Two polls in the Scottish independence referendum debate were published last night. The one that’s (understandably) getting all the attention is YouGov’s showing a wafer-thin Yes lead, 51% to 49%. It’s only the second poll to have found a pro-independence majority (the previous one was over a year ago). The other poll, commissioned by the SNP, continues to show No in the lead, 48% to 44%.
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times has a good summary of the factors that will likely decide the outcome in the final 10 days’ campaigning:
Factors that could favour a Yes vote
Momentum. The change in mood of the past four weeks may prove infectious, with more voters being swayed by the excitement and optimism of a surge in Yes support and wanting to go with the flow. Superior campaigning. Yes Scotland is not only seen as more positive, it is also winning the ground war. Our poll finds that it has delivered more leaflets, put up more posters, set up more local stalls and sent more emails than Better Together. Women continuing to lose their fears of independence. The gender gap has narrowed, but not disappeared. If men don’t start swing back to No, any further shift to Yes by Scotland’s women will guarantee victory for Salmond. Factors that could favour a No vote
Turnout. Our poll points to a high turnout among voters of all ages. But experience tells us that the over 60s usually vote in larger numbers than any other group, and they still divide 62%-38% in favour of No. Return of the fear factor. Until last week, a Yes victory looked unlikely. Now it is on the cards, the warnings from those opposed to independence will gain a fresh urgency and may make a bigger impact. The Quebec precedent. In 1995 Quebec voted on whether to secede from Canada. With a month to go, No held a steady lead. Then the mood changed. The final polls pointed to a 53-47% victory for Yes. But on the day, some voters pulled back from the brink, and Quebec voted to remain part of Canada by 50.6% to 49.4%.
Kellner also looks at the implications for next May’s general election if the voters of Scotland do vote Yes. Here’s his best-guess forecast of what the result would be according to current polls:
-
Labour 316 seats
Conservative 280
Lib Dem 27
Others 27
As he notes, “That would leave Labour just ten seats short of an overall majority, and with the option of going into coalition with the Lib Dems, or running a minority government on its own.”
And what happens if Scotland were to secede? Something like this, he estimates:
-
Conservative 278
Labour 274
Lib Dem 18
Others 21
Bit of a turnaround. It’s enough to make you wonder whether Andy Burnham and the Labour party are regretting scaremongering (inaccurately) about NHS privatisation quite so much.
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
Follow @libdemvoice.org on Bluesky
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
High Fell leaflet watch (2)
No, Leave didn't win the Brexit referendum because of Northern working class voters
Two new Makerfield by-election polls gives Burnham 5 and 12 point leads
Reform under water
Geoffrey Payne
Richard Whelan
David Raw
Tom Reeve
39 Comments
Am I missing something? The 2015 election will encompass Scottish constituencies irrespective of result of independence vote so I can’t see why there will be fewer MPs. The Yes/No referendum is only the first step and negotiations between Westminster and Holyrood would only follow after a Yes vote (assuming Westminster acknowledges the result rather than deciding to ignore it).
It will be very difficult to hold a General Election including Scotland if the first job of the parliament is to complete the move to Independence by March 2016. Then what another General Election without Scotland a year later. probably be best to postpone everything till May 2016 and start afresh.
Surprised if Peter Kellner thinks the Lib. Dems. will still win 9 seats in Scotland next May. Unlike him to be so positive about our prospects!
Linda – Presumably the 27 Lib Dem MPs is what Peter Kellner predicts the party will return in May next year at the General Election and the reduction of 9 to 18 is what will result from the 9 remaining Scottish Lib-Dem MPs leaving Westminster in 2016, the date Scotland would actually leave the UK following a Yes vote.
It does look like it will be a very close vote and a number of Scottish Liberal Democrats have contacted me to say they are voting Yes on the 18th.
If there is a Yes vote, the Federal Conference in Glasgow will be much more interesting than usual.
Linda
You are correct but the likely political blow back for any parties who tried to back- peddle after a YES vote would be considerable.
Ireland took a few decades to work through the practicalities of cutting the apron strings. They kept the pound until the 1970s. Apparently that was not a problem. Independence has undoubtedly improved the position of people in Ireland, nobody now would suggest a return to rule from London. Same will go for Scotland when a majority vote YES. As I sincerely hope they will especially after seeing Osbourne on the Marr show this morning saying that the existing devolution arrangements were perfectly satisfactory and then realising he had forgotten his script which was that in a few days the unionist parties will announce a deathbed conversion to devomax. 🙂
The 2015 GE result will include Scottish seats….independence isn’t declared on the 18th September and both he and you should know that
After the referendum is a significant period of negotiation and no-one knows what this will mean for Independence, or whether it will actually happen
Labour are clearly the biggest Unionist Party in Scotland but it is quite difficult for them to sell a positive message on the Union when the Tories are in Government with your support. The Yes campaign seems to figure mainly the description of Coalition Government policies and I doubt Danny Alexander is helping convince many Scots to stay in the Union
Can I also just remind you that Labour are not in power anywhere in the UK so this continuous blaming of them for the situation with Scotland gets a little tedious – Cameron is PM but it doesn’t help the BT campaign if neither he or the DPM can go to Scotland and say anything at all. Their presence is negative; leading Labour to plough a sole furrow but who are as equally opposed to current UK Government policy as the Scots are
Finally, we see this piece about border guards this morning. I would say to the Scots (I know a fair few planning to vote for Independence) that opting to leave will change the relationship built over hundreds of years. If you vote to go then there will be a reaction from the English and it could get acrimonious – I can see some very petty acts coming into play over the next few years from both side and I do not see the split as being very friendly.
Personally, I am happy for the Scottish to leave the Union if they want to – my feelings this will be an outcome of the broken UK system which none of the parties have managed to fix.
I do, however, think that in the event of a Yes vote that some Scots who voted for it will have a bit of a shock as to what it will mean in reality; and Salmond had better do a good job of managing the transition. Once the vote is done then I don’t think there will be anything to stop it happening, and I think a lot of push for that will come from the English
For those who want an interesting view on the subject, it is worth reading Simon Jenkins’ article on independence in the Guardian of 4th September, where he explains why he would vote No if given the vote in England and why he would vote Yes if he lived in Scotland.
I have already voted Yes by postal vote and having been contacted by a number of Liberal Democrat members in Scotland who are also voting Yes, it will be important for the party, north and south of the border, to work out how it moves forward and works together in the event of a Yes vote on the 18th September
Some liberal advice for Better Together:
1. Stop banging on about the currency, but still mention it.
2. Ignore calls to engage in a purely positive campaign. Fairness for the rest of the UK matters too.
3. Stop banging on about more powers without delivering them.
4. Respect Yes voters. Show me a voter and I’ll show you a nationalist, unless you are on the far left.
5. Use the Farage argument that Salmond isn’t offering independence. Is taking powers from Westminster and handing them to Brussels and Berlin really making Scotland more independent?
Regards
There are apparently some stupid Tory MPs who want to bar Scots voting in next year’s GE if it’s a Yes. There’s a way to add another 1000 vote to the Yes column. Are NO trying to lose?
FrankBooth
This is just the start of what I said would happen if the Scots do vote Yes – there will be lots of comments like this and not just coming from a few, mad Tories (is this a tautology lol?)
The problem is that the No vote often depends on these type of things…this one is a bit silly, but border controls, currency, debt, who has the pretty pictures rom the National Gallery etc will all need discussing.
If Yes voters think the transition will be easy then I think they will be in for a bit of a shock. Need to use head not heart for this decision and being swayed by rhetoric is not the way to go. If they vote Yes good luck to them but I will expect the UK Government to do them no favours…fair yes but no stuffing of their mouths with silver
The historic analysis is unnerving. Over 90 years ago it was a Conservative Liberal peace time coalition that delivered independence to Southern Ireland. Today it is a Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition delivering independence to Scotland.
If YES wins by a narrow margin , can Alex Salmond carry this tiny majority through the Anglo Scottish Treaty negotiations as the settled will of the people of Scotland.Even if the turnout is 80% on referendum day, he will only speak for 2out of 5 of the people of Scotland. Nationalist fervour maybe shortlived. In England the mood will be much darker. Narrow , nasty English nationalism masquerading as Unionism with UKIP exploiting every concession to Scotland in the Treaty negotiations.
If it is YES, the political landscape in England will be changed beyond anything that current opinion polls forecast.
Gwyn
Sadly, I think you may be right
It would be a shame but I do not think we will see the best of ourselves after this election – I am now expecting a Yes to be honest because emotion is swaying some waverers. If people are waiting so late to make their decision I think your may find that they will be difficult to keep throughout the process
No is a temporary decision (there can always be another vote) but Yes will be permanent
I hope I am wrong but…….
Lets remember that in the only other Referendum of recent times, the vote on AV; only ICM called it right & Yougov were the most wrong. There is also the survey by The Scottish Social Survey which uses more in-depth methods & found much lower levels of Yes support. Its possible that No supporters, like Libdem voters are keeping their heads down.
PS does anyone know if there are any plans for Exit Polls ?
There’s a surprise – according to Stephen Tall it’s all Labour’s fault, again !
Seriously, this site since 2010 has become rather like ConHome & for LD voters past & present, it’s tiresome to be continually subjected to the trotting out of the Tory lines.
@ Stuart Moran – “Personally, I am happy for the Scottish to leave the Union if they want to – my feelings this will be an outcome of the broken UK system which none of the parties have managed to fix.”
Agreed, and the key phrase in there is “if they want to”.
I am a Unionist, I firmly believe that Britain will achieve more together, and personally wish for a no Vote as these are people I consider my ‘family’.
However, relationships are a two way business, and i’ll be the first to wave goodbye if that sentiment is not returned.
From my point of view I don’t want the right in Britain to hide, the Scots need to look at Britain warts and all (as they might see it), when they are making this choice.
“I offer you my solemn vow to be your faithful partner in sickness and in health, in good times and in bad, and in joy as well as in sorrow. I promise to love you unconditionally, to support you in your goals, to honor and respect you, to laugh with you and cry with you, and to cherish you for as long as we both shall live.”
Take it or leave it.
I think the offer today for more power in event of a no vote is likely more to influence people to vote yes
The main parties making this offer are likely to turn more people to vote UKIP as it seems like a bribe
If the majority of voters resident in Scotland vote for Independence now I can’t see why they would expect to elect MPs to Westminster in May.
If the vote goes Yes (and I’m fairly relaxed about that) the UK Govt and the Scottish Govt should get on with negotiations and we should elect both the new rUK Govt and the new Scottish Govt in May.
Many Lib Dems left the party because they hated the Conservatives more than they loved the Lib Dems.
Many Scots will vote to leave the UK because they hate the Conservatives more than they love Scotland.
Liberal Neil
There is absolutely no way that the negotiations will be complete before May – in fact we may see very little as the Government will possibly change.
How will these negotiations be done? I have no idea as no-one has bothered to tell us……..
Until Independence is official then the Scots still send MPs to Parliament – what they are allowed to vote on is another question and what happens if they hold the balance of power….again no-one knows
I think the timing of the referendum is not great; just before a GE………
The reference to the Quebec experience persuades me that the odds are still on a narrow NO win. I think the most difficult outcome for Scotland would be an overwhelming NO or a wafer thin YES, though if it is the latter, I would hope that politicians on both sides of the border would be able to negotiate a new looser UK that contains an independent Scotland, which happens to be what I would really like to see.
I do not think that Kellner is correctly reading the impact of the referendum on the vote in 2015. A NO vote will produce an extensive rebound effect against the NO parties in Scotland; by contrast a YES will set a high tide for Scottish Nationalist support and the eventual emergence of a party that to represent Scottish conservatism.
A more difficult prognosis would be the effects on UK Conservatives. I think a YES vote would be enormously destabilising for all parties, but particularly Cameron and his closest ministers. As for Lib Dems, we are in a tricky position anyway, but I feel that in terms of party political advantage that, due to the impact in Scotland and the general destabilisation in the UK, a NO will be worse for us than a YES.
Just a quick point on an earlier comment : Ireland did not use the pound until the 70’s. They always had their own currency (the Punt) which was pegged at 1:1 with sterling for many years and the coins and banknotes of the two currencies were used interchangeably. When Ireland joinex the ERM in 1979 the punt floated versus sterling and drifted down a way. Oddly enough many shopkeepers in my home town of Derry used to advertise “punt=pound” as a great motivation for shoppers from The South to make the short journey across the border. It would be interesting to watch the cross-border consumer dynamics that would develop if Scotland were to secede from the union. Unless of course Ed Miliband’s talk of checkpoints and passports proves true!
David Evershed – I think you are wrong. Many Lib Dems left the party because they hated Nick Clegg’s actions more than they loved the Lib Dems. We need them to return.
Paul in Wokingham,
Thanks for clarification on Ireland. But is the conclusion not the same? That Scotland could have its own bank notes ( as they already do) and peg their Sterling to the UK pound? Or am I missing something?
John Tilley
Indeed they could but they would be responsible for protecting that exchange rate. If those (wonderful and all-knowing) ‘markets’ decide the peg is unsustainable for whatever reason then we could see a repeat of Black Wednesday. The Scottish Central Reserve would have to then defend the currency through interest rises or be forced to come off the standard and devalue
This is up to the Scots to see if they want to do it.
Currency Union is far different and would lead both sides of the union to be liable for any problems – more akin to the Euro. It will have to be agreed by both sides and in the event of a Yes followed by a UK referendum on accepting currency union I would vote a definite No in the interests of my own country – which take precedence over the wishes of a foreign country I am afraid. Even one which I like and respect
Interesting report in The Scotsman —
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-a-focus-on-dundee-s-voters-1-3533772
stuart moran 7th Sep ’14 – 3:23pm
Thanks for that. I remember Black Wednesday — Norman Lamont was my MP, his assistant was a young David Cameron. But that was the UK government so the markets could do the same to a UK pound?
None of which would worry many of the people in Dundee reported on in The Scotsman. Link In previous comment from me.
John Tilley
Under currency union it is the same risk to the UK pound as now, but the control of the BoE over what happens in part of the Sterling Area would be negligible which is why no-one in the UK wants it. The price would be signing off Scotland’s accounts and regulatory control of the banks.
The UK pound as it exists now would continue to exist post-independence
The other option is just a peg and doesn’t affect the UK ata ll – it would be Scotland to deal with issues if they have issues with an economy too hot or too cold
In the end you can argue that the UK economy is so unbalanced anyway that there would not be much difference, especially to those you have described in Dundee. The fact remains though that Currency Union is not currently on the table and there does not seem to be a Plan B. Currency Union would also affect the rest of the UK – and I do not want it anymore that I would want the Euro.
Monetary Union is not possible without some sort of fiscal union – the Euro shows us that and we should learn its esson
Like so much of this debate though is that we have no idea what Independence actually means for them or for us – it is a leap of faith.
If the referendum does say Yes on 18th then I see no prospect in it being stopped and Gwynn’s comment above may be close to describing the aftermath
stuart moran is spot on when he says:
“If you vote to go then there will be a reaction from the English and it could get acrimonious”
As is Gwyn Williams who says :
“If it is YES, the political landscape in England will be changed beyond anything that current opinion polls forecast.”
The debate from the Salmond side has up to now been like an adolescent that leaves home and demands his independence, but screams ‘foul’, when dad refuses to let him borrow the family car, refuses to bail out his financial problems, and tells him straight that if he really wants to stand on his own two feet, to stop bringing his washing home for mum to do?
I actually hope they do vote yes for independence. Then the *real fun* begins. The English (like dad in the above analogy), will NOT accept a half hearted, half baked idea of independence. If they vote for independence, then *independence it is* !
The very first thing I would demand from the country of Scotland, is a split bill on our EU contribution. Scotland is approximately 9% of the whole UK.
So our annual EU contribution (£19.6 billion), needs to be split (9% / 91%)
So two EU bills ?
Scotland ……………. owes £1.76 billion
UK …………………. owes £ 17.84 billion
If they want independence, then Salmond must stop being an adolescent, grow up, and let’s all start as we mean to go on?
By the time the No campaign has finished, so many powers will have been promised to Scotland that there’ll be no difference at all between voting Yes and voting No.
@JohnTilley – absolutely. Your basic point is correct.
I haven’t been following the currency debate so it isn’t clear to me how well debated the options are. However the key point about Black Wednesday was that Soros saw Sterling’s ERM range as mispriced relative to the DMark and took advantage of this situation. The blame for that lies with Norman Lamont. It would be incumbent on the new Central Bank Of Scotland to ensure that their peg was based on a sound monetary footing. But pegs are found quite widely. For example 3 small EU countries are pegged to the euro, although the Swiss have struggled to maintain their euro peg at €1.20 in the face of the crises that the Eurozone lurches into on a regular basis.
It has been pointed out that a Yes vote only starts a period of (possibly difficult) negoiations. What has not been said is that those negoiations have to lead to at least one Act of Parliament – this Act gives independence legal standing both in respect of rUK, and also internationally. If the vote is very close, and depending upon the composition of the Commons after the May 2015 election, these legal requirements could face great difficulties in being enacted. And that does not take account of what the Lords might do.
The blunt fact is that the Lib Dems and Conservatives have virtually no representation in Scotland and would be well advised to ask themselves why. An acrimonious split will come from the butt hurt English parliament and its pet press throwing a “we’ve been spurned by the beastly haggis eating Scots” tantrum.
I suspected the coalition would be bad for the Lib Dems but I didn’t think the Tories would be that unpopular they actually might manage to break up the UK. If Scotland vote “yes” this and little else will be what puts Cameron and Clegg in the history books
Gwyn Williams – ‘In England the mood will be much darker. Narrow , nasty English nationalism masquerading as Unionism with UKIP exploiting every concession to Scotland in the Treaty negotiations.’
Kind of. There has been a staggering amount of talkboard ranting about this – in Yugoslavia they managed all this in the middle of a civil war! And personally I’m relaxed about YES or NO. But then why exactly should the mood not be darker? Why should the rUK seeking the best deal possible be regarded as, ‘nasty English nationalism?’ Most obviously it is well within the rights of the rUK not to agree to a currency union without some pretty serious political union (and perhaps a referendum).
Don’t get me wrong here, I’m not naïve and I realise that there may well be some unpalatable nationalism around. But politicians are elected to seek the better deal for those that elect them, a YES vote would be a vote to leave the institutions of the UK – that’s what independence means. Those institutions would not be there for the interest of Independent Scotland. If UKIP (or anyone else for that matter) wants to make an issue out of what the feel to be an unnecessarily generous deal then that’s democracy. What I make of such arguments is another matter. Frankly Scotland’s relationship with the EU, in my view, will probably be rather harder – Schengen in particular, but no one seems to want to talk about that.
I’d like to think that voters can separate jingoism from a hard-headed view of splitting the UK, should the scenario arise. Have more faith in the public at large, but at least don’t conflate being hard-headed with the worst of nationalism.
@stuart moran – I had assumed that the referendum had been timed for this Autumn exactly because it would allow for the new governments to be elected in May 2015.
Negotiations will last as long as the deadline allows. If the coalition agreement could be negotiated in a week, independence can be negotiated in six months.
And there is a serious risk that a GE across the UK could create an outcome which is different to what would happen once Scots MPs went. That could get very messy.
Martin
“I would hope that politicians on both sides of the border would be able to negotiate a new looser UK that contains an independent Scotland”
A country is either independent or not. If the UK were to still include Scotland post a yes vote that would be opposed to the expressed will of the electorate, not acceptable.
If the terms are very loose the SNP will blame every problem on “the English” and claim credit for every success.
In the event of a no vote the only sensible option is a properly federalised UK, but politicians find giving up power so hard.
Psi:
This is clearly nonsense. All countries are interdependent to various degrees, working together, pooling sovereignity if you want to put it that way in their common interests. Naturally Scotland and the remainder of the UK would have plenty of common interests, as does the UK with Ireland, as do all members of the EU.
I see no reason why a future UK might not contain a Scotland that has a status an independent country.
Martin
The UK is a state and interacts with other states on that basis, if Scotland becoes independent it becomes a seperate state. It is either a seperates state. Ir it is not. The devolution of powers within states is not the seperation of them.
If you struggle with that concept then you will be unable to engage at all in discussions on this topic.
If the refurendum being offered to the people of Scotland is not. To become a seperate state then they have been mislead.
I suspect that the Scots, if they do vote Yes will be voting as much against the Westminster/ Whitehall machine as they are against union with England. Yes or No, it’s time the people of England started to take on the overwheening and essentially incompetent Westminster/ Whitehall governing elite. Liberal Democrats could have been taking the lead in this and helping English radicals find their voice but the way we have played the Coalition has been to identify with the most inhumane, ignorant and selfish Tory Government since before 1900.
Clegg is starting to turn his tanker around, starting with the Bedroom Tax vote but I suspect even more moves like this will be discounted by the electorate and be too late to save him and the majority of our MPs next May.
A clear commitment to an English Parliament elected on a PR basis and established somehwere North of Grantham with a rump UK Parliament in Westminster reduced to a single Chamber elected on a Regional basis, and with Civil Servants forcibly moved North might be the the sort of Manifesto Commitment the Party should put forward in Glasgow next month.