Recent polling carried out ahead of the 2026 Welsh Elections suggests that, for the first time since the inception of a devolved Welsh administration, Labour will not be the largest party, with both Plaid and Reform vying to be the leader of a minority government.
The race to lead the Senedd has yet to begin, but the Welsh Liberal Democrats must consider their place in a Welsh political landscape that, for the first time since 1999, Plaid Cymru could lead the government. I’ll save speculation for a Reform-led Welsh government for another time.
Plaid Cymru’s aim for the longest time was to secede Wales from the UK, and have it rejoin the EU as an independent nation. Its current leader, Rhun ap Iorweth, however, has ruled out plans for independence within the first term of a Plaid Cymru-led government. Plaid’s current policies, according to their website, include securing “fair funding for Wales” from Westminster to invest in areas like public transport and healthcare, implementing an “Essentials Guarantee” scheme to ensure Welsh citizens in need receive “at least the minimum required for their daily life”, and petitioning the UK government to withdraw from the international arms supply trade.
It is fair to say that in quite a few areas, the Welsh Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru can find common ground. We both support the strengthening of LGBTQ+ rights, reintegration into the EU, the creation of a National Care Service, and a wide array of climate and environmental policies. It would make sense, should it come to it, for the Welsh Liberal Democrats to work with Plaid Cymru, whether it be a coalition, supply and confidence deal, etc.
The elephant in the room, of course, is the I word: independence. While Plaid’s long-term goal is Welsh Independence, the Liberal Democrats are a federalist party, so in that regard, we do stand in contrast to one another. But herein lies an opportunity to sidestep issues of independence and focus on shared democratic reform.
A Plaid-Liberal partnership can focus on devolving matters such as policing, justice and rail to the Senedd. It can push for an open-list PR voting system to strengthen voter choice. And it can focus on establishing a Welsh Citizens’ Assembly to involve the Welsh public in long-term policy planning.
While they differ on the destination, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats could agree on the journey: a fairer, greener, better Wales.
* Jack Meredith is a member of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and an active campaigner and canvasser with Swansea and Gower Liberal Democrats. His writing focuses on democratic reform, social justice, trade unionism, economic democracy, and the institutional foundations of effective government. He has written for the Fabians, Lib Dem Voice, Liberator, Nation Cymru, Bylines Cymru, and Centre Think Tank.
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8 Comments
My view is that, above all, we believe in democracy and therefore we should support the right of Wales to secede from the UK if that is the democratic wishes of the Welsh. We may wish to argue the benefits of Wales remaining in the Union but if instead we all end up as members of the EU together, I am comfortable with that.
In response to Brenda Will:
That’s fair, but given Plaid’s own leader has said independence won’t be the focus during the first parliament, which I have sourced in the piece, I believe the focus needs to be on what the Welsh Lib Dems can do constructively with Plaid Cymru to benefit Wales now.
Let’s not fool ourselves. The chances of Wales being an independent country & becoming an EU member is – zilch, zero , nill….
In response to Greg:
Yes very good, but the point of the article is to focus on what Welsh Liberal Democrats can achieve if we work with Plaid in the Senedd. We have a shared desire to establish a National Care Service, we both want further PR beyond closed-list voting, we both support LGBTQ+ rights and net zero policies. There are many areas we can collaborate on.
@ Greg Hyde. Perversely the impossibility of Plaid Cymru achieving their main objective makes them more attractive as a vehicle for tactical voting against Reform. They are following the SNP route. First election form a minority Government, then win a majority at the following election with a Referendum on independence. As in Scotland they will find the pro independence Greens an easier fit than the now Unionist Liberal Democrats.
Most of the people who vote for either Plaid or Reform will do so because they feel Labour has failed them/taken them for granted/not listened to them etc.
But Plaid and Reform will then claim it’s ‘the will of the Welsh people’ that they do X or Y, when it isn’t. The thought of either being in charge is depressing.
If it does end up that Plaid are in charge, but without a sufficient majority to govern alone, AND we keep our current (single) Senedd member, or improve on that… Then I’d say supply and confidence deal only.
No way do we need to tie ourselves too tightly to nationalism, which is so divisive. There’s more than enough anger and hostility in the world, without stoking anti-English feelings here.
Meanwhile, I think the most pressing worry for many Welsh Lib Dems is if we should hold our noses and vote tactically for whoever locally is best-placed to see off Reform.
This is a valuable contribution, Jack, and I support its main thrust. Perhaps it would help to set out the finding of the latest YouGov polling for the new 96-member Senedd, on which this discussion is based, and which seems realistic at the moment from best viewponts:
Plaid – 30% (projected 38 seats)
Reform – 20% (projected 37 seats)
Labour – 14% (projected 11 seats)
Cons – 11% (6 seats, down from 14)
LibDem – 6% (3 seats, up from 1)
Green – 6% (1 seat, up from 0)
Others – 4% (no seats)
Labour is not just down it is catastrophically so, although it is presently burying its collective head in the sand and refusing to contemplate the situation. And this is BEFORE the launch of the new Corbynite party, whose impact is presently uncertain but it guaranteed to cut into the residual Labour vote. The Tories are even worse off.
What is clearly going to be required is support from both Labour and LibDems for Plaid to form a government (and I concur with Cassie that this should only be done on a supply-and-confidence basis).
Oops, a couple of typos, so I repeat the corrected version:
This is a valuable contribution, Jack, and I support its main thrust. Perhaps it would help to set out the finding of the latest YouGov polling for the new 96-member Senedd, on which this discussion is based, and which seems realistic at the moment from all the evidence I have seen:
Plaid – 30% (projected 38 seats)
Reform – 29% (projected 37 seats)
Labour – 14% (projected 11 seats)
Cons – 11% (6 seats, down from 14)
LibDem – 6% (3 seats, up from 1)
Green – 6% (1 seat, up from 0)
Others – 4% (no seats)
Labour is not just down, it is catastrophically so, although it is presently burying its collective head in the sand and refusing to contemplate the situation. And this is BEFORE the launch of the new Corbynite party, whose impact is presently uncertain but is guaranteed to cut into the residual Labour vote. The Tories are even worse off.
What is clearly going to be required is support from both Labour and LibDems for Plaid to form a government (and I concur with Cassie that this should only be done on a supply-and-confidence basis), especially if Labour continues to sink – even by a couple more points in the polls.