Those were the days, eh? Way back in 2024, we were a Party on the up with a record number of MPs. The Tories were banished and in disarray. We talked, in all seriousness, about how we would be the Official Opposition after the next General Election. We looked admiringly at the Canadian Liberals who went from third place with a rump of MPs to an overall majority and thought “that could be us”.
Now? Not so much. We languish, flatlining at 4th in the polls (or occasionally 5th if the Greens are doing well). Our performance in recent parliamentary by-elections has barely registered as a footnote. There has been no discernable bounce in the polls for us following conference season – one of the few times of the year when the mainstream media feel some obligation to talk about us a bit.
Where has our ambition gone?
As has been frequently discussed on LDV, or in any gathering of Lib Dems, our strategy post-GE seems to have been to play it safe, keep our heads down, avoid controversy and annoy as few people as possible. Even the ones who will never vote for us. The ‘Equine Pacification’ strategy – don’t frighten the horses.
When I hear briefings from senior figures in the Party now, their assessment is that our held seats are mostly safe. We’re under pressure in a few and might lose a couple, and we might pick up a few target Tory-facing seats, but the end result is likely to leave us where we are now, on 70-odd seats plus or minus a few. Since 2024 I certainly haven’t heard talk of any ambition to deliver a result substantially better than that, or a strategy to deliver it. Is that really good enough?
But all such recent briefings carry the no-longer-subtle subtext that 70-odd seats is enough to once again play kingmaker in a hung Parliament, and maybe form a coalition with Labour – a scenario that might give some of our MPs dreams of ministerial posts, and members nightmares of electoral oblivion a few years later.
Frankly, being in Government right now feels like a poisoned chalice. Rising inflation and energy costs, nervous bond markets, conflict in Europe and the Middle East, a hostile and unpredictable US administration and climate change all present opportunities for far more to go wrong than right, leaving a trail of broken and unaffordable manifesto promises behind.
So if I, as a member, am asked to vote in support of forming a coalition with Labour in the coming months or years, I will take some convincing. To be persuaded, I won’t just need to hear how we will avoid a punishment beating at the General Election after, but also how it will be a springboard to even greater success and many more MPs in the future.
A YouGov survey published after this year’s local elections asked voters the reasons why they voted how they did. The top reason quoted for voting Green, Labour or Conservative was “Best represents my values”. The top reason for voting Reform UK was “Performance of national Government”. The top reason for voting Lib Dem was “To stop a Party I dislike”. This strikes me as a remarkably fragile foundation for future success.
I didn’t join the Lib Dems, give up a fair amount of my spare time, and donate money to watch us sit back and consolidate a comfortable position as the country’s least-offensive minor Party. What are we saying and doing to inspire and motivate the next generation of members and volunteers that are the lifeblood of a Party without access to the funding that others enjoy?
I want a Party prepared to be bold and lead public opinion, rather than follow it, as our predecessors did. I want a vision to take us forward, grow our cohort of MPs, become the Official Opposition and eventually win a majority. Of course it might take a while, but it’s still surely the minimum we should expect from our Leadership? So let’s be loud, proud, and spook a few horses for Halloween!
* Nick Baird is a member and activist from Cheltenham, patiently waiting to be inspired by the Party leadership.
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37 Comments
Nick It was only a matter of time before the Conservative party woke up to the position they found themselves in. Badenochs is no longer under threat. She has now in her mind put clear blue water between her and RUK . She is now moving her party on economic and defence policy to a position that is attractive to those Conservatives who voted for us last time. We are not going to gain Labour voters outside of our target seats. So it is essential that we hold on to those Conservative voters. But I wonder if Davey is still the man to lead. He seems to lack energy even if he is now showing direction.
Hi Tim – that may be a reasonable assessment of where we are now, but it also confirms the problem. When you talk about “those Conservative voters” that’s an acceptance that we haven’t converted them into Lib Dem voters – we’ve just borrowed them temporarily pending a return to sanity by the Tories.
If we can never carve out a space of our own without relying on other parties making room for us, then we’ll only ever be a minor player in 3rd or 4th place. Tactical voting and being everyone’s favourite second choice can only take us so far.
It’s all down to the difference between fluffy seats where we can do well in parts of UK and the larger number of non fluffy seats where we do not. As the last several weeks of local elections. We barely finished above Restore in Holborn.
Nick. Time is the essential element here. Only with time will we be able to see if it worked. Voting for us at elections at all levels will require us to understand their aspirations and fears. It may require us to follow our brains before our hearts. Ian. I would rather win 80 seats and be third everywhere else than win 30 and second in 100 plus. No points for second place
“I would rather win 80 seats and be third everywhere else than win 30 and second in 100 plus. No points for second place”
Seconded
We fought an election “on the issues” in 2019 and look where that got us.
I don’t think anyone’s suggesting we are better off with fewer seats. The question is whether we accept this is our ceiling, or have a vision and plan for more.
As it stands, even if we win 72 seats again we would still be going backwards in the sense that we would drop to 4th largest party, which would mean our MPs lose out at PMQs and on select committees, meaning we have even less impact.
It’s a two equine pacification race.
This is a perceptive article: https://samf.substack.com/p/the-three-big-problems-with-the-tories?r=2b8jee&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
The question is whether we accept this is our ceiling, or have a vision and plan for more.”
Well the gap in politics right now is for a genuinely liberal party (not one that is just socially liberal) j that economically sits centre right……
“What are we saying and doing to inspire and motivate the next generation of members and volunteers that are the lifeblood of a Party without access to the funding that others enjoy?”
I think we need to talk a lot more about freedom, acknowledging that wealth is what enables freedom from poverty, ignorance and conformity while enabling people to be free to do and say what they like – including making money.
MPs starting to move now. Change is coming, I hope so.
The start of the process that got The Greens into their current mess was in the 1990s with The “Gap on The Left” strategy – essentially pretending to have more in common with The “Left” than was actually true.
That strategy, while successful was coming at Politics from the wrong end, deciding what you want to do should come first.
We don’t suffer from Entryism, thank god but we have got too reliant on Voters who don’t agree with our values lending us their Votes, we sound so much like Old “One Nation” Tories that its no wonder if Voters can’t see what we are.
Tactical Voting & Targeting will be useless when we actually get Fair Votes.
It’s the economy and associated services.
The UK has been in decline for a long time and anyone who can present a genuine way out of this decline, sort the size of the welfare spend (preferably by taking out of the need for support to being productive contributors) and deliver on the key services – Defence, NHS and infrastructure (why can’t we get anything done quickly?).
Membership of the Customs Union is only a small part of the answer whist sorting the structural issues that have had us in decline even when we were inside the EU is what is desperately needed.
“Badenochs ………… is now moving her party on economic and defence policy”
To those criticising the party leadership
1 They have been talking about social care and Europe. Look where Andy Burnham is heading.
2 They have been talking about defence and growth. Look where the Conservatives are heading.
Well, looks like the first shots have been fired.
Interesting fact, the leaders who led the Lib Dems to their previous two high water marks (Ashdown 97 and Kennedy 05) didn’t last out the subsequent Parliament.
@ Paul Barker, “The start of the process that got The Greens into their current mess was in the 1990s with The “Gap on The Left” strategy”.
What got the Greens in a mess was selecting as their new Leader a flaky ex Lib Dem who, amongst other things, claimed hypnosis could change a woman’s anatomy.
I am glad to hear that Charlie and others are pushing Ed for change. He’s ignored the stagnant polls and the frustration among MPs for far too long. He’s been a great leader but the last test of a leader is knowing when it’s time to step aside.
@ Sarah: absolutely
It’s definitely time for a more dynamic, and preferably charismatic leader!!
One that will tell the people all the great things that the Liberal supporters have achieved in the past to show our direction.
And to enlighten them to see that they are really Liberal Democrats.
Totally agree with Nick’s assesment and comments. There is zero national presence, the party seems almost entirely focused on holding the blue wall, by keeping Tory voters. No real strategy for winning more Lib Dems. In most campaigns outside of the SE, we simply pitch ourselves as alternative to Reform. Whether Ed stays or goes, a new strategy is needed, once that promotes Liberal views and aims for national support.
2024 was our best planned and executed election in the modern era. We can all be grateful for that to Ed and the team around him.
But the party leadership has made many errors and omissions since.
It’s time for change. Either a new leader or a revitalised Ed.
Well said, I’m with you and think your assessment is spot on. Too much treading water, not enough radical Liberalism. I’ve been a member since 1980 and fear we’ve, in the main, lost our way since Charles Kennedy ceased to be leader.
Ed’ was regularly hitting all the right notes until Burnhamism, whatever that is, came along. Our reaction to Burnham has been all wrong in my book. We should be welcoming the things he’s talking about where we have general agreement BUT challenging him to go further; it’s what Kennedy did with Labour back in the day.
We are in a bind created from the fall out of the Coalition Gov where we only look to challenge the Tories and try to keep on board those that came over to us. It’s no medium or long-term political strategy for Liberals who are radical, left of centre and progressive by instinct. A way has to be found to move us back in that direction. Doing nothing is not an option.
@ Tony Robertson A great post, Tony with which I 99% agree. The one per cent is that he didn’t tread water (that was the prerogative of a higher being) but he fell in it.
Some depressing comments above. As a member who used to be much more (local party chair, PPC in 2010/15/17, county cllr) I struggle to motivate myself to do much for the current party leaders. There is such a lack of ambition, and what there is seems to be totally focussed on the home counties and the soft Tory vote. It is almost as if the leadership lack any confidence in our policies. they certainly lack the ability to express what they are, let alone what the vision the party has for the future of the UK. Dorothy Thornhill’s review of 2019 identified the leader’s role as being to do just that and by any measure Ed has failed that test. it is time he moved aside and let someone with a vision and the communication skills to get it across. Who will that be?
@Tony R – absolutely right. Burnham is echoing so much of what we have been shouting about (and being ignored) for years. Electoral reform, localism, social care, even the EU. We should (a) be claiming these victories (as the Greens have done on Palestine) and (b) pointing out where Labour don’t go far enough, or all too often end up with a totally stupid implementation of a good idea as they have with LGR. Instead what do we do? Announce totally daft economic policy such as a Department of Growth (DOG!) or tax cute to be funded by a hopelessly optimistic and very much jam tomorrow predictions of future growth from closer ties with the EU. And defend the indefensible triple lock. I despair.
Ed concluded our Autumn Conference by telling us that ‘We are in the fight of our lives – and we will win!’ Of course, rapturous applause followed. But somehow the speech didn’t hit the zeitgeist. It wasn’t taken up by the Media and now it’s difficult to recall the details.
We passed any number of good motions at Conference, as well – on Democracy, and on Party Strategy, for instance – but, as so often with us, we are good but we make no impact.
It does seem that, as commentators above suggest, the impetus now is with Andy Burnham and we will do well to applaud his backing so many of our favourite themes while also encouraging him to do better: for instance, I would advise giving councils more resources rather than mayors (Labour being top-down again as ever). But I also agree with the growing belief in our party that we need a new leader to emerge now and for Ed then to end his faithful service and hand over the torch.
I agree with Nigel Quinton, Tony Robertson and Katharine Pindar on the lack of a clear party lead on our overall vision for the future of the country which must include dealing with inequalities and rather reluctantly on improvement to our leader’s communication. Like so much of what goes on at conference he is good at commenting on issues and policies but these need to be illustrative of a national message. I also think however that the whole party needs to play a better part in this; local parties do not include anywhere near enough mention of where we stand on national and international issues. How can we not do that and at the same time complain we do not get attention from national media? Likewise why do so much good in Parliament when hardly anyone outside the party knows anything about it?
What I find so disappointing about the last 2 years is that the 2024 GE result gave the party a massive boost in resources and, potentially, political influence. Unless there is a radical re-set now, all that opportunity will have been squandered. It’s tragic that just when liberal democracy is under attack like never before, the Liberal Democrats are – at national level – nowhere to be seen.
Tax cuts based on Unicorn growth from EU membership which we have no idea of a pathway & timeline to get there. I see mps have been given a memo from HQ and are relaying that support out on social media.
The ceiling has been reached, there is no other way for the current leadership to go other than in a downward trajectory..
Consider the following:
The Green Party is suddenly very vulnerable
Labour has a new leader seeking to push a different approach and different direction
Reform and the Conservatives will split the right wing between them.
I think we have an opportunity to be bold: focus on our Green credentials for the next few months in particular to attract disillusioned Green supporters, and argue for a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition government as the best way to keep Reform out of government while delivering Social Care, electoral reform and a closer EU relationship. Sadly, I think such a shift of approach will only be credible with a new leader who was not part of a previous Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition. Time for a contest…
I agree with most of Mr Baird’s post, but not on “most of our seats are safe”.
I’m afraid that’s not the case without compelling leadership.
It’s a complete myth that we have to be Tory-lite to win over previous Tory voters. Most voters aren’t that ideological or partisan. So Ed jumping on the banknote bandwagon earlier this year made no sense, as the only people for whom that is an issue are people who would never consider voting Lib Dem. It was in any case an example of pointless gesture politics which is usually associated with political extremists and not something a serious political party should have anything to do with.
We definitely need a more radical approach to policy-making. We should not have jumped on the social media ban-wagon (yes I know not everyone will agree but the reality is that user bans will have the opposite of the intended effect). Rather than policing users we should be policing the platforms. A tech tax is great, but we should go further by breaking up Big Tech, and forcing the platforms to open up their algorithms, allow opt-outs and enable users to transfer their data between platforms. User bans and curfews are likely to entrench the existing platforms because the required surveillance infrastructure will increase compliance costs and thus shut out potential competitors (something we are already seeing with the mandatory age-gating measures in the Online Safety Act).
Some 15 years ago, we came out firmly against the state-backed internet surveillance proposal that was in vogue at the time, namely “three strikes” internet disconnections for alleged copyright infringement. Like social media bans, this was something that was supposed to become the gold standard regulation. In reality, where such laws are still on the statute books they are hardly enforced because they are unworkable. We should be taking similar radical positions now, rejecting simplistic solutions that don’t work and infringe on the rights of ordinary citizens.
@ Alex Macfie ” So Ed jumping on the banknote bandwagon earlier this year made no sense”.
Can we deduce from that you would prefer a more radical and substantial Leader, Alex ? IMHO though, it needs a more substantial heavyweight group of advisers round him/her who can see the need to appeal and to deliver to all parts of the UK to help in calling the shots.
I’m surprised nothing further has developed from Charlie Maynard’s resignation. Usually with these things there is a sort of plan so the first stone leads to a building avalanche.
That may develop over the coming week(s) but ‘Friday action to ramp up for the Sundays’ is a fairly standard bit of news cycle management’
It may be that sitting MPs have a strong incumbency factor that will protect them in a less benign election. They may even be seeing polling that backs that up……
Found this. Doesn’t sound like a challenge is coming soon!
https://www.politics.co.uk/2026/10/full-list-where-lib-dem-mps-stand-as-bid-to-topple-ed-davey-emerges/
Nick Baird article and the subsequent comments on this piece and Caron Lindsey follow up article shows their is a ground swell for radical liberal leadership . For some time i have argued for a refreshed liberal democrat party and leadership . if our MPs are too timid perhaps a Local Party rebellion will be required . Local Partys and Council groups are the backbone of Liberal Democrats we provide the troops and resources that underpin this party not Ed Davey and his camp followers , i would suggest those in blue wall seats are not safe and could disappear like the driven snow under conservative pressure if the public feels we have offer no purpose or reason for them to vote for us.