On Thursday, 23 October, Plaid Cymru ended nearly a century of Welsh Labour dominance in Caerphilly after having won the by-election triggered by the untimely passing of Welsh Labour MS Hefin David.
The result, which saw a 27% swing from Welsh Labour to Plaid Cymru, must be a wake-up call for liberals that nationalism is on the rise, on both sides of the political aisle. While Plaid won the by-election, Reform UK finished second, ahead of Welsh Labour, indicating that not only is Welsh Labour finally being punished for its complacency, but the void it has left is being filled by parties that wish to tear the UK apart; in one case, culturally, and in another, literally. To be clear: Labour didn’t lose because Wales turned nationalist. They lost because neither Westminster nor Cardiff Bay is doing what’s best for Wales.
This is where the Welsh Liberal Democrats must stake their claim to delivering a better deal for Wales. At a time when Reform’s anti-immigration rhetoric and Plaid’s nationalism are on the rise, the Welsh Liberal Democrats must offer a real alternative; one that champions Welsh identity and pushes for full self-governance, while seeking to redesign and strengthen the United Kingdom to make it a truly union of equals.
We cannot simply talk about stronger devolved powers in abstract terms. It’s time to lay out tangible reforms:
- Full fiscal responsibility for the Senedd
- Complete reform of the Barnett Formula
- Entrenched constitutional rights guaranteeing Welsh governance
- A written federal constitution for the UK
Caerphilly proved that Welsh voters want change. The challenge before us is to show that change doesn’t mean leaving the UK, nor does it mean embracing regressive ideas. It can mean reimagining our current circumstances and creating a federal Wales within a reformed United Kingdom.
That is the better deal Wales deserves.
* Jack Meredith is a member of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and an active campaigner and canvasser with Swansea and Gower Liberal Democrats. His writing focuses on democratic reform, social justice, trade unionism, economic democracy, and the institutional foundations of effective government. He has written for the Fabians, Lib Dem Voice, Liberator, Nation Cymru, Bylines Cymru, and Centre Think Tank.
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16 Comments
Might loudly stating the harm that Neoliberal Austerity is and has done to regular citizens, and their children help Wales and Welsh Liberal Democrats?
Ditto policies promoting a fair, effective and transparent tax set up and a “Mixed Economy” using the L. D heritage of Social Liberal Democracy?
Fully agree that Federalism is a better way forward for the Welsh than leaving the UK. Perhaps we should be identifying additional powers that could easily be transferred as an interim step and campaign for that at the elections next year?
@Steve Trevethan
We can, and should, do both. Wales has been shafted either wholly or partially by both Westminster and Cardiff Bay respectively, and we cannot allow Plaid to just claim this space.
@Jenny. The UK government no longer grants powers to the Senedd. The Senedd has general competence except in areas where powers are reserved to the UK government or Parliament or where Welsh legislation would specifically contradict UK legislation with UK or England and Wales scope. That’s a lot of exceptions but it means the UK Parliament needs to ammend a lot of specific laws to reduce their scope. It’s generally a better settlement than the pevious system of granted powers. I wish we had the same in London. Jack is right to highlight fiscal responsibility as a key area where Westminster has to loosen its grip.
The main issue with any proposed federal UK is the size of England mainly in terms of population to the other constituent parts. This means you have to deal with the fact that one part of the federation has 60 million out of the total population of 70 million. This is probably not sustainable.
I am aware that party policy is that England should be divided into smaller regions based on the Radcliffe Maud provinces which appear to date only to 1969; although slightly different region may date back to the 1890s. Source Wikipedia.
But the fact that these regions are not historical regions as for example German Lander are, means that the populations of these regions do not really share any connection economically or culturally.
Therefore I do not believe this is a viable solution. It is true that you could create a Cornish region and perhaps include the Isle of Mann and the Channel Islands as regions but this would probably make things worse.
I have not seen a solution to this problem that is convincing to me.
I wonder to what extent the Plaid victory in Caerphilly isn’t so much a vote for independence as a vote for someone who isn’t Labour or the Tories and isn’t Reform? People who are sick of Labour and the Tories and who also recognise Reform as toxic coalescing around the next best alternative.
@Jack. I agree with you that: ’Labour didn’t lose because Wales turned nationalist. They lost because neither Westminster nor Cardiff Bay is doing what’s best for Wales.’
They voted Plaid or Reform as the only ‘not Labour’ options with a chance of winning. And Reform said afterwards they thought Plaid had won due to tactical voting by other parties to keep them (Reform) out.
It’s what I’d have done if I lived there, as the lesser of two unpalatable choices.
However, focussing on devolved powers and the Barnett Formula is a total snoozefest for most voters.
People in Caerphilly, and elsewhere in Wales, do want change. But in the form of shorter hospital waiting lists, improved local services, an end to facilities being shut while council tax rises… Not more powers for the Senedd: many would say the best way to save money for services would be to scrap it!
@Cassie You’ve hit the nail on the head! Most people in Britain couldn’t care less about Constitutional reform, it’s a very intangible idea, what matters more is what the Government does to address more immediate problems like the NHS. Yes the election was partially won tactical votes, but I’m equally as sure many chose Plaid because they offered a specific vision for Wales, instead of a more general National message.
@Andrew Tampion How does being recently defined make something economically unviable? Being ancient hasn’t made Wales economically viable. That needs to be done by some of those nerdy changes that the electorate couldn’t care less about.
London, of course, does have a devolved government. It may not be that democratic but it is economically viable. The rest of the English regions may not be culturallly distinct but they were designed specifically to represent regional economies. If they controlled their own economies, they would soon develop their own political cultures and eventually their own sense of identity.
In response to both Rose and Cassie:
While I appreciate your comments, the reality is, it doesn’t matter if federalism is a boring topic or not. Plaid’s platform is built upon the fact that Wales has been neglected, time and again, and they are offering independence as the answer to these problems. If we simply see this as “they didn’t want Labour or Tory” and don’t acknowledge the wider issues surrounding Welsh politics and Wales’ place in the UK, we will become more and more irrelevant in Wales.
Also, in further response to Cassie:
The changes you’re talking about can only come about with more funding. Our funding is currently at the mercy of the Barnett Formula, so if we don’t reform it, those issues persist!
@Andrew Tampion
You mention the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but these are not parts of the United Kingdom so would not be included within any reformed UK.
Yes, of course we want a settlement which brings government over Wales closer to the people of Wales. But most voters who are not obsessed with politics are hazy about the various niceties of ‘federal structures’, ‘devolved government’, ‘Barnet formula’, etc, and they’re not prepared to devote the time from their complicated and busy lives to study the options. So we need to use a term which is easier for voters to latch onto, and recognise that it’s the only thing short of total independence which can be realised. The term which we as Liberals should use, and use all the time in our campaigning, is “Home Rule”.
To summarise what others have said the UK’s asymmetric devolution settlement is a matter of muddling through rather than having any coherent administrative benefits. All the extravagant promises made at the time of the devolution referendum in 1997 have failed to be delivered. However neither have all the dire warnings of chaos and administrative collapse happened.
Since the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum the Liberal Democrats have described themselves as an Unionist Party. In Scotland this was essential as the SNP had for a while united the independence movement. In Wales it merely caused insult to a minority of now formerly Liberal voters who historically supported the Party from the days of Cymru Fydd. Even those of us who describe ourselves as Liberals first find that Unionism just sticks in the throat . There needs to be a Liberal Party in Wales whether it is independent or part of the UK. Returning to a policy of a federal UK is progress after the failure of the last eight years.
If you can persuade England to go for federalism, sure.
You’ve got until Wales (and Scotland) vote for Independence to do that.
But asking people who are fed up with how badly the UK is run to hang on just in case some day there’s federalism is not a tactic that’s likely to pay off.
The question is not whether federalism is the solution to Plaid but what level of powers does Wales and the welsh people want. What is the correct balance of powers and how is it achieved.