Last week, a Labour Prime Minister said he would fight the next election on replacing first past the post with a form of proportional representation. He staked his legacy on a National Care Service, with social care free at the point of use and the cost spread across the population. Electoral reform has been owned by the Liberal Democrat party since its inception, and Ed Davey is renowned for his campaign for better social care. In a single speech, Labour committed to both. Not content with eating the Lib Dem’s lunch, he sized up their pudding by opening the door to EU membership too..
A Westminster Hall Debate on 12th October will discuss the UK’s application to join the EU, triggered by a petition that gathered 111,687 signatures earlier this year. It’s the first time parliament will get to debate the UK-EU relationship since the Prime Minister’s conference speech. It’s an opportunity for pro-European MPs to make a full throated case, and some Labour MPs doubtless will. But how should Lib Dems play it? Best for Britain’s polling shows that the party’s current customs union and single market position is the least popular option among its own supporters. If Labour gets to rejoin first, Lib Dems risk being left sucking their thumb.
In an ideal situation, both parties, along with the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, will go into the next general election with manifesto commitments to join the EU. Our megapoll of more than 10,000 voters shows sticking to the current approach results in a hung parliament, and the nightmare scenario of Reform UK and the Conservatives able to form a government.
We also found that 56% of Lib Dem supporters most wanted the government to propose EU membership. Only 9% picked a customs union and 7% the single market, the party’s current policy. More Lib Dem supporters wanted to stick with Labour’s red lines (16%) than wanted either halfway house. The single market and customs union were the least popular options with the public as a whole too, at 6% and 5%, behind even loosening ties further. The current Lib Dem position doesn’t win over cautious voters because it’s a position almost no-one holds.
On the issue of a Customs Union, business and trade bodies are ambivalent at best, or against it. It does very little to boost GDP and doesn’t remove all trade friction. The Single Market is arguably an even less suitable option for the UK. While it offers significantly more growth than a Customs Union (though still far less than membership), it requires giving enormous amounts of regulatory control to the EU, meaning the UK would be the only G7 economy with this type of arrangement. Most industry bosses jump at the growth prospects, but recoil at having no say or vote on laws that bind us.
Ultimately, the Lib Dem’s current position on Europe will only hold for exactly as long as Labour sticks to its 2024 red lines. After that, they risk not just being left sucking their thumb, but left behind entirely. Monday offers a crucial opportunity for Lib Dem MPs to attend the debate and make the case for membership now – before it’s too late.
* Naomi Smith is Chief Executive of Best for Britain, the UK's leading cross-party campaign group working to restore the UK's EU membership. Best for Britain is dedicated to providing the evidence-led answers that fix Britain.
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16 Comments
Some very useful food for thought for the party. It really needs the leadership to start being prepared to come of the fence for more than reheated coalition era greatest hits (tax thresholds that are remote or financially unachievable if your not prepared to look at things like the triple lock and other issues around the public finances) or gimmicks like British nukes (although that spring conference policy was no where to be heard in Brighton).
Of course the Lib Dem official (if discrete) policy position is to rejoin (eventually). I will regard it as a major political failure if a Labour leader starts talking openly and convincingly about fully rejoining before the Lib Dem leader.
“Only 9% picked a customs union and 7% the single market, the party’s current policy. ”
Maybe people have a limited understanding of what these are. Hell I’m probably in the top 5% of politically aware people and my understanding of what these are and the differences is pretty flakey.
There were polls like this all through the Brexit period which basically came down to suggesting there was some magic formulation of policy that would produce an electoral landslide and well, we know how an overtly Remain focussed campaign worked out in 2019…
It very-much depends on what’s on offer from the EU. People are, overall, very-much in favour of rejoining on our previous terms. Add in the standard “And the Euro and Schengen” that the UK used to have an opt-out for, and support drops dramatically.
There is no stable position that more than 50% of people prefer. I suspect we’re going to end up with something like EFTA membership, and nobody being happy about it.
@Hywel is pointing to the reality. In 2019, the LD were going to be the party of the 48% and ended up with the usual 12% on the one issue that the LD specialised in and the issue of the election (own goal to assist in its timing). Prior to that it was the “party of the 7%” (coined by Theakes I think) which is the real size of the core vote. Not much of a base for power.
@ Andrew Ducker “There is no stable position that more than 50% of people prefer”.
I assume you refer to the people of England, Andrew – a common problem in England. The people of Scotland were dragged out of the EU despite their vote to remain.
The problem in 2019 wasn’t that we were going to “rejoin the EU if we won”, but that we were going to do so without another referendum first, something we’d been campaigning for until then. And while there was some logic to our position, it wasn’t explained well – not that most of the media would have carried our message if it had been.
This made it easy for our enemies to make us look undemocratic and disorganised.
The problem in 2019 was “Vote Lib Dem, Get Jeremy Corbyn”, as was being illegally fly-posted around Cheltenham on polling day….
David 9th Oct ’26 – 10:13am:
Some very useful food for thought for the party.
Here’s the next course…
@ David,
“I assume you refer to the people of England, Andrew…”
Maybe Andrew will correct me, but I took him to mean the people of the UK. Or at least the ones that are able and willing to cast a vote.
Jeff 9th Oct ’26 – 11:45pm………..Well good folks of Britain, when a German and a Greek pro-European are telling you: don’t go back into the EU; well that’s food for thought isn’t it?
I watched your clip.. Please explain why ( although it’s nice that they are so concerned for the UK’s future), if these-EU Greek and German members are so keen on the UK not rejoining the EU, there is absolutely no appetite in Greece or Germany to leave. and why, even France’s Le Pen, has completely abandoned the idea of France leaving the EU?
expats; Looking at the big three economies in the EU – maybe they have a point. Where is this magical growth going to come from. Stagnant growth across the big three what makes you think we’re going to do any better.
Schengen & the Euro will be bitterly opposed.
Add them in the mix and the opinion polls don’t look as appealing.
@ Chloe “Looking at the big three economies in the EU – maybe they have a point. Where is this magical growth going to come from”.
The present occupant of the White House isn’t helping much with the state of the world economy …… or with decency and human rights for that matter. Let’s hope for better things in two years time……. which is why I think there won’t be a UK General Election before 2029. Plenty of time for the Lib Dems to sort out and decide on their Leadership in a considered way.
Chloe 11th Oct ’26 – 10:39am………expats; Looking at the big three economies in the EU – maybe they have a point. Where is this magical growth going to come from. Stagnant growth across the big three what makes you think we’re going to do any better.
Chloe, Just weeks ago, at party conference in Brighton, Davey proposed a £17 billion tax-cut package—raising the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000 and the 40p threshold to £56,000—funded by the economic growth expected from rejoining the EU’s single market and customs union…..
Surely you are not suggesting that Ed is ‘mistaken’?
I’m suggesting as Nigel has written on the previous post. Jam tomorrow – possibly , maybe, doubtful given the growth stats. It’s fantasy stuff the figures being banded about – with potential membership in any shape or form years away.
The golden goose is to capture the imagination of the electorate in painting a picture for the UK that combines vision, credibility and practicality and communicate it in a way that inspires it to support us.