Author Archives: Naomi Smith

Last week, a Labour Prime Minister said he would fight the next election on replacing first past the post with a form of proportional representation. He staked his legacy on a National Care Service, with social care free at the point of use and the cost spread across the population. Electoral reform has been owned by the Liberal Democrat party since its inception, and Ed Davey is renowned for his campaign for better social care. In a single speech, Labour committed to both. Not content with eating the Lib Dem’s lunch, he sized up their pudding by opening the door to EU membership too..

A Westminster Hall Debate on 12th October will discuss the UK’s application to join the EU, triggered by a petition that gathered 111,687 signatures earlier this year. It’s the first time parliament will get to debate the UK-EU relationship since the Prime Minister’s conference speech. It’s an opportunity for pro-European MPs to make a full throated case, and some Labour MPs doubtless will. But how should Lib Dems play it? Best for Britain’s polling shows that the party’s current customs union and single market position is the least popular option among its own supporters. If Labour gets to rejoin first, Lib Dems risk being left sucking their thumb.

In an ideal situation, both parties, along with the Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, will go into the next general election with manifesto commitments to join the EU. Our megapoll of more than 10,000 voters shows sticking to the current approach results in a hung parliament, and the nightmare scenario of Reform UK and the Conservatives able to form a government.

We also found that 56% of Lib Dem supporters most wanted the government to propose EU membership. Only 9% picked a customs union and 7% the single market, the party’s current policy. More Lib Dem supporters wanted to stick with Labour’s red lines (16%) than wanted either halfway house. The single market and customs union were the least popular options with the public as a whole too, at 6% and 5%, behind even loosening ties further. The current Lib Dem position doesn’t win over cautious voters because it’s a position almost no-one holds.