UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

We’re 15 months from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

Lib Dems winning hereI published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those of you who have helped me keep it updated, including the party’s Candidates Services Office. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 45/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (79%); 8/57 MPs retiring (14%) – 6 successors selected.

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

Top targets from Labour: 11/23 candidates selected (48%).

With 450 days to the next election, the Lib Dems have candidates in place in 25 of our top 50 targets – exactly half. Realistically, seats currently held by the Tories are more likely prospects for the party. However, there remain 7 Tory targets in the overall top 50 – that’s more than one-quarter of them – where the party has neither selected a candidate nor yet advertised for one. If there’s one thing we know about winning seats, it’s the importance of selecting a credible candidate good and early.

How are we doing on the female:male candidate selection? Well, there’s progress. To date, five of the six seats currently held by Lib Dems where the MPs are retiring have selected women candidates; in the sixth, Brent East, the party has selected a candidate from an ethnic minority. That’s an impressive record. Other than deselecting sitting MPs – not a great idea when we’ll rely on incumbency in 2015 – there’s not much more that can currently be achieved. However, the overall picture is still not great: the Lib Dems currently have 11 women selected to stand in our 57 held seats. There are a further three selections due: in Bath and in North East Fife where, respectively, Don Foster and Ming Campbell have announced their retirement; and in Portsmouth South, where Mike Hancock’s suspension from the national party makes him ineligible to be re-adopted. In the top 50 target seats, of which 25 have selected candidates so far, there are seven more men (16) than women (9).

Held seats:
Number of women currently expected to be standing in 2015: 11/57 (19%)

Top 50 target seats:
Number of women currently selected in 2015: 9/50 (18%)
Number of men currently selected in 2015: 16/50 (32%)

The lists below are my best understanding of the current situation. Please do let me know if you can help me update it.

Here’s the full list of the 57 MPs elected as Liberal Democrats in May 2010:

    Danny Alexander, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – RESELECTED
    Norman Baker, Lewes – RESELECTED
    Alan Beith, Berwick-upon-Tweed – RETIRING. Julie Pörksen selected
    Gordon Birtwistle, Burnley – RESELECTED
    Tom Brake, Carshalton and Wallington – RESELECTED
    Annette Brooke, Mid Dorset and North Poole – RETIRING. Vikki Slade selected
    Jeremy Browne, Taunton – RESELECTED
    Malcolm Bruce, Gordon – RETIRING. Christine Jardine selected
    Paul Burstow, Sutton and Cheam – RESELECTED
    Lorely Burt, Solihull – RESELECTED
    Vincent Cable, Twickenham – RESELECTED
    Menzies Campbell, North East Fife – RETIRING, selection in process.
    Alistair Carmichael, Orkney and Shetland – RESELECTED
    Nick Clegg, Sheffield Hallam – RESELECTED
    Michael Crockart, Edinburgh West
    Edward Davey, Kingston and Surbiton – RESELECTED
    Tim Farron, Westmorland and Lonsdale – RESELECTED
    Lynne Featherstone, Hornsey and Wood Green – RESELECTED
    Don Foster, Bath RETIRING
    Andrew George, St Ives – RESELECTED
    Stephen Gilbert, St Austell & Newquay
    Duncan Hames, Chippenham – RESELECTED
    Mike Hancock, Portsmouth South CURRENTLY SUSPENDED, selection in process.
    Nick Harvey, North Devon – RESELECTED
    David Heath, Somerton and Frome – RETIRING, Sarah Yong selected
    John Hemming, Birmingham Yardley
    Martin Horwood, Cheltenham – RESELECTED
    Simon Hughes, North Southwark and Bermondsey – RESELECTED
    Chris Huhne, Eastleigh – NB: Mike Thornton
    Mark Hunter, Cheadle – RESELECTED
    Julian Huppert, Cambridge RESELECTED
    Charles Kennedy, Ross, Skye and Lochaber – RESELECTED
    Norman Lamb, North Norfolk
    David Laws, Yeovil – RESELECTED
    John Leech, Manchester Withington – RESELECTED
    Stephen Lloyd, Eastbourne – RESELECTED
    Michael Moore, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Greg Mulholland, Leeds North West – RESELECTED
    Tessa Munt, Wells – RESELECTED
    John Pugh, Southport
    Alan Reid, Argyll and Bute
    Dan Rogerson, North Cornwall
    Bob Russell, Colchester – RESELECTED
    Adrian Sanders, Torbay – RESELECTED
    Robert Smith, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – RESELECTED
    Andrew Stunell, Hazel Grove – RETIRING. Lisa Smart selected.
    Ian Swales, Redcar – RESELECTED
    Jo Swinson, East Dunbartonshire – RESELECTED
    Sarah Teather, Brent Central – RETIRING, Ibrahim Taguri selected
    John Thurso, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    David Ward, Bradford East – RESELECTED
    Steve Webb, Thornbury & Yate – RESELECTED
    Simon Wright, Norwich South – RESELECTED
    Mark Williams, Ceredigion – RESELECTED
    Roger Williams, Brecon and Radnorshire – RESELECTED
    Stephen Williams, Bristol West – RESELECTED
    Jenny Willott, Cardiff Central – RESELECTED

And here are the party’s top 50 targets (as listed by UK Polling Report):

    1. Camborne and Redruth (Con, maj: 66) Swing required 0.08% Selection in process
    2. Oldham East and Saddleworth (Lab, maj: 103) Swing required 0.12% Richard Marbrow selected
    3. Oxford West and Abingdon (Con, maj: 176) Swing required 0.16% Layla Moran selected
    4. Ashfield (Lab, maj: 192) Swing required 0.2% Jason Zadrozny selected
    5. Sheffield Central (Lab, maj: 165) Swing required 0.2% Selection in process
    6. Edinburgh South (Lab, maj: 316) Swing required 0.36%
    7. Truro and Falmouth (Con, maj: 435) Swing required 0.45% Simon Rix selected
    8. Newton Abbot (Con, maj: 523) Swing required 0.55% Richard Younger-Ross selected
    9. Chesterfield (Lab, maj: 549) Swing required 0.6% Julia Cambridge selected
    10. Swansea West (Lab, maj: 504) Swing required 0.71%
    11. Hull North (Lab, maj: 641) Swing required 0.96% Mike Ross selected
    12. Rochdale (Lab, maj: 889) Swing required 0.97% Andrew Kelly selected
    13. Harrogate and Knaresborough (Con, maj: 1039) Swing required 0.98% Helen Flynn selected
    14. Watford (Con, maj: 1425) Swing required 1.29%
    15. Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab, maj: 42) Swing required 1.51% Maajid Nawaz selected
    16. Montgomeryshire (Con, maj: 1184) Swing required 1.75% Jane Dodds selected
    17. Edinburgh North and Leith (Lab, maj: 1724) Swing required 1.82%
    18. St Albans (Con, maj: 2305) Swing required 2.19% Sandy Walkington selected
    19. Newport East (Lab, maj: 1650) Swing required 2.39%
    20. Weston-Super-Mare (Con, maj: 2691) Swing required 2.56% Mike Bell selected
    21. Hereford and Herefordshire South (Con, maj: 2481) Swing required 2.57% Lucy Hurds selected
    22. Devon West and Torridge (Con, maj: 2957) Swing required 2.68% Selection in process
    23. Winchester (Con, maj: 3048) Swing required 2.73% Jackie Porter selected
    24. Northampton North (Con, maj: 1936) Swing required 3.09%
    25. Cornwall South East (Con, maj: 3220) Swing required 3.25% Phil Hutty selected
    26. Bristol North West (Con, maj: 3274) Swing required 3.25%
    27. Durham, City of (Lab, maj: 3067) Swing required 3.32%
    28. Dorset West (Con, maj: 3923) Swing required 3.42% Ros Kayes selected
    29. Richmond Park (Con, maj: 4091) Swing required 3.45% Robin Meltzer selected
    30. York Outer (Con, maj: 3688) Swing required 3.46% Selection in process
    31. Streatham (Lab, maj: 3259) Swing required 3.48% Amna Ahmad selected
    32. Derby North (Lab, maj: 613) Swing required 3.65% Lucy Care selected
    33. Pontypridd (Lab, maj: 2785) Swing required 3.8% Mike Powell selected
    34. Newcastle upon Tyne North (Lab, maj: 3414) Swing required 3.89%
    35. Aberdeen South (Lab, maj: 3506) Swing required 4.07%
    36. Islington South and Finsbury (Lab, maj: 3569) Swing required 4.1% Terry Stacy selected
    37. Birmingham Hall Green (Lab, maj: 3799) Swing required 4.16% Jerry Evans selected
    38. Romsey and Southampton North (Con, maj: 4156) Swing required 4.25% Selection in process
    39. Colne Valley (Con, maj: 4837) Swing required 4.37%
    40. Oxford East (Lab, maj: 4581) Swing required 4.44% Selection in process
    41. Bosworth (Con, maj: 5032) Swing required 4.64% Michael Mullaney selected
    42. Chelmsford (Con, maj: 5110) Swing required 4.68% Selection in process
    43. Bristol South (Lab, maj: 4734) Swing required 4.9%
    44. Totnes (Con, maj: 4927) Swing required 5.15%
    45. Cambridgeshire South East (Con, maj: 5946) Swing required 5.17% Jonathan Chatfield selected
    46. Ealing Central and Acton (Con, maj: 3716) Swing required 5.2% Jon Ball selected
    47. Warrington South (Con, maj: 1553) Swing required 5.45%
    48. Wrexham (Lab, maj: 3658) Swing required 5.55%
    49. Dunfermline and Fife West (Lab, maj: 5470) Swing required 5.59%
    50. Tewkesbury (Con, maj: 6310) Swing required 5.85%

For the record, these are the 13 seats we lost in May 2010 (all feature above, in the top 50 targets):

    Romsey (Sandra Gidley, 2000-10)
    Falmouth and Camborne (Julia Goldsworthy, 2005-10)
    Oxford West and Abingdon (Evan Harris, 1997-2010)
    Chesterfield (Paul Holmes, 2001-10)
    Richmond Park (Susan Kramer, 2005-10)
    Montgomeryshire (Lembit Öpik, 1997-2010)
    Dunfermline and West Fife (Willie Rennie, 2006-10)
    Rochdale (Paul Rowen, 2005-10)
    Newton Abbot (Richard Younger-Ross, 2001-10)
    Winchester (Mark Oaten, 1997-2010: retired)
    Hereford & S. Herefordshire (Paul Keetch 1997-2010: retired)
    Harrogate and Knaresborough (Phil Willis, 1997-2010: retired)
    Cornwall South East (Colin Breed, 1997-2010: retired)

The party publishes information on the overall diversity of candidates selected so far (though note this includes all candidates, in seats both winnable as well as those which aren’t)…

Parliamentary Candidates standing for 2015 General Election

Figures valid as of 01/07/2013 (to be updated every 6 months when selections start)

The total number of candidates currently selected – 38

Total number of selected women – 12 (32%)

Total number of selected candidates identifying as Black, Asian or Ethnic Minority (BAME) – 1 (3%)

Total number of selected candidates identifying as LGBT – 1 (3%)

Total number of selected candidate who identify as disabled – 1 (3%)

Total number of candidates aged
18-24 – 0 (0%)
25-34 – 6 (16%)
35-44 – 11 (29%)
45-54 – 10 (26%)
55+ – 8 (21%)

* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.

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8 Comments

  • Greg Foster 9th Feb '14 - 8:56am

    Pretty sure Roger Williams has been re-selected by B&R.

  • sam Bennett 9th Feb '14 - 9:57am

    Roger Williams was reselected in the summer. I say that as his organiser

  • Slightly concerned, Stephen at your use of the term “credible” (as you are acknowledgedly from the economic [neo] liberal wing of the party). I have heard this term used to put down those on the radical wing of the party previously. I can understand, of course, if you purely mean “credible” to refer to people who are not complete id*ots and do not have a very difficult personal record to defend.

  • David Evans 9th Feb '14 - 4:50pm

    How are we doing on the female:male candidate selection? Well, there’s progress. To date, five of the six seats currently held by Lib Dems where the MPs are retiring have selected women candidates; in the sixth, Brent East, the party has selected a candidate from an ethnic minority. That’s an impressive record.

    Well only to a slight extent. Its an impressive record if they win. If they lose all we will have done is increase the proportion of women MPs by losing seats. Not an objective any of us sign up for.

  • Colin Rosenstiel 9th Feb '14 - 5:45pm

    45. Cambridgeshire South East (Con, maj: 5946) Swing required 5.17% Jonathan Chatsworth selected
    You mean Jonathan Chatfield.

  • The results of next years General Election and who wins what seat will be out in Pakistan next week.

  • Looking forward to getting to work in 33!

  • John Hemming has been reselected for Birmingham Yardley.

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