Where Ukip won (or almost won) on 2nd May 2013

Wondering where Ukip won (or almost won – see below) in the local elections on Thursday, 2nd May? Then here’s a handy graphic and breakdown by constituency…

ukip vote may 2013

My thanks to Lib Dem Ben Mathis (@binny_uk) for crunching the Ukip numbers, as below. We’ll update the list with any more found…

LINCOLNSHIRE

Boston & Skegness
Con ~8000
UKIP ~10,000
Labour ~4000
Independents ~3000

There were no Lib Dem candidates. In one division partly in the seat, Ukip did not stand.

South Holland & The Deepings
Con ~8050
UKIP ~7050
Lab ~2550
Ind ~4300

One and a half divisions (The Deepings) had no Ukip candidates, so essentially a dead heat.

KENT

Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Con ~7300
UKIP ~9600
LD ~1000
Lab ~6200

North Thanet
Con ~7100
UKIP ~8700
LD ~1250
Lab ~5000

Folkestone & Hythe
Con ~10,100
UKIP ~9200
LD ~2800
Lab ~3700

The Greens also polled over 2000 votes and won Hythe division (traditionally Tory) Where these votes would go in a general is an open question.

WEST SUSSEX

Worthing East & Shoreham
Con 7136
UKIP 7386
LD 2276
Lab 3130

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Con 6111
UKIP 7766
LD 4340
Lab 2457

ESSEX
Castle Point
Con 6404
UKIP 6466
LD 316
Lab 2574
Independents 2962

Most Canvey Island Independent voters are white working-class small-c conservatives, who mostly vote Tory in general elections but would probably back Ukip if they were challenging for the seat. Virtually a dead heat between the Conservatives and Ukip on May 2nd.

Rayleigh & Wickford
Con 7936
UKIP 6719
LD 2141
Lab 2169

Another seat closer than it looks. Ukip’s vote in Rayleigh North was hit by an English Democrat standing and polling 660. In Rochford West a Green candidate won with 1615 votes. As in Hythe, these are unlikely to transfer to a Green parliamentary candidate.

The neighbouring seat of Basildon South & East Thurrock could be interesting, but as most of it is within Thurrock unitary authority, only two wards were contested this time round.

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE

Aylesbury

Con – 4998
UKIP – 6783
Lib Dem – 4454
Labour – 2573

Maybe evidence of the “HS2 Effect”?

Finally in GLOUCESTERSHIRE

Forest of Dean
Con 7187
UKIP 6247
LD 1742
Lab 5699
Green 970
Independents 3055

With the Independents strong and one division where Ukip didn’t stand, that could go any one of three ways!

All of which chimes with Lord Ashcroft’s polling from last December, as analysed by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report here (and still relevant 6 months’ later):

… UKIP support is not particularly connected with Europe, it is an anti-immigration vote and protest vote against some aspects of modern Britain, a general reactionary vote in support of taking Britain back to a status quo ante.

Or, as I characterised Ukip’s USP here: ‘stop-the-world-I-want-to-get-off-pull-up-the-drawbridge-nothing-against-them-personally-but-we’re-full-and-another-thing-health-and-safety-some-of-my-best-friends-are–all-the-parties-are-the-same-I’d-emigrate-if-I-could’.

And as for the future, here’s Anthony Wells again:

The fact that UKIP support is not primarily driven by attitudes to Europe suggests that a referendum on EU membership is not the sort of elixir that some people seem to consider it to be. That’s not to say it wouldn’t shift votes, or appeal to people with the sort of values that lead them to support UKIP… just don’t expect it to magically lure all those votes back to the Conservatives overnight. More pertinent is the degree to which UKIP sympathisers who prefer Cameron and the Conservatives to Miliband and Labour will end up returning to the Conservatives once an actual election arrives, and the degree to which UKIP has replaced the Liberal Democrats as a vehicle for mid-term protest votes from people unhappy with both the government and the opposition. Right now there is no good way of measuring that.

* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.

Read more by or more about , , or .
This entry was posted in News.
Advert

17 Comments

  • David Wilkinson 14th May '13 - 8:28am

    The Forest of Dean, a really weird place and now they voting UKIP

  • “They won 4 wards in Buckinghamshire, and unsurprisingly they were 4 wards exactly on the route of HS2.”

    Time to bring the Vogons into Aylesbury?! 😉

  • A Social Liberal 14th May '13 - 8:22pm

    Is there anywhere centrally I can get the ward by ward figures for the county council elections?

  • @Social Liberal
    The count is by electoral division for county seats. A link to Individual division numbers are (or should be ) available from the County Council website

  • Peter Chivall 15th May '13 - 12:33pm

    The Aylesbury result is interesting in 2 ways – if UKIP benefitted from the anti-HS2 vote it shows that nobody reads manifestos – UKIP want THREE High Speed lines to the North? Otherwise credit to the LDs in that area for a strong combined vote compared to some of our disappointments elsewhere.
    BTW who won the County seats in Eastleigh?

  • Clive Sneddon 15th May '13 - 1:09pm

    Thanks Stephen for drawing this information together. Taken as a whole, your figures suggest to me that UKIP did well in areas historically strongly Tory where no other party had established itself as a credible challenger for first place. Certainly Lib Dem support is weak in most of these seats, with possible exceptions in HS2-land and West Sussex, and only in Kent and the Forest of Dean does Labour get to 5000 or more. Europe may yet have a role to play, though, in that UKIP did particularly well (which is also clear from the Guardian’s mapping of UKIP seats) in those counties east of the Greenwich meridian which geographically qualify for Central European Time. Scope here for a concerted campaign to persuade voters of the benefits of maintaining close trading and social links with the neighbours, extending to migration, which, as for the UK as a whole, is almost certainly two-way?

  • Benjamin Mathis 15th May '13 - 3:53pm

    I hate to poo-poo a fun-sounding suggestion, Clive, but time zones are (theoretically at least) 15 degree segments CENTRED on the Greenwich Meridian. Theoretical GMT therefore would cover the area from 7.5W to 7.5E. Far from Eastern parts of England “belonging” in CET, actually, the Eastern boundary of theoretical GMT runs almost perfectly along the German border.

    France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland and all but the Westernmost parts of Spain and Portugal (which are actually in GMT-1) ought to take their time from London!

    Tim Prater – I included a percentage – off the top of my head I can’t remember exactly what figure – of the vote in Ashford Rural E and S. As you say, I have no access to box counts so the figures for split divisions are necessarily approximate.

    In general, I think what we may be seeing is UKIP filling a niche in relation to the Tories as the BNP did for a while in relation to Labour. Note, I am NOT entering into a comparison between the two parties’ policies or candidates, just where they sit in the political “ecosystem.”

    For a few years in the early/mid 2000s, the BNP thrived in areas where Labour traditionally predominated, maybe became complacent and where people – especially in lower income and social groups – felt ignored. Crucially, they did well in areas where there was little or no active opposition activity except the BNP. Oldham, Burnley and Barking were not just perpetually Labour, but there was little Lib Dem, Tory or Green activity.

    Now we are seeing UKIP perform a similar role in hegemonic Tory councils. UKIP did little or nothing in areas where there was an active opposition from Labour or from us, but in counties and parts of counties where the Conservatives usually walk it with no significant challenge, they won multiple seats.

  • @Benjamin Mathis

    “Now we are seeing UKIP perform a similar role in hegemonic Tory councils. UKIP did little or nothing in areas where there was an active opposition from Labour or from us, but in counties and parts of counties where the Conservatives usually walk it with no significant challenge, they won multiple seats.”

    Surely that’s only partially true though? In Devon UKIP won a seat from the Lib Dems with 33% of the vote, previously the LDP won the seat with 50% (2009). Devon as a whole has a lot of seats where Lib Dems were hitting 20%+ in seats in 2009 (in fact I think there were only about 9 seats where their vote share was less than 20%), plus of course there were other parties competing in many of the seats (e.g. Greens, Labour, Ind). UKIP contested 33 seats in 2009, in 2013 they competed in 32 of these seats (as well as a lot of new seats obviously), they increased there vote share in all but 2 of those and actually increased their actual vote in 20 and won 4 seats. One of those I’ve mentioned already, but the remaining 3 also had multiple parties competing (both in 2009 and 2013), in fact these were all seats where Lib Dems took over 20%+ of the vote.

    If anything, in Devon UKIP seem to have done well because of the collapse in the LD vote (rather than just taking votes from the CP), if the vote hadn’t collapsed then there is a good chance that many seats would have gone to the LDP.

  • Benjamin Mathis wrote:-

    “Now we are seeing UKIP perform a similar role in hegemonic Tory councils.”

    Really? In Worthing, Adur and Shepway, where the Lib Dems once had outright control? In Swale and Rochford, where the Lib Dems were once the largest party? In Thanet, which was briefly controlled by Labour in the early Blair years?

    These are areas where the LibDems have very conspicuously failed. Adur evaporated. Worthing sank, but not without trace. In Shepway, Lib Dems fought each other instead of their opponents. In Swale and Rochford, the party likewise vanished. In Thanet, the Lib Dem presence has always been invisible, despite the obvious potential supplied by decades of Tory neglect.

    Immigration is only part of it. True, in Kent there is a widespread antipathy towards people from across the Channel. It used to be the French, who took to the ferries and annoyed the locals. It’s now East Europeans, who’ve flocked into the county to accept the starvation wages offered by the fruit and hop agri-businesses. But if it’s just down to dislike of foreigners, why did the National Front and the BNP never get anywhere in Kent? There has to be something more than that, something to do with the very justified feeling that these areas have been left behind. Walk through Guildford or Newbury and you get the feeling that these towns are booming. Folkestone and Margate don’t have quite the same “buzz”.

    In the 1980s, the Liberal/SDP Alliance was the biggest party in Gillingham, Maidstone, Shepway, Swale and Tonbridge & Malling, with Canterbury and Tunbridge Wells following along a few years later. With the notable exception of Maidstone, and possibly also Canterbury, all that has vanished. Why has Kent been such a disaster area for the party? These are questions we need answered if we’re to survive as a party.

    I’m not going to pontificate about Devon, because I know very little about Devon. Only to say that the coastal sprawl from Seaton along to Dartmouth failed to shift to UKIP in the way that the Kent and Sussex coasts did. But it was still a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, with or without UKIP.

    So what’s the answer? (1) Get out of this wretched, wretched coalition, and (2) start offering real solutions to these forgottenlands that have been so effortlessly seduced by the outside right.

  • Richard Underhill 16th May '13 - 2:52pm

    All the Home Counties except Buckinghamshire benefited when the Conservatives under John Major were divided over Europe. Could that happenn again?

    In Tunbridge Wells there was vigorous campaigning and achievement for the Pembury bypass.

    In 1997, 2001 and 2005 there were general elections on the same day as the county elections, which increased the turnout substantially. In 2009 there were euro-elections. The Medway towns have become unitary and taken out of Kent County council which reduced the perceptions of likelihood of breaking Tory control.

  • David White 17th May '13 - 1:38pm

    I doubt that either we LDs or the OldCons need have nervous breakdowns about the Frightful Farage and his contemptible chums.

    Unless my less than profound research is wrong, UKIP lost council seats which they already had in both Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire. Does this not suggest that the Farageists are useless when the electorate is so misguided as to give UKIP any power?

  • R Uduwerage-Perera 20th May '13 - 9:22am

    “I doubt that either we LDs or the OldCons need have nervous breakdowns about the Frightful Farage and his contemptible chums.”

    As a student of history, specifically the period known as the Holocaust, a Criminologist and someone than works within the equalities arena as an advocate for victims of discrimination I am horrified by the growth of Ukip and the apparent lacklustre of our Party to expose the Far Right and its odious agenda.

    If we do not demonstrate to the public, and specifically the minority ethnic communities that we will not tolerate intolerance and the hate filled and racist diatribe of Ukip and similar groups, then what exactly do we have to offer these communities, and why should they vote for us?

    Ruwan Uduwerage-Perera
    English Party Diversity Champion
    Ethnic Minority Liberal Democrats – Vice Chair

    (El-Hajj Malik El-Shabazz – “I am not a racist. I am against every form of racism and segregation, every form of discrimination. I believe in human beings, and that all human beings should be respected as such, regardless of their color.”)

  • Simon Banks 5th Jun '13 - 8:14pm

    Benjamin: this is not entirely true. In Brightlingsea, a Tory-held division in Essex which had been Lib Dem in the past and was a target seat for us this time, we had strength at more local levels, had run strong campaigns on local issues and had a well-established candidate who was a district councillor. He beat the Tory but narrowly lost to UKIP who therefore took the seat.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User Avatarjoeb 21st Nov - 1:34am
    Katharine, housing costs are a critical element. With housing benefit frozen at 2011 levels and rents having risen 30% it is virtually impossible to cover...
  • User AvatarMatt (bristol) 20th Nov - 11:48pm
    Speaking of details, and unnecessarily complicating my point with multiple subclauses, I object entirely to this post based on the contention that it has omitted...
  • User AvatarLorenzo Cherin 20th Nov - 11:34pm
    Why these horrible things happen who can even imagine, people victims of hatefulness, innocent of ever hurting, typical of those who so often are targeted,...
  • User AvatarMartin 20th Nov - 11:24pm
    I hope that Vince and others in the leadership are looking at what can positive action can be achieved to promote the representation and input...
  • User AvatarSue Sutherland 20th Nov - 10:50pm
    The lack of an emoji button is very frustrating.
  • User AvatarDavid Raw 20th Nov - 10:42pm
    This has been a very worthwhile exercise, Katharine. Obviously there are lots of ideas (and just as important) a recognition that something should be done....