What would you think are the odds on the Liberal Democrats winning most seats in a general election?

Given that we have 18 MPs right now, you wouldn’t expect the odds on the Liberal Democrats being the biggest party in the House of Commons to be that good.

Maybe 100-1, maybe 50-1 at best.

Well, not so much.

Look here and you’ll see a range between 9-1 and 16-1.

That reflects the fact that we have left Bournemouth with a clear path ahead.

We know that our primary objective at the moment is to stop Brexit in order to make creating the more caring, more equal society that we want to see so much easier.

We are clear that if the Liberal Democrats win a majority at the next General Election before we have left the European Union, the very first thing that Jo Swinson will do if she enters Downing Street as Prime Minister, before she even puts the kettle on, will be to revoke Article 50.

The political earthquake that it would take for us to go from 18 seats to 326 would be more than sufficient mandate.

If we don’t win an overall majority, we would go for a people’s vote with a Brexit option and the option to Remain.

Over the last few days, Jo Swinson has shown herself to be a calm, capable, infectiously enthusiastic, likeable and determined leader, surrounded by a talented team.

She has been in the job for less than 2 months and already she tops the popularity ratings.

Jeremy Corbyn is on -49.

I can’t get my head round Boris Johnson being found favourable by 38% of people.

We leave Bournemouth with a clear statement of intent to stop Brexit and a leader at the top of her game.

Jo is absolutely serious about really going for it in an election. It’s not enough for her to win 50-70 seats and get back to where we were. She is determined to do with the SNP did in Scotland i and Trudeau did in Canada in 2015. Both parties had a strong and simple message and created a tidal wave of support which enabled them to win big under first past the post. Those parties are the evidence that it can be done and we should carry ourselves with confidence and believe that we can do it.

So, our almost 150,000 band of members and supporters needs to take to the streets, get knocking on doors and do all we can to bring about our best result in over a century.

We all have our part to play in saving our country from disaster and creating that inclusive, fair, kind society that we’ve all signed up to when we joined. It is within our grasp. Let’s go for it.


* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

Read more by or more about , , or .
This entry was posted in News.


  • John Marriott 18th Sep '19 - 9:33am

    If the Lib Dems insist on purity, pretty slim. If they become more of a broad church, you never know!

  • Richard Underhill 18th Sep '19 - 10:07am

    Bookies are in it form the money.
    If their books are balanced they are in profit after any outcome.
    Therefore their numbers tend to reflect the opinions of gamblers with money, namely Conservatives.
    Psephologists are not forecasters either. They do not issue psephisms. They operate on the basis of data they have previously collected. When they collected these data can be crucial. The role of canvassers is to achieve change. The next election must be a CHANGE ELECTION.
    The result of the hearing in the Supreme Court will come first, later this week.

  • Richard Underhill 18th Sep '19 - 10:08am

    Sorry, typo.
    Bookies are in it for the money.

  • Yes, bookies are in it for the money, but they are often better at calling the results than opinion polls!

  • See YouGov taken Monday and Tuesday have Revoke for leading against at 41% to 38%, Remainers in favour, Leavers against, now there is a surprise, but that is good news for us, just need to convince the 21% Don’t Knows!

  • The result of the next election will depend on a number of things, like what the other parties do. The one we can influence is what we do. The question is how we build up enthusiasm in the people who are supporting us.
    If we try to simply run the sort of national campaign the others run, we will be overwhelmed.
    Do we have the right structures to mobilise our members?
    And when are we going to start putting out a positive message about why we should be in the EU. And that means answering the question – how does the EU really work?
    And then how to get the message out there? This is where the inventiveness of our members comes in.

  • Roger Roberts 19th Sep '19 - 9:11am

    Roger Roberts Clearly there could be an earthquake of a change at the coming General Election. Lib Dem policies are not only wise on Europe and Climate change especially. In every constituency we look as if we’ll have results beyond our expectations, we must continue as not only a party but also the Lib Dem family – the long serving members welcoming thousands of new arrivals .Let’s make the most of past experience blending with those newer activists but remembering that our Lib Dem family, like any ordinary family, is at its strongest when we laugh and smile together ! No one has all the right answers but we all have some. and finally YES WE CAN !

  • I knew that a couple of weeks ago it was 20/1 because I put a tenner on it. Should have done it a month or so earlier when it was higher. Amazed it’s down to 14/1 already.

  • “just need to convince the 21% Don’t Knows!”

    And we can convince those in different ways, not necessarily by having to convince them of remaining in the EU. Many of the “Don’t Knows” are those who are normally disengaged from politics, are neither a Leaver nor a Remainer, and many of them are completely fed up of the dominance that Brexit is having over everything else.
    One message to them could be “Had enough of Brexit? Vote Lib Dem and we will stop Brexit, immediately”.
    If we can reach that sector with that simple message, it’s a significant percentage of the population.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?


Recent Comments

    No recent comment found.