A few days ago Jacob Rees Mogg suggested that a change of Prime Minister would lead to an early General Election. He must know this isn’t true: are we being softened up for one?
His remarks have been read as an attempt to stop Tory MPs in former “red wall” seats siding against Boris Johnson, but aren’t these the Tory MPs with the strongest incentive to ensure that their party has a leader who people support?
What he’s reported to have said on Newsnight is:
“It is my view that we’ve moved, for better or worse, to an essentially presidential system and therefore the mandate is personal rather than entirely party [based] and any PM would be very well advised to seek a fresh mandate.”
The Tories won in 2019 on a promise to deliver Brexit, and shouldn’t be able escape the consequences by going to the polls early. The unravelling of Brexit and the consequences of their handling of Covid will mean they are in a weak position when the next General Election is due, in 2024. Going sooner than that, while they have a comfortable majority, would attract criticism. But a General Election in the “honeymoon” period of a new leader could be sold as “democratic”. Supporters of opposition parties would — rightly — cry “foul”, but the Tories would be gambling on coming back with a reduced, but viable, majority.
The size of the Tory majority means that opposition parties can’t stop an early General Election, but we do need to be prepared.
Rees-Mogg’s claim that we have an “essentially presidential” system should send a shudder down the spine. Combined with increasing authoritarianism, attempts to prevent the courts stopping the government and attacks on the BBC, this is sounding like a fundamental challenge to our liberties and values.
If we were still in the EU, we would be at risk of joining Hungary and Poland in facing action under Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union for breaching its fundamental values:
“respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities… in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail.”
Johnson will hang on until his party concludes that replacing him is in their interest. Winning the next General Election will be high on their priorities. Doing that later this year sounds crazy. It is as crazy as the idea of Leave winning the EU referendum, or the Tories coming back with a big majority in 2019. We need to be prepared. Doing well in the local elections in May this year is a good place to start.
* Mark Argent was the Liberal Democrat candidate for Huntingdon in the 2019 and 2024 General Elections.
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9 Comments
There will be no early election while the Tories appear likely to lose. I’m afraid we will probably have to wait until 2024 unless the Tories replace Boris and see the opinion polls change in their favour.
The Tories are not going to try and call an election while they are behind Labour in the polls. They will also probably not call one until both the boundary changes and the Voter Disenfranchisement Act have taken effect, so May 2024 is still the most likely time.
Which is as it should be.
I was a supporter of the Fixed Terms Parliaments Act when it was introduced, and I still am today.
You know, people keep giving Johnson credit for delivering that Tory Commons majority in 2019. Has anyone ever thought that, once the opposition parties got suckered into fighting a General Election, it might actually have been Corbyn, who actually lost it?
If Johnson goes – and there really is no certainty of this – the Tories will suddenly become fans of the FTPA (Fixed Term Parliament Act to the uninitiated) and hold out until 2024.
This is a real danger but there isn’t much we can do except talk about it & jeer at Tory cowardice. The more talk of The Tories “cutting & running” the harder it gets the harder it is for them to do it.
I can see two reasons why the Conservatives might want an early election:
* Preempt Brexit being seen as a failure
* Exploit Labour’s financial difficulties
But as mentioned above this needs to be weighed against current polling, and waiting for coming boundary changes and voter ID to be enacted.
Rees-Mogg was just trying to stop rebel MPs sending letters in to the 1922 committee. That’s all he was doing with that comment. He knows if there’s a change of PM he’ll be out of the cabinet, so he’s just trying to scare the Red Wall rebels: “If Boris goes there’ll have to be an election and you’ll lose your seat! Don’t do it.” It’s all about self-preservation. There’s no way at all that the Tories would throw away an 80 majority with 2 years left to run.
The idea of Leave winning the EU referendum wasn’t crazy, I remember saying as the polls closed that the result was too close to call. And the more doors I knocked on in 2019 the more it became clear that the Tories would do well.
Johnson is damaging the Tory brand in a way which makes a speedy recovery more and more difficult and he has the advantage that there’s no strong challenger to take over. The Tories won’t chose to hold a General Election this year and risk their 80 seat majority.
@Mark Inskip “The idea of Leave winning the EU referendum wasn’t crazy, I remember saying as the polls closed that the result was too close to call.”
I called it and made money in the first (and only) bet I ever made. Small consolation for the result, and I was disappointed by the inability of the “experts” and leaders of the Remain campaign to see how badly they were doing and adapt. I was wrong about what would happen next though. I’d expected compromise and a soft Brexit-in-name-only as a step towards either returning (hopefully!) or moving further away, and was surprised by the all-or-nothing strategy that helped get us to where we are now. 🙁
With regards to the Tory leadership, because the opposition has been overwhelmingly anti-Johnson with neither the Lib Dems nor Labour offering much in the way of policy (Lib Dems even opposed their own policy on HS2 in Chesham & Amersham!), if the Tories do replace Johnson I’d expect them to want to cash in on the change of leader with an election before the shine wears off the new one.
The big problem for any new Tory leader replacing Johnson is that they would have to explain their previous loyalty to him, especially if (as is most likely) the replacement comes from the Cabinet. The only way the Tories could get around that problem would be to elect a leader from the Backbenches (Tom Tugendhat has been mooted as a possible contender).
Replacing the leader doesn’t always work, especially with a long-serving leader or one who has rebuilt the party around their own image. It didn’t work for the Canadian Tories in 1993. The long-serving PM Brian Mulroney had become deeply unpopular, and was replaced shortly before the GE that year, but new PM Kim Campbell wasn’t able to escape his long shadow, and she led the party to a disastrous election result winning only 2 (TWO!) seats. Her tenure as Prime Minister was so short she never even faced PMQs.