A leaked copy of Labour’s internal June elections briefing document show just how limited Labour’s hopes for the elections are. In a slide listing “Labour priorities”, the party’s ambitions for the elections are given as:
- Maximise Labour vote in Euro election
- Stop BNP gaining Euro seat
- Hold 4 Labour County Councils
- North Tyneside and Doncaster Mayoral races
“Maximise vote” is telling as the alternatives would be “gain seats” or “hold seats”. “Maximise vote” is polite shorthand for “lose as few seats as possible”.
Whilst stopping the BNP would be on many party’s equivalent lists, for county councils Labour’s ambitions are also very limited: simply trying to hold the four councils it currently has. Even last year, Labour was aiming for some council gains.
John Harrison, the Labour North Tyneside Mayor, won by just 1,002 votes (1.1%) in 2005, whilst in Doncaster the Labour Mayor, Martin Winter, has been expelled following a split in Doncaster Labour Party.
An intriguing detail in the four county council contests highlighted by Labour is the degree to which the challenge to Labour in them comes from the Liberal Democrats. Although in all four (Derbyshire, Lancashire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire) the Conservatives have more seats than the Liberal Democrats, in the last round of elections it was the Liberal Democrat vote which increased across all four. In three of them the Conservative vote fell, whilst in the fourth (Derbyshire) the increase in the Conservative vote (+0.3%) was both small and less than the Liberal Democrat increase (+4%). The combination of county and general election on the same day last time most likely partly explains this relative performance, but it suggests that Labour is facing a tough fight on two fronts.
The leaked briefing goes on to explain in some detail the plans for central Labour operations to support their local campaigns. Efforts are being overwhelmingly concentrated on just the four county councils and two Mayor elections highlighted above, with 570,000 items of direct mail and 70,000 phone calls planned. These numbers are relatively small compared with past Labour operations, suggesting that the party’s financial troubles are hitting its ability to run campaigns. However, for any Liberal Democrat campaigning in those six areas it is worth bearing in mind the degree of extra campaigning which may be needed to compensate for even that reduced level of Labour campaigning.
5 Comments
With the opinion polls as they are plus the Lisbon Treaty referendum saga (that will no doubt be dug up by the Conservatives, UKIP and possibly the BNP), the Euro elections may prove to be the blackest day of Gordon Brown’s premiership thus far.
Maximising the vote is indeed a tacit admission of defeat before a single vote has been cast.
Let’s get serious.
Maximising the vote is a sine qua non. The other three objectives fall if we don’t do that. Clearly there are a reduced number of seats to win this time. Increasing seats is going to be tough for anyone. Reducing by a seat or two is likely for each of the biggest 3 or 4 parties to square that circle. But with the Tories in disarray over Euro gravy and having no coherent plan on Europe or UK plc, the Lib Dems likely to lose at least one “last seat” (NW) if not more, UKIP still likely to be a force against all the odds, Libertas, Jury Team, BNP, Green, Assorted Single Issues, it’s all to play for.
At least Chris Davies will not be able to roll out his loathsome communalist leaflets for Sajjad Karim. Which he could only defend by saying they were “true”.
PS Did McBride leak this? Is it actually leaked? Or just widely available?
Lab only won North Tyneside on redistributed second preference BNP votes last time
>Derbyshire, Lancashire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire
Three out of four are in the Midlands. I’m in one half a mile from another.
How will MP expenses play, if at all?
How will areas which have gone Independent (e.g., Mansfield) vote?
There’s also a Mayoral election in Hartlepool on June 4th:
http://www.hartlepool.gov.uk/downloads/Notice_Of_Election.doc
Not a priority for Labour…?