Almost all the polls have now been published and election day is tomorrow – so the time has come to put your pundit’s reputation on the line and say what you think will be the result of the Scottish independence referendum.
A quick reminder for those who’ve been fogged by the blizzard of polls in the last couple of days:
-
Ipsos MORI: Yes 49%, No 51%
Panelbase: Yes 48%, No 52%
ICM: Yes 48%, No 52%
Opinium: Yes 48%, No 52%
Survation: Yes 48%, No 52%
(via UK Polling Report, excluding Don’t Knows)
If you’re interested in the polls, by the way, do read John McDermott’s terrific analysis in the Financial Times, Why a Yes vote would confound pollsters (free, but registration required). He cites an analysis by Anthony McGann of the University of Strathclyde which shows that, at 48%, “support for Yes is the highest it has ever been”. However, he adds, “the margin of error using this method is 0.9 percentage points, smaller than the usual 3 percentage points because it is an average of lots of data. Therefore, victory for Yes is outside the margin of error according to this method. In other words, using this analysis, the race is not “too close to call”; No is likely to win.”
I’m an unashamedly data-driven chap, so I’m going to place my faith in the pollsters (for all that this is a one-off event with a likely unprecedentedly high turn-out which might just upset all the standard calculations). I’m calling a No win.
But I’m going to add a pinch of my own gut instinct, too, and reckon the Don’t Knows will break in the No’s favour and there will be a slight swing back to the No camp among Labour voters in the final 24 hours. So my final prediction is 54%-46% against independence.
There, that’s my colours pinned to the mast. Over to you…
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
68 Comments
My fear is unrest and civil disorder
No: 54%
Yes: 46%
That’s an 8% gap … could be larger … who knows?
45% Yes : 55% No.
More importnatly I predict (after Nick Robinson) that the tide will change on Friday morning, and we will begin to discuss the upcoming constitutional settlement from an English (Clacton) perspective. Slowly over the coming month there will be a Northern angle. Hopefully it will never be the same again. But I hope Scotland stays.
By the way. What a politician Gordon Brown could have been….
I’m guessing No with 51.6%.
I think the No side will win (with my vote amongst them) but narrowly. Despite the self congratulatory comments from the Yes side about how healthy this has been for Scottish democracy, the campaign has been ugly and mean spirited. I am not sure how long it will take for Scotland to heal.
I have already heard of friends whose Edinburgh based financial services jobs are moving south whatever the result. We have spooked a great industry and (like what happened to Montreal) I predict Edinburgh’s financial services industry will decline. We have killed the golden goose!
Well just for fun I’ll go the opposite direction: 52% YES, 48% NO. I can’t really believe that will be the result (which might simply be normalcy bias on my part) but the turnout from the postal vote makes me wonder if there isn’t a systemic error in the polling methodologies due to under-representing what is likely to be the actual turnout from DE and 16-24. Anyway, we’ll know in 24 hours time.
An exact dead heat!
Paul in Wokingham – There is an interesting story that no one seems to have mentioned. The bookies have been absolutely rock-solid in the odds they have been offering for months. Despite the changing polls and all the media and internet froth, there has been no response in the odds on offer.
I guess (stress, guess) that that means the money bet is only going in one direction. And by and large people take their money pretty seriously. Those probably are UK betting patterns of course, but it is still interesting to see that the odds have not been affected.
I’m on record in months past as predicting a rough 2:1 ratio, i was wrong.
However, i think Stephen is close to the money:
“So my final prediction is 54%-46% against independence.”
Well, Stephen – I believe the voters will be the real winners.
The final Survation, released after you posted, was 53% No 47%Yes – this is my gut feeling as well. Brown’s speech hammered home a new, positive message that I expect will bring some DKs into No, whilst the Yes campaign was – largely – the same message again.
Saying that, as long as it is 50.1%+ for No I’ll be happy with be wrong.
A resounding YES such high turn out its a landslide for yes
ICM has 45-41 with don’t knows on 14. I am guessing that at this stage most of the remaining don’t knows are shy no voters, or people who will back the devil they know. I also think some yes support remains soft and will vote no in the privacy of the ballot box.
So, put me down for:
YES 43.5%
NO 56.5%
Though in all probability I will end up with egg on my face.
It rather depends on how well the pollsters have worked out how to calculate their weightings for the large cohort of previously non-voters. Even an informal poll of polls says knife-edge shading to No, but the pollsters will be holding their breath until Friday morning.
Little Jackie Paper – I wondered about a dead heat. Guess what. There is no provision for that in the Act. There is also no provision for recounts which can only be done by court challenge, apparently. This could get interesting.
I’m too involved in this. I can’t make a prediction. What I will say is that when I watch the tv news, I get depressed. When I talk to voters, I feel better. But the voters I’m talking to aren’t necessarily in the key places where Yes may well break through.
53-47 to No. Anyway, besides getting out the vote, these last hours need to be dedicated to sowing the seeds of doubt in Yes voters and winning over undecides.
The world is watching and we don’t want to embolden nationalists and separatists across the globe. I understand a yes vote, but I can still say what I think is best. Regards.
53% No
But how the parties are going to deliver on their promises is beyond me.
I don’t think the guessing-game is fun or interesting. What the Liberal Democrats should be doing instead is preparing for both possible outcomes:
If NO wins, to guarantee the best possible outcome for a fully autonomous Scotland within the UK, short of independence;
If YES wins, to do everything to prevent punitive measures from being taken, and to create a new framework for Great Britain in which the remaining UK and independent Scotland would take part.
Ideally, of course, those two options should be identical in everything but name.
I have too much emotional investment in this vote to be objective. The prospect of a “YES” victory fills me with the utmost dread.
What could assist the “YES” camp?
Firstly, a higher than usual turnout among younger, working-class men in the housing schemes and ex-industrial towns of the Central Belt who have been persuaded that “Westminster” is to blame for their woes. Secondly, “NO” sympathisers fearful that the SNP will find out how they have voted, who either vote “YES” or don’t vote at all.
What could assist the “NO” camp?
Firstly, an exceptionally high turnout among middle-class voters terrified of the economic consequences of separation. Secondly, mainly older urban Labour voters drawn back to “NO” by Gordon Brown’s appeal to working-class solidarity. Thirdly, a segment of mainly women voters turned off the “YES” campaign by the dreadful behaviour of many of its supporters.
So, barring unforeseen calamities, I predict 55% -45% to “NO”, while recognising that I am very, very biased.
57% No, on the grounds that many No Voters are saying Dnot Know or Wont Say. That will have implications for us too as LibDem Voters are also browbeaten into hiding.
@Paul Barker – LibDem Voters are also browbeaten into hiding
So “browbeaten” that they won’t even declare when in the privacy of the polling booth!
Caron Lindsay – OK then, if we get a tie, what do you think? Draw straws? Coin toss? penalty shoot-out?
Facetiousness aside though, that recount thing sounds a bit of a hostage to fortune. That is surprising.
The chances of a tie in an election involving 3 or 4 million voters are so remote that worrying about it would have to be some sort of displacement activity.
entertaining prospect:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael
there are conseqences to your choices, Scotland. the genie is yours to let free…
No will win. As others have pointed out there will be a proportion who will not admit to voting NO whist very few will admit to voting YES. I agree more or less with Stephen’s prediction so to be a little different I will go for 53.5% NO.
The further prediction will be trouble for Lib Dem and Labour MPs at the next general election.
53% YES. Not because I think it will happen (with all the polls converging on 52% NO) but it puts me into a different area to most predictions so far. The pollsters won’t have ever covered such a high turnout, or know in detail the weightings to use as the poll is a one-off, so I don’t think it’s clear cut and there’s a higher likelihood of systemic error than in standing voting intention polls.
Sadly, I’m more confident in predicting riots in Glasgow on Friday and Saturday nights, and months and possibly years of bitterness in Scottish politics.
My own view is that I guess I want Scotland to stay, but it’s their own choice and I’m leaving them to make it. I certainly don’t support the “vows” of further devolution of powers with assurances over Barnett continuing, as our leaders have panicked and done this week. If it takes this bribing and cajoling to persuade them to stay, then they should probably leave and leave quickly.
Yes:No 47:53 I hope.
Pollsters will all have problems. Telephone polls won’t all reach those with mobiles (young especially but who are more No than Yes, at least 16 & 17 year olds), nor can internet surveys be balanced properly easily with previous voting intention or newspaper readership as parties as newspaper readership splits.
But the verification of postal votes (19% of electorate have postal votes) will mean that the leadership of both sides will almost certainly know the likely result – but illegal for them to say. If Yes was winning, I would have expected the SNP to ‘leak’ the fact on the basis that DKs like to back a winner and losers are dispirited. Salmond does not sound confident enough, nor does Murdoch’s Sun which would be backing Yes if RM thought it would win…
I think No will win by more – 56% No and 44% YES.
It will be interesting to see the breakdown by council, as I expect some huge divergences.
No 53,
No 53, Yes 47.
Secondly, mainly older urban Labour voters drawn back to “NO” by Gordon Brown’s appeal to working-class solidarity.
Agree this could certainly be a factor, especially after Brown’s excellent speech today. For those who haven’t seen it, it’s well worth watching:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk&feature=youtu.be
My prediction is 54% No on an 81% turnout.
My guess is 44 Yes 56 No.
Betfair sportsbook has already paid out on No winning. They, and their customers on the exchange are the people whose business is to know the result. Not political commentators.
“57% No, on the grounds that many No Voters are saying Dnot Know or Wont Say. That will have implications for us too as LibDem Voters are also browbeaten into hiding.”
I had been waiting for Paul Barker’s prediction, as a guide.
Sadly, I must conclude from it that the result will be “Yes”tomorrow.
Whatever the result today, in 10 years time the majority of Scots will say that they made the wrong decision on September 18th 2014. That is how long the shelf life has been in recent years for even the most popular parties or political figures of the day and for the general public to give up on the party they have put into Government..
In 1979 a popular Margaret Thatcher was elected Prime Minister with a clear majority and 10 years later, even her own party was baying for her blood and she was booted out. In 1997 Tony Blair was the man of the moment when he swept Labour into power – by 2007 he too was forced out of office.
If there is a No vote, the SNP will continue to press for independence, as it is their reason for existence, and even though they usually only return 5 or 6 MPs to Westminster, which might indicate the Scottish public do not agree with them, this has never dented their resolve to push for independence. Do not believe Alex Salmond when he says that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to vote on this issue. If he loses, his party will press and press for another referendum after the 2016 Scottish elections.
If there is a Yes vote, every problem Scotland has in the years ahead will be put down to the independence vote. If the phones 4U job losses were announced next week instead of this week, it would have been blamed on the vote today.
Regardless of the result, from tomorrow the Labour and Conservative parties will turn their guns to point towards Liberal Democrats defending seats in the General Election as the period of working together to save the Union in the No campaign will end at 10pm, when the polls close.
Sesenco
mainly older urban Labour voters drawn back to “NO” by Gordon Brown’s appeal to working-class solidarity
Did Gordon Brown actually make an ” appeal to working-class solidarity”. ??? Or is that your own phrase? To me the thought of Blair’s number two and the solidarity of the workers does not compute.
Brown may have been presented in the media as a big fish. But his highly staged, made for TV , invitiation only, strictly choregraphed sound bites in front of a dozenor so Labour party members who tried to look interested but displayed all the enthusiasm of wooden dolls would if they were actually seen by any real members of the working class on their TV sets would no doubt be met with indifference or something very rude. The London media might be fooled by the spin about Brown’s enduring popularity but I do not believe it. Darling, Brown and even the old war criminal millionaire Blair were put on display; but working class solidarity is the last thing I would associate with any of them.
John Barrett
“…Regardless of the result, from tomorrow the Labour and Conservative parties will turn their guns to point towards Liberal Democrats defending seats in the General Election as the period of working together to save the Union in the No campaign will end at 10pm, when the polls close…”
Absolutely right — any Liberal Democrats who have invested time and money working for the NO side will not be thanked or spared by our political enemies in the days between now and May.
The majority of Scots are sensible. The sensible thing is to do everything you can to get more power before the vote, i.e. to make it look like a tie, then to vote No and to subsequently make sure the extra things the No vote promised are actually delivered. So I think:
No: 75%
Yes: 25%
Put another way, I think 75% of Scots are sensible and 25% aren’t. Which is probably a reasonable estimate for the English too.
I can see this re-opening the question of regional government. The Labour provision of regional assemblies in England seemed to enable this well, but didn’t get popular buy-in… are we returning to that. (Which would be good) or facing something more piecemeal, such as an English parliament, or an English parliament with assemblies for Cornwall and Yorkshire?
Having spent Wednesday on the streets of Edinburgh I think the ‘Yes’ campaign have won the ground war by a Royal Mile… and the ‘No’ campaign will win the vote by more than the pollsters predict.
Reasons? Much the same as Chris Rennard’s with the added factors that the warnings of economic meltdown if Scotland went independent will scare some voters back into the ‘No’ camp and there will also be a late swing in favour of the status quo (as happened in Quebec).
That said, I found it inspiring to see the Scottish public engaged in enthusiastic, passionate, well-informed and generally well-mannered debate on street corners and in cafes, pubs and other public spaces. Many of those taking part were people who wouldn’t normally be interested in politics at all.
The media may focus on the politicians but it’s the huge public interest and informed public debate that’s been truly inspirational in this campaign.
If the polls are accurate,
52% No
48% Yes
But I suspect the Yes vote is being exaggerated because it’s celeb heavy and it’s more appealing to British news outlets to make it seem tense. This is what happened before Obama was re-elected,. Lots of polls suggesting a close contest as election day drew near and a result that was pretty much a reflection of the earliest predictions. News is distorted by the desire to inflate story lines for “entertainment” value. It’s easy to forget that the SNP lost ground to Labour in recent local elections. So, even though I would vote Yes if I was a Scot, I’ll go with
60% to 65% No
35 % to 40% Yes.
No 58%
Yes 42%
Easy to be a clever-clogs, but I have always thought it would be something like 51% No and 49% Yes. The REAL issues, though (as many above have pointed out) will be trying to put England and Scotland back together in so many ways again plus, at the same time, the major constitutional changes which are now totally inevitable and which will revive the questions posed by Gladstone, Chamberlain etc back in the 1880s before the Conservatives under Salisbury began the process of smothering the whole issue (even, briefly, with regard to Ireland) with the blanket of imperialism for the next 70 – 80 years.
I think it will be No, but by a surprisingly small margin, and that it will go down to the wire on the count. That is because I believe there is always a collective “horse sense” to the outcomes of elections. Just as the Scots voted SNP in droves at the last Holyrood election to maximise their leverage on the rest of the UK, so they will very narrowly vote No this time, in order to achieve the same effect.
However, I think that this time, it might be a calculation that no longer works, because there are parties like UKIP that will call their bluff, as will many Tory back benchers.
Incidentally, I think there was also a collective “horse sense” of what voters wanted out of the 2010 Westminster election. Yes, they wanted the finances put right and the economy healed, but they did not want further right wing nonsense like privatisation and they did want any cuts to be made with the greatest prudence and care with regard to the most vulnerable in society. Clegg and the Orange Bookers totally misjudged the collective will on matters like this and we are now reaping the bitter harvest of their mistakes.
Hope I am wrong M
Yes 53
No 47
Doubt you register to vote for status qou
John Barrett’s reference to the collapse of phones4u is highly pertinent to a discussion about the reasons why yes has surprised many people ( myself included ) by its success. Here we have a company that has collapsed with the loss of 5000 jobs. Its venture capitalist owners had recently issued a £200 million bond (ie debt) which they had used as a dividend to tbemselves for being… um… well, for being, basically. Is it any wonder that people would turn away from a political system that enables and rewards behaviour like this?
Whichever way people in Scotland vote today, it’s great to know every single vote counts towards the outcome!
John Tilley
“Absolutely right — any Liberal Democrats who have invested time and money working for the NO side will not be thanked or spared by our political enemies in the days between now and May.”
Not only political ‘enemies’ but also the many floating voters who have supported us in General Elections and have decided to vote Yes in the referendum – this may particularly affect northern constituencies where we have held seats for many years.
When is the film being released
No one knows how this will turn out, but I hope it has taught national politicians that they need to think about the areas outside the Westminster – I nearly wrote Westmonster! Quite apt!! – village more.
The other quite startling impression is how few women have been fronting the campaign from the Better Together side. Says a lot!
YES 50.5%, NO 49.5%
YEs= 100 % , NO= 0%
John Tilley wrote:
” But his highly staged, made for TV , invitiation only, strictly choregraphed sound bites in front of a dozenor so Labour party members ”
Iwould imagine that it was by invitation only. You cannot have people wandering in off the street with a former prime minister in the room, especially after what happened to Ed Miliband in Edinburgh. Made for TV? Of course it was. People would never get to hear the speech if it hadn’t been. Are you saying that key speeches in election campaigns are only authentic if they’re not broadcast? Strictly choreographed soundbites? Wrong. Gordon Brown wasn’t using an autocue. He made mistakes. He said “cemetery” when he meant “war cemetery”. And there were others that I forget. David Cameron used an autocue in Aberdeen. Gordon Brown in Clydebank did not. In front of a dozen or so Labour Party members? I wasn’t aware that Caron Lindsay was a Labour Party member. I believe she was there? Your remaining comments would suggest that your familiarity with the working-class in Scotland is not that great.
flo clucas
You are no doubt thinking of the Fred Astaire song —
“You say Westminster, I say Westmonster. Let’s call the whole thing off.”
Sorry think polls have been too reliant on internet and phone (land line ) surveys so a whole section of previously disenfranchised voters have been omitted from the polls. I predict a 52% to 48% victory for Yes
Can I also add a warning if as predicted we have a narrow No victory and we get no powers or Labours 5% Income tax then hell mend them. New referendum, civil disobedience or UDI after a landslide SNP victory in 2016 all bets are off
No: 60%, Yes: 40%
Mark: I agree, if no narrowly wins, and Westminster dos not deliver on the pledge, it can get nasty.
Yes 44.7%
Some say the turnout will be over 100%, given the weight of postal voting 🙂
I would question what incentive Westminster has to deliver The Vow if Scotland votes No. The Tories have absolutely nothing to lose with only one Scottish MP and it would probably please some of their backbenchers if they were to renege. It would of course be a blow, possibly fatal, to Labour in next year’s GE on the other hand – Gordon Brown having persuaded, if he has, many Labour loyalists to change from Yes to No. And finally to us – defined by many in the electorate as one which reneges on electoral promises anyway… Perhaps Cameron has played more of a blinder than we thought him capable, and would probably even see off Boris and Nigel.
On the other hand, I’m hoping for a Yes!
Yes 48, No 51, spoilt papers 1. There, that’s different!
John Tilley, I love your comment!
Latest polls today, both say No 53 – 47. No seems to be drawing away in the last few days, might be as much as 54 46 at the end.
The end of this campaign has reminded me of the depressing 1992 General Election. The relentless scaremongering of the NO campaign has succeeded as did ‘Labour’s double whammy’ back then. I expect 54% no, but I’m hoping it’ll be closer.
Of course once the referendum has been wonthe talk of extra powers for Holyrood will be put on the back burner. Expect Prime & Deptuty Ministers to talk about the “need for a period of reflection” and a “wider debate with the whole of Britain” (Westminster speak for doing nothing!)
Steve Comer is right to point to similarities with 1992.
The feeling of ‘so near and yet so far’ can be deeply disappointing. I still hope that I am wrong and that the YES vote will win. But the YES campaign has been hit by every kitchen sink the London establishent can throw at it.
Virtually every newspaper (joined shamelessly by the supposedly neutral BBC) have done all they can for the NO side: I believe that will have an impact and boost the NO vote.
It really would be quite something if the voters of Scotland resisted all the pressure, all the threats implicit and explicit, all the gimmicks, all the celebrity appeals from people who have no obvious connection with Scotand.
If YES get a majority of one vote after such an avalanche of propaganda they will deserve independence.
Steve is right to suspect, “Of course once the referendum has been wonthe talk of extra powers for Holyrood will be put on the back burner. ” but that is actually a great ‘get out of gaol free card. Ending the coalition on a point of principal, our word, our commitment to greater devolution, greater power away from Westminster and Whitehall .
But he is also probably right to suspect we shall sell it for £10 when he goes on, “Expect Prime & Deptuty Ministers to talk about the “need for a period of reflection” and a “wider debate with the whole of Britain” (Westminster speak for doing nothing!)”
It would be time for the grass roots to impose their values on a leadership that had to borrow the values of Shirley Williams and Charrles Kennedy in its hour of need.
52.4% No 47.6% Yes
Serious question.
There’s bad weather around the Western Isles. If one of the fishing boats carrying a ballot box was sunk in a gale, would they have to rerun the whole referendum, or just the bit for the polling district concerned?
Interesting to see how prominent women have been in this campaign – but alas, not in this thread. Susan, Alison, Bridget and Ali much missed.
Wish I’d been able to put monry on the 54% no vote
Looksliketherediction
Well it looks like those of us whosaid 54% no got it right?
……listening to the Today programme it now seems the prediction I made in my post last night came true even before the lastvotes were counted. Back pedalling on the Devo Max promises from ‘Tory sources’ already!
Steve Comer, I have just watched Cameron in Downing St sayingbthat a Bill will be published in January, so there is no chance of legislation going through before the general election.
Lord Smith of Kelvin has been appointed and we can expect his report to reach us before the Chilcot Report (five years, ten million pounds and still counting).
But will he turn out to be Lord Smith Kelvin and The. Long Grass ???