between different sorts of areas.
John: Your comment about the reactions on the doorstep seems to just skip past the evidence I’ve given that the reality is different from that – many canvassers have said the reaction is less hostile than they expected (and that reflects my own experience on the doorsteps too), and this MORI data helps explain why. Is your comment based on your own experience out canvassing for any party?
What we have to remember are the very high levels of conformity shown by decades of research into social attitudes. A big chunk of the population want desperately to go along with everyone else. Right now ” everybody knows” the LibDems are hated so a lot of voters will go along with that.
If we dont do as badly as predicted in May the “story” will begin to change.
This all reminds me of a divorce. Love turns to hate and then to indifference. That isn’t a good sign, it means the relationship is well and truly over.
I suspect that people have stopped listening to the Liberal Democrats, just as they stopped listening to John Major and Gordon Brown.
Mark, I’m saying Liberal Democrat activists are going to face angry voters.
We won’t know the actual scale until May, but you cannot seriously doubt these will be the most trying elections some Liberal Democrats activists will ever face.
You may well be right in your anecdotal evidence of there being some places where there aren’t quite as many angry voters as the opinion polls and others are saying.
But it’s a big leap to then assume there won’t be any angry voters or that all the hostility is media froth.
And though I haven’t been cavassing I can only tell you that the best reactions I have seen to Clegg are indifference. The worst reactions are startlingly venomous.
This polling and others like it will tell you the ‘gap’ between how the public feels about Liberal Democrats in general and how they feel about the party with Clegg in charge. I know the Clegg loyalists won’t like it but as long as the unpopularity is focused on one man rather than the entire party then there are always possibilities for a sea change in opinion.
If the unpopularity of Clegg reaches levels where it spills over onto entire Liberal Democrat party then you reach a stage where Liberal Democrats will have to go through the self same detoxification process the Conservatives went through.
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This is why I figured the coalition was such a bad idea in the first place – because while a lot of people vote Lab or Lib out of political conviction they oppose the Tories out of a much deeper sense of basic morality.
You cannot detoxify what is essentially toxic.
@ John Basil – bit of a rant about Clegg there; the latest polling from Mori shows that he’s actually popular with around 40% of the population. That’s probably (counter intuitively) somewhat more popular than our last couple of leaders . . .
Yes, he is considerably more popular with Tories than previous leaders.
“the latest polling from Mori shows that he’s actually popular with around 40% of the population. That’s probably (counter intuitively) somewhat more popular than our last couple of leaders . . .”
I can’t find any coamparative figures for this “like/dislike” question, but I should be absolutely astonished if Clegg were now more popular (in any sense) than Kennedy used to be.
On the standard “satisfied/dissatisfied” rating, Clegg’s net satisfaction rating this year has been _minus_ 22-23, while the percentage satisfied has been 32-34.
Looking at Kennedy’s figures from 2005, his net satisfaction rating was _plus_ 8-20, and the percentage satisfied was 37-49.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/88/Political-Monitor-Satisfaction-Ratings-1997Present.aspx?view=wide
I too agree that the response on the doorstep is a lot more positive than the polls and the national media might suggest; doorstep canvassing does of course tend to take place in areas where we already have a track record of activity, and tends to pick up middle aged and older votes who are more likely to be householders and be in during the early evening when canvassing takes place. It’s these people who tend to be more positive about the coalition and more understanding that when working with another party there will inevitably be compromises.
On a related subject, I do hope there is no truth in the recent media stories that the LibDems are thinking of a branding makeover. Whatever our current challenges, branding is not one of them, and I do not think a new logo will do our credibility any good.