Tag Archives: best for britain

The Independent View: The halfway house nobody wants to live in

Last week, a Labour Prime Minister said he would fight the next election on replacing first past the post with a form of proportional representation. He staked his legacy on a National Care Service, with social care free at the point of use and the cost spread across the population. Electoral reform has been owned by the Liberal Democrat party since its inception, and Ed Davey is renowned for his campaign for better social care. In a single speech, Labour committed to both. Not content with eating the Lib Dem’s lunch, he sized up their pudding by opening the door to EU membership too..

A Westminster Hall Debate on 12th October will discuss the UK’s application to join the EU, triggered by a petition that gathered 111,687 signatures earlier this year. It’s the first time parliament will get to debate the UK-EU relationship since the Prime Minister’s conference speech. It’s an opportunity for pro-European MPs to make a full throated case, and some Labour MPs doubtless will. But how should Lib Dems play it? Best for Britain’s polling shows that the party’s current customs union and single market position is the least popular option among its own supporters. If Labour gets to rejoin first, Lib Dems risk being left sucking their thumb.

In an ideal situation, both parties, along with the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, will go into the next general election with manifesto commitments to join the EU. Our megapoll of more than 10,000 voters shows sticking to the current approach results in a hung parliament, and the nightmare scenario of Reform UK and the Conservatives able to form a government.

We also found that 56% of Lib Dem supporters most wanted the government to propose EU membership. Only 9% picked a customs union and 7% the single market, the party’s current policy. More Lib Dem supporters wanted to stick with Labour’s red lines (16%) than wanted either halfway house. The single market and customs union were the least popular options with the public as a whole too, at 6% and 5%, behind even loosening ties further. The current Lib Dem position doesn’t win over cautious voters because it’s a position almost no-one holds.

Posted in The Independent View | Also tagged | 15 Comments

The Government doesn’t have a mandate for Brexit – the state of play in current and former Lib Dem seats

New analysis  for Best for Britain, Avaaz and Hope not Hate which breaks down the results by constituency, has our most comprehensive picture yet of how the country would vote in a People’s Vote.

The results call the mandate to leave the EU into question. Two thirds of constituencies would now back remaining in the EU.

Our research shows that the country has moved significantly since 2016, with two thirds of constituencies in Great Britain now wanting to stay with our existing deal.

There is majority support for a final say for the people in every single one of the 632constituencies analysed in this research. This research also shows that, in the event of a people’s vote, staying in the EU would win by 56% to 44% leave – the highest level of support for staying in the EU since the June 2016 vote.

For the first time, England joins Scotland and Wales as having a majority of constituenciesthat support membership of the European Union; clear evidence that the question of the 2016 EU referendum needs to be revisited.

So how does this affect current Lib Dem seats.

Those that voted Remain have got more Remainy.

Tom Brake’s which voted to Leave would now Remain.

Norman Lamb’s North Norfolk has seen the Remain vote go up by 6% to 47.7%.

Here they all are…

Wera Hobhouse Bath June 16 68.3% November 18 73.3%

Jamie Stone Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross June 16 50.6% November 18 60.1%

Tom Brake Carshalton and Wallington June 16 43.7% November 18 53.3%

Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire June 16 73.3% November 18 79.7%

Christine Jardine Edinburgh West June 16 71.2% November 18 75.9%

Ed Davey Kingston and Surbiton June 16 58.45 November 18 65.2%

Norman Lamb North Norfolk June 16 41.7% November 18 47.7%

Alistair Carmichael Orkney and Shetland June 16 59.7% November 18 69%

Layla Moran Oxford West and Abingdon June 16 61.8% November 18 65.6%

Vince Cable Twickenham June 16 66.3% November 18 70.4%

Tim Farron Westmorland and Lonsdale June 16 52.5% November 18 56.8%

And what about seats we have held in the past? Here’s a few random examples from across the country.

Posted in News | Also tagged and | 7 Comments
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