Those were the days, eh? Way back in 2024, we were a Party on the up with a record number of MPs. The Tories were banished and in disarray. We talked, in all seriousness, about how we would be the Official Opposition after the next General Election. We looked admiringly at the Canadian Liberals who went from third place with a rump of MPs to an overall majority and thought “that could be us”.

Now? Not so much. We languish, flatlining at 4th in the polls (or occasionally 5^th if the Greens are doing well). Our performance in recent parliamentary by-elections has barely registered as a footnote. There has been no discernable bounce in the polls for us following conference season – one of the few times of the year when the mainstream media feel some obligation to talk about us a bit.

Where has our ambition gone?

As has been frequently discussed on LDV, or in any gathering of Lib Dems, our strategy post-GE seems to have been to play it safe, keep our heads down, avoid controversy and annoy as few people as possible. Even the ones who will never vote for us. The ‘Equine Pacification’ strategy – don’t frighten the horses.

When I hear briefings from senior figures in the Party now, their assessment is that our held seats are mostly safe. We’re under pressure in a few and might lose a couple, and we might pick up a few target Tory-facing seats, but the end result is likely to leave us where we are now, on 70-odd seats plus or minus a few. Since 2024 I certainly haven’t heard talk of any ambition to deliver a result substantially better than that, or a strategy to deliver it. Is that really good enough?

But all such recent briefings carry the no-longer-subtle subtext that 70-odd seats is enough to once again play kingmaker in a hung Parliament, and maybe form a coalition with Labour – a scenario that might give some of our MPs dreams of ministerial posts, and members nightmares of electoral oblivion a few years later.

Frankly, being in Government right now feels like a poisoned chalice. Rising inflation and energy costs, nervous bond markets, conflict in Europe and the Middle East, a hostile and unpredictable US administration and climate change all present opportunities for far more to go wrong than right, leaving a trail of broken and unaffordable manifesto promises behind.

So if I, as a member, am asked to vote in support of forming a coalition with Labour in the coming months or years, I will take some convincing. To be persuaded, I won’t just need to hear how we will avoid a punishment beating at the General Election after, but also how it will be a springboard to even greater success and many more MPs in the future.

A YouGov survey published after this year’s local elections asked voters the reasons why they voted how they did. The top reason quoted for voting Green, Labour or Conservative was “Best represents my values”. The top reason for voting Reform UK was “Performance of national Government”. The top reason for voting Lib Dem was “To stop a Party I dislike”. This strikes me as a remarkably fragile foundation for future success.

I didn’t join the Lib Dems, give up a fair amount of my spare time, and donate money to watch us sit back and consolidate a comfortable position as the country’s least-offensive minor Party. What are we saying and doing to inspire and motivate the next generation of members and volunteers that are the lifeblood of a Party without access to the funding that others enjoy?

I want a Party prepared to be bold and lead public opinion, rather than follow it, as our predecessors did. I want a vision to take us forward, grow our cohort of MPs, become the Official Opposition and eventually win a majority. Of course it might take a while, but it’s still surely the minimum we should expect from our Leadership? So let’s be loud, proud, and spook a few horses for Halloween!

* Nick Baird is a member and activist from Cheltenham, patiently waiting to be inspired by the Party leadership.