We don’t see many posts on Lib Dem Voice about Northern Ireland – maybe because we don’t have many Liberal Democrat members there. So this is an invitation to discuss the increasingly worrying impact of Brexit – and the threat of Brexit – on the economy and security of that beautiful, but little known, part of the UK where 56% voted to stay in the EU.
Martin McGuiness has been telling the media that Northern Ireland should be pressing for a special status within the EU. In The Guardian article today:
“As things sit at the moment we are going to suffer big time,” McGuinness said. “Theresa May says ‘Brexit means Brexit’, but so far as we are concerned Brexit means disaster for the people of Ireland.”
He said he was encouraged that the Democratic Unionists, with whom his party shares power in Belfast, also agreed that Ireland needed to be treated as a special case by Brussels because of the importance of the potential problems – borders, trade, peace and security – presented by Brexit.
And he added that many unionists were as unhappy as republicans at the outcome of the referendum and the risk posed by the restoration of immigration and customs borders, as well as loss of easy access to EU markets.
In the background, of course, is the lurking fear of a return to the Troubles.
The Good Friday agreement enshrined a unique relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic. There are no visible border controls, citizens of Northern Ireland are entitled to Irish passports and the two states are mutually dependent on the free trade between them. In addition there are all the cultural and sporting collaborations between North and South; for example, many sports teams represent the island as a whole.
McGuinness said he was deeply concerned by indications from the Tory leadership that the plan was to leave the customs union. “Any removal from the customs union effectively means we are cut out of a market of 500 million people, yet half an hour down the road they will be able to trade freely with the EU. It would be a devastating blow.” Moreover, some 37% of Northern Ireland’s exports, worth £3.6bn, go to Ireland.
I never imagined that I would write this – but Martin McGuiness is talking a lot of sense.
So what is the Lib Dem view on all this?
* Mary Reid is a contributing editor on Lib Dem Voice. She was a councillor in Kingston upon Thames, where she is still very active with the local party, and is the Hon President of Kingston Lib Dems.
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28 Comments
the lurking fear of a return to the Troubles
It’s a bit off, do you not think, to write this in an article about Martin McGuiness — given that it was McGuiness , when he was commanding the IRA, who was responsible for keeping the Troubles going?
If the Troubles do return it will be thanks to him and his comrades, not Brexit.
“If the Troubles do return it will be thanks to him and his comrades, not Brexit.”
Not so. If Brexit leads to agitation among republican hardliners and dissidents for a return to violence as a political tactic (which it might), it will be the likes of McGuinness – influential republicans committed to the peace process – who will be in a position to moderate and stifle those calls.
If the people of Northern Ireland wish to stay in the EU they know what they need to do. The choice is theirs to make.
I was born in London but live in good ol’ Norn Iron now, I’m studying part-time in Dublin and I work both sides of the border, so I guess I can comment on this with some sort of insight.
Folks here are concerned about the future border situation and Martin McGuiness is voicing what many people feel whether from unionist or nationalist communities. I for one am looking at getting Irish citizenship because it could be the only practical way of continuing cross-border work. There are certainly now voices from all communities here suggesting that we may need to have a border poll at some point, particularly if Scotland flirts with independence again, and I’ve even heard a unionist or two consider the merits of a united Ireland. We must also remember that there are also complexities arising from the Good Friday agreement that could cause problems this side of the border.
Also, as an aside, I think it’s ‘off’ to discount anything that Martin McGuiness says purely because of his history. I am no advocate of his, and I think that relations here would be far better if he and others admitted their IRA involvement and we were allowed to move on. However, he represents communities whose voices need to be heard if we are to continue working towards peace, and most of those whom he speaks for have had nothing to do with the IRA. Since the Good Friday agreement he has been the first to speak out against any of the republican splinter groups.
It was always going to be the case that Brexit would divide the UK. Like Northern Ireland, Scotland and London are also identifiable regions voting to Remain. Each has a devolved layer of government. so a “special arrangement” can be negotiated if the will is there from both sides.
In Northern Ireland’s case, the Republic will be a key player here. Ireland doesn’t want a hard border, so even if free movement of goods, services and people might in theory not be on the table, in practice it stands every chance of evolving that way anyway.
Dav, If our Queen can consign the ‘Troubles’ to the past, can you not try? The world is ‘peppered’ with ‘terrorists’ who became respected leaders….
The EU presents problems for Northern Ireland too. As I understand EU law we couldn’t have a lower rate of VAT there for example. Or lower income tax. But policies like that would make perfect sense both for the British mainland and NI.
The big problem with the eurozone and and the EU generally is that there no common taxation system. For it to work properly taxes need to be raised in the prosperous areas and spent in the poorer areas. The UK with its common taxation system allows us to do all that.
Higher public spending and/or lower taxation in Northern Ireland doesn’t have the same economic effect as it would in the SE of England. There the economy is pretty much running at full capacity so any extra spending, either directly by government, or by the general public (if taxes were lowered) would cause inflation. On the other hand there is lots of slack in the NI economy, so there the effect would be to increase economic activity generally.
The EU/Eurozone needs to learn the same lesson too. We can have lower taxes and higher spending in Greece, Spain, Ireland etc too. There the effect will be to increase economic activity. BUT we can’t do that in Germany, Holland, or Austria because it would cause too much inflation.
The chances of getting German ordoliberal economists to see it this way is slim to non existent – regardless of the party in power there. The people of North Ireland would have a better chance in the UK given that there are at least a few of us who do understand Keynesian economics!
it was the article which brought up the idea of the troubles returning, not me.
I blogged on this previously. We have a sister party in the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, which is in the process of changing leaders, from former Minister David Ford MLA to Deputy Leader Naomi Long MLA.
https://allianceparty.org/article/2016/0010686/long-to-submit-nomination-papers-for-alliance-leader-position
https://allianceparty.org/
Naomi Long was elected as an MP in 2010, defeating DUP leader Robinson, who had served as deputy to the late Ian Paisley. When asked on TV about the Alliance Party’s relationship with the Liberal Democrats she said she thought that Vince Cable would be a good Chancellor of the Exchequer.
The Deputy First Minister met Theresa May when she went to Northern Ireland. He wrote in the New European that leaving the EU would cost Northern Ireland billons and that Theresa May had not made any promises to help. Since then she has made promises to Nissan.
What Theresa May has done is to reshuffle out the Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers, a leaver and reshuffle in James Brokenshire MP for Old Bexley and Sidcup (once held by Ted Heath).
It is clear that the Republic of Ireland does not want to pick up a large financial bill for Northern Ireland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Brokenshire
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordoliberalism
Campaigning as a Young Liberal in the 70s, I very well recall the idealism behind the UK and Ireland becoming members of the European community. A prominent part of this was the hope that membership of a wider entity founded on common interests would dissipate the conflict in Northern Ireland.
In time I believe that common membership of the EU did help facilitate the eventual accommodation that is still working itself out.
During the campaign very many did explain how disastrous Brexit would be for the region, but like a lot else these warnings were rebuffed without reason, so now it is up to the government to respond responsibly. Options are limited. Common membership of the EEA (together with free movement of goods, people, services and capital) would render the issue much less significant; the issue here would be the extent to which the Irish government would be leant upon to represent UK interests in the EU Councils. Special status would effectively separate Northern Ireland from the mainland, but could work, leaving Northern Ireland much more devolved and still part of the EU; naturally if this were proposed, the Scots would immediately and justifiably claim the same status. I suppose a hybrid status could also be proposed with Northern Ireland not a member of the EU but still part of the EEA; again this proposes a customs border between Northern Ireland and England/Wales with Scotland demanding the same status as Northern Ireland.
Millions of decent people voted to leave the EU and Lib Dems think they are racists or to thick to understand the issue’s. You ignore or reject anything the government says about N Ireland and yet you listen to Martin McGuinness – absolutely amazing.
If the people of Northern Ireland believe in the EU they can vote for Irish reunification. As was the case with German re-unification it is inconceivable that NI would be denied EU membership as part of a united Ireland.
Why would the Lib Dems deny them the right to full membership of the EU and fob them off with some EU lite solution?
Similarly if the people of Scotland believe in the EU they can vote for independence and apply for membership.
I don’t understand why the Lib Dems appear to be so against the people of NI and Scotland enjoying full EU membership.
I have written quite a bit on this and actually have an article in today’s Belfast Telegraph:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/why-brexit-could-leave-voters-east-of-the-bann-with-that-sinking-feeling-35134628.html
John Peters – Indeed.
Ciaran – are you a Lib Dem? Would you like to write a post for us?
““Brexit means disaster for the people of Ireland.” Do you agree?”
No. No I do not agree. The notion that the only condition under which Northern Ireland can prosper in peace is via Britain within the EU is one that I find absurd.
“fear of a return to the Troubles” – wasn’t he part of those “troubles”?
But no, I don’t agree that Brexit will harm Northern Ireland. In fact, I think the Irish Republic would be wise to follow our lead and leave the EU too.
There will be teething problems for sure, but in the long-term, it will be far better for any nation to be a democratic sovereign self governing state making its own trade deal with the rest of the world rather than shackled to an undemocratic economic basket case that’s policies have already ruined some of it members.
Mary is right that we don’t see many posts on LDV about Northern Ireland and it is perhaps more immediately and directly impacted by the fallout from the Brexit referendum than any other region of the UK. The article in the Belfast Telegraph by Ciaran McGonagle above gives a good account of explains in why.
What happens in Ireland – North and South – has always effected the whole of the UK. Lord Bew in his recent book ‘Churchill and Ireland’ gives a well researched account of the negotiations leading to the creation of Northern Ireland. Constitutional change in Ireland has often been fractious. It is good to see that Sinn Fein and Dup seem prepared to work together in developing special arrangements for NI.
John Peters
“I don’t understand why the Lib Dems appear to be so against the people of NI and Scotland enjoying full EU membership.”
Understand that the Liberal Democrats want all people in the UK to enjoy full membership. However with this referendum vote it is necessary to develop a relationship with the EU that reduces the great political and economic damage that leaving the EU creates.
Yes. Quite so. Another example of the way in which Remain and Leave neglected to consider how things might turn out. The simplistic question in the Referendum did not allow for any ‘Yes but….’ or ‘No, but…..’. The future of Ireland as a whole, of the Republic and of Northern Ireland was doubtless considered ‘over there’ but certainly not ‘over here’. It will serve David Cameron right if Witney is lost on Thursday, and Mrs May needs to be very careful in her Brexit campaign. It is to be hoped that David Davis and Liam Fox do not plough on regardless of consequences.
jedibeeftrix: There are three principles at play here: freedom of east-west movement, freedom of north-south movement, and the government’s desire to end cross-channel free movement.
Brexit means, necessarily, that one of these principles has to give. If the government wants to insist on ending freedom of movement to the EU, they will necessarily need to create a barrier either between the two countries on the island (thus breaking the promise to republicans in the GFA) or in the Irish Sea (thus breaking the promise to unionists), otherwise there will be a flood of services, goods, and people across a border that is non-existent.
This, of course, is a problem that existed prior to our accession to the EU. Indeed, it’s the exact reason why Ireland withdrew their first EEC accession application after the Grand Non.
This is one of the many impossibilities that the Leave campaign, in their nationalistic fervour bordering on the narcissistic, refused to even acknowledge before the vote, and are refusing to acknowledge even now.
Sarah,
you are right to highlight the three principles around freedom of movement at play here. Brexit reopens the basis of the devolved settlements for both NI and Scotland (and Wales to a lesser extent).
Special arrangements for NI/Scotland (e,g. powers to negotiate EEA/EFTA membership for devolved regions) while maintaining the integrity of the UK customs and currency union do indeed point to some form of work permit scheme for Non-UK/Irish citizens (both EU and Non-EU within England and Wales) and the monitoring and enforcement that come with such schemes.
on the island (thus breaking the promise to republicans in the GFA) or in the Irish Sea (thus breaking the promise to unionists), otherwise there will be a flood of services, goods, and people across a border that is non-existent
Not at all. The solution is quite simple: Irish and UK border officials work together and share information so that the Common Travel Area becomes the border unit.
See for example:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/09/britain-to-push-post-brexit-uk-immigration-controls-back-to-irish-border
Brexit could be the best thing ever to happen to Ireland; imagine if Dublin were the only financial centre both inside the EU and with a seamless common travel area encompassing it and the UK, and with extremely competitive low corporation tax rates to boot. Add in the rich cultural landscape and the drink, and why would any multinational corporation put their headquarters anywhere else? Why would they even look at Frankfurt or Paris? It’ll be Dublin all the way, baby.
Ireland has every incentive to co-operate with the UK to make this happen. It’ll be Celtic Tiger 2.0.
(As for cross-border smuggling of goods: that already happens, so there are already procedures in place to deal with it.)
Dav,
this article gives a flavour of the kind of problems experienced by other EU/Non-EU neighbouring states https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/17/ireland-brexit-headache-border.
this article gives a flavour of the kind of problems experienced by other EU/Non-EU neighbouring states
Shouldn’t be a problem, though, as neither the UK nor Ireland are in the Schengen zone, so there’s no requirement on Ireland to operate border checks as that agreement would necessitate.
Goods with different tariffs could easily be dealt with by the same mechanisms that currently deal with cross-border petrol smuggling: spotting when suspiciously cheap goods come up for same and finding out where they are coming from.
The issues with people can, as mentioned, be dealt with by ensuring co-operation between UK and Irish border organisations; an EU national resident in Ireland will be able to enter the UK easily, yes, but then so would one living in France if, as seems likely, there is a visa waiver system in operation; but they would be unable to legally work, rent property, etc, so what would be the point?
Dav,
Croatia, which the referenced article, leads on, is not in the Schengen zone.
You end your comment asking what would be the point? Same point that motivates 11m+ undocumented aliens to cross the Mexican border to live and work in United States and the estimated 1m+ that do the same in the UK.