In a recent blog on Prospect, Peter Lilley, the former Conservative MP for Hitchin and Harpenden, explained his support for Theresa May’s statement that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Although a ‘bad deal’ would be more disastrous than no deal at all, the ‘no deal’ scenario should not be viewed through rose-tinted glasses. It is worryingly implied that a Conservative majority would already accepted that it will not be possible for the UK and the EU to come to an agreement in time, and have lost interest in serious negotiations.
The flaw in Peter Lilley’s argument is the belief that in a ‘no deal’ or ‘Hard Brexit’ scenario, that the UK will be able to export to the EU on WTO ‘most favoured nation’ terms. This is improbable for the first argument that the UK is not currently a member of the World Trade Organisation, so there is no legal basis for an expectation to trade on any WTO terms; and for the second argument that it won’t be in the political interests of the EU to consider the UK a ‘most favoured nation’. Peter Lilley himself concedes that for the EU, “politics trumps economics”.
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