Perhaps we should try not having a leader more often? The last three polls have shown support for the Lib Dems on the up after the nadir of mid-October.
* Today’s Guardian ICM (compared with last poll): Tories 40%(-3), Labour 35%(-1), Lib Dem 18%(+4).
* Yesterday’s Independent ComRes poll: Tories 41%(+7), Labour 33%(-4), Lib Dem 16%(+1)
* Sunday’s Observer Ipsos-Mori poll: Tories 40%(-1), Labour 41%(+3), Lib Dem 13%(+2)
Whether this is the result of the extra publicity caused by Ming’s resignation and subsequent leadership contest, or whether it’s a return to a more steady-state position after the ups-and-downs of the conference season and the election that never was, is a moot point.
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9 Comments
1 – How can it be anything other than a moot point? Anyone who imagines they can know why polls go up or down is kidding themselves.
Blimey, it looks like Ming was more unpopular than anyone thought. Also, a seemingly trivial point, but I do think it was a mistake having someone with a knighood- however deserved- leading a so-called progressive liberal party.
How can it be a moot point? Surely the Lib Dems need to know what causes their poll ratings to fluctuate?!?! Distinguishing between extra publicity and leadership candidates (including their policies) sounds pretty fundamental if the Lib Dems want to rebuild.
Hmmm.. now there is a thought. The Tories did very well without any policies for a considerable time.
However, consider the example of Belgium, who seemed to cope pretty well without any Government at all…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2007/09/divided_belgium.html
On a slightly more serious note.. and speaking as a floating voter, despite all my criticisms of things Lib Dem, I have voted for them in the past. I might be tempted again if Nick Clegg wins, as I now hear he is opposed to the ID card project to the point of civil disobedience.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/10/clegg-id-cards-i-will-defy-law.html
Great work ! Why can’t that other fellow ‘Whune?’ have that sort of bottle about him ??
The party’s poll rating almost always goes up when we get publicity of any sort – eg when the Paddy Pantsdown affair broke. Its one of the reasons why Ming caught a chill so quickly this autumn – I cant remember the last time we lost a third of our poll rating over the conference season.
The public are like neglectful lovers – they know they want to be with us but they forget about us all too easily 😉
I’d caution against getting too carried away by these polls. Con 40, LD 18 represents a 5% swing from us to the Tories since the last election. It is the gap between us and the Tories which largely determines how well we do at General Elections (1997 for example where our vote fell but theirs fell faster).
“Blimey, it looks like Ming was more unpopular than anyone thought”
Complete rowlocks. We nearly always go up when we get exposure on the media.
I wouldn’t describe any polls showing us at between 4 and 9 points down on the last election as ‘good news’…
8 – and if those polls turned out to be the actual result in the next general election I would agree with you. We both know, though, that the Lib Dems’ actual performance is likely to exceed all three of those polls’ ratings.