There were five principal council by-elections this week, four of which had a Liberal Democrat on the ballot, up from just one last time these wards were contested.
In Kent, Ashley Wassall and the Sevenoaks team earned a quarter of the vote from a standing start, as the Conservatives picked up the seat from Independent. This is a good base to start from in the next campaign here. Good effort!
Sevenoaks District Council, Hextable
Conservative: 600 (38.9%, +19.3)
Reform UK: 406 (26.3%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Ashley Wassall): 367 (23.8%, new)
Independent: 108 (7.0%, new)
Green Party: 62 (4.0%, new)
Conservative GAIN from Independent
Turnout: 47.15%
In County Durham, there was a rare gain for Labour, who beat Reform UK. Thank you to Neil Thompson for standing here.
Durham Council, Murton
Labour: 1,004 (50.6%, +17.6)
Reform UK: 786 (39.6%, –4.5)
Green Party: 95 (4.8%, new)
Conservative: 61 (3.1%, –2.0)
Liberal Democrats (Neil Thompson): 38 (1.9%, –2.3)
Labour GAIN from Reform UK
Turnout: 24.9%
In Stroud, there was a hold by the Green Party. Thank you Raffy Chiswick for getting us onto the ballot here.
Stroud District Council, Thrupp
Green Party: 540 (67.5%, +3.1)
Reform UK: 132 (16.5%, new)
Conservative: 58 (7.3%, –10.3)
Labour: 46 (5.8%, –12.3)
Liberal Democrats (Raffy Chiswick): 22 (2.8%, new)
UKIP: 2 (0.3%, new)
Green Party HOLD
Turnout: 41.3%
Meanwhile, in Braintree, Reform UK gained a seat from the joint Independent / Green Party ticket. Thanks go to Barry Fleet for getting a Lib Dem on the ballot.
Braintree District Council, Coggleshall
Reform UK: 554 (30.7%, new)
Independent: 517 (28.7%, new)
Labour: 366 (20.3%, +4.4)
Conservative: 311 (17.2%, –12.6)
Liberal Democrats (Barry Fleet): 55 (3.1%, new)
Reform UK GAIN from Independent / Green Party
Turnout: 37.13%
Finally, Labour fell to fourth place in Tamworth, losing the seat to Reform UK.
Tamworth Borough Council, Spital
Reform UK: 719 (44.6%, new)
Green Party: 337 (20.4%, new)
Conservative: 319 (19.4%, –18.9)
Labour: 273 (16.6%, –23.4)
Reform UK GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 26.2%
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams. A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Chris Ward is the Campaigns and Communications Intern for ALDC
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6 Comments
Concerning to see that 5 by-elections result in one net gain each for Reform and Conservatives, with Reform averaging 31% on the night.
This is the first time Labour have gained a seat in a local by-election for well over year (the last was 21st November 2024), and the first time they have gained a seat from Reform. There is an article in the i newspaper today saying that Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens are much more likely to vote tactically to defeat Reform. I think that was probably a factor in last week’s parliamentary by-election. This could make a significant difference at the next general election.
We should not get too excited about one week of results.
Recent Polls show a sharp drop in Reform support, on top of the usual slow decline – the last three Polls have them in a range of 23% to 27%. At their peak five Months ago Reform were Polling in a range of 29% to 36%.
Paul ; What’s to be excited about 3% in two & 2% in the other ? If you’re post refers to a drop in Reform support – a far more accurate test will be in around 8 weeks time. Looking at the results it’s fairly respectable as regards their support/vote share as Joan has pointed out. May give us a better guide.
Paul is quite correct. One week’s results tell you very little. Three out of five of next week’s by-elections are in Lib Dem held wards. Unless we do disastrously we might well outpoll Reform next week, but so what? You have to look at around 40 or more by-election results to even out the statistical “noise”.
The point about the last three Polls is that they are the only ones showing shifts as a result of the result in the Manchester by-election; two of them show sharp rises in Green support, as we might expect & one a sharp fall for Reform.
Obviously we have to wait to see more Polls to be sure, I am just impatient.