Good news this week from Duxford in Cambridgeshire, where Peter McDonald won a County Council seat with a massive 26% swing! Congratulations to him and his team.
Duxford (Cambridgeshire) result:
LDEM: 59.6% (+26.3)
CON: 40.4% (-14.7)Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
No Lab (-7.6) and Grn (-3.9) as prev.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 28, 2020
An even bigger swing to us in Whittlesford in South Cambridgeshire, but not quite enough to unseat the Conservative in a two horse race.
Whittlesford (South Cambridgeshire) result:
CON: 55.2% (-8.1)
LDEM: 44.8% (+30.3)Conservative HOLD.
No Lab (-16.0) and Grn (-6.2) as prev.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 28, 2020
From zero to 7% in Gwersyllt North in Wrexham
Gwersyllt North (Wrexham) result:
PC: 36.6% (+36.6)
LAB: 16.8% (-10.7)
CON: 15.1% (-5.0)
IND (Davies): 9.9% (+9.9)
IND (McCan): 8.3% (+8.3)
LDEM: 7.9% (+7.9)
IND (Hay): 3.7% (+3.7)
GRN: 1.7% (+1.7)Plaid Cymru GAIN from Independent.
No other Ind(s) (-52.4) as prev.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 27, 2020
Modest showings in Hillingdon East in Hillingdon and in Clayton and Openshaw in Manchester
Hillingdon East (Hillingdon) result:
CON: 68.8% (+9.1)
LAB: 23.5% (-12.7)
LDEM: 4.1% (+4.1)
GRN: 2.8% (+2.8)
UKIP: 0.8% (+0.8)Conservative HOLD.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 27, 2020
Clayton & Openshaw (Manchester) result:
IND: 47.9% (+3.4)
LAB: 43.6% (-1.4)
CON: 4.1% (+0.6)
LDEM: 2.3% (-1.0)
GRN: 2.1% (-1.6)Independent GAIN from Labour.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 28, 2020
No Lib Dem candidate in Crewe South in Cheshire East nor in Millfield (Blaby)
Crewe South (Cheshire East) result:
LAB: 54.1% (-7.5)
CON: 35.8% (+10.3)
GRN: 4.4% (+4.4)
IND (Cartlidge): 3.6% (+3.6)
IND (Silvester): 2.2% (+2.2)Labour HOLD.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 28, 2020
Millfield (Blaby) result:
LAB: 52.2% (-1.0)
CON: 43.0% (-3.8)
GRN: 4.8% (+4.8)Labour HOLD.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 28, 2020
* Mary Reid is a contributing editor on Lib Dem Voice. She was a councillor in Kingston upon Thames, where she is still very active with the local party, and is the Hon President of Kingston Lib Dems.
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16 Comments
This was the usual mixed bag, 2 brilliant results, 1 above average & 3 moderately bad. If you are thinking that we only stood in 5 Seats, thats true but in one of the two where we didnt stand this time, we did stand last time. That counts as a loss of Vote in my book.
With 17 relevant results so far this Year I think we can safely say that we are doing slightly better than Last May. That does not mean that the Headlines in May will be anything like last Years. We may make small Gains but even if we do they will be ignored in favour of London where the big News will be Labour winning handsomely.
Our glacially slow recovery continues but no Headlines for Us this Year.
This constituency is under 10 (I’d guess 8) miles from mine .
A modest showing……
Clayton & Openshaw (Manchester) result:
IND: 47.9% (+3.4)
LAB: 43.6% (-1.4)
CON: 4.1% (+0.6)
LDEM: 2.3% (-1.0)
GRN: 2.1% (-1.6)
Independent GAIN from Labour.
Some realism please
2.3% isn’t ‘moderately bad’. It’s not even flying the flag at half mast. It’s appalling.
Anybody using the Liberal Democrat party label ought to have to give a commitment to put some work in. I guess there’s been more waiting at home for the Dominos pizza than using a bit of shoe leather to put in some canvassing.
Do please correct me if I’m wrong.
Manchester: the seat has been won by an independent. As regular byelection watchers will know the presence of a well known local independent candidate blows everything out of the water. Local Elections can still be just that, local, and I’m sure our team in Didsbury will be very pleased they are no longer the only opposition available to the Labour hegemony at City Hall.
@David Raw
As you know I have a slight disagreement with you over this. It’s far better that we stand than we don’t even if we only get 7 votes as the punters will notice if we are not on the ballot paper when they traipsed down the polling station.
However it is also far better if we put in effort. It has to be said though if you start off at 3% it is not necessarily encouraging to spend every waking moment – or indeed any — braving the elements.
Although they do some ALDC, regional parties, bigger nearby local parties need to offer more help and advice and support on how a low cost high impact campaign can be run and be a net positive for the local party in getting members, helpers, deliverers, starting local campaigns on issues etc.regarless of the result.
Has there been some agreement with Labour and Greens in Cambridgeshire which might explain their absence from the two elections there?
“Slightly better than last May?” Our base vote without (much of) a campaign is now about 4-5%. But good campaigns in areas where we are credible can do well and though these figures do not show it the Cambridgeshire result was in quite a large division – we won by 1607 to 1090. But we will do well to make many gains in May or even avoid losses – the Tories are on their honeymoon.
I can see that I have to explain more of what I mean when I say that we are currently doing slightly better than we did last May.
What I try to work out is The Equivalent National Vote share, an estimate of our Vote share if every Seat had an Election at once, its the only way to compare one Years results with anothers.
However, just because we are doing slightly better on this measure than in 2019 does not mean similar results, let alone better ones. There are 2 big factors at play here, how we do compared to The Tories (our main rivals in Local Government Seats) & how we do compared to how we did 4 Years ago, the last time the Seats were fought.
On the first factor, we are up very slightly on 2019 but The Tories are up more.
On the second, part of why we made so many gains last Year was because we did so badly in 2015 (The Coalition, again).
We may make small Gains or small Losses this Year but there wont be anything with “News Value”. The Big Story will be Labour Winning The London Mayor again.
No Gary.
As recently as 13th December South Cambs labour were lambasting us for having split the remain vote, when we came within 3000 votes of winning the Parliamentary seat from third place. They just couldn’t be bothered to put up a candidate because they knew they had no chance of winning against us and they do t have an organisation here.
These by elections were caused by the resignation of one of the few Tory district councillors left in The Southern part of South Cambs
Sorry – pressed post too soon
– who was also a county councillor. We had not targeted the seat in 2018 because of his local popularity (and because targeting 32/45 was hard enough). We failed to win the district seat because the replacement Tory was a long-standing parish councillor in the main village in the ward and so had personal support – many people who voted for him in that village also voted for our LibDem candidate as he is also known as a great local campaigner.
Thank you Mary. Well done
But the local elections are still 2 months away. By then the government will be nearly 5 months old already. John Major’s government was already unpopular 5 months after the 1992 election.
Already there’s a full-blown scandal breaking out over Priti Patel and Sir Philip Rutnam. The Tories’ slide into unpopularity in the 1992 Parliament began with the scandal caused by David Mellor’s antics. But the Priti Patel scandal is rather more serious.
“the Tories are on their honeymoon.” Talking about honeymoons, the current Prime Minister’s antics makes David Mellor look like a plaster saint.
“Mystery surrounding who paid for Boris Johnson’s Mustique …www.telegraph.co.uk
13 Feb 2020 – “The mystery surrounding who paid for Boris Johnson’s luxury Caribbean holiday deepened last night after a millionaire businessman’s named …”
Meanwhile. “Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thought to have contracted coronavirus in Iran prison, says husband”. The Independent, 29 February.
@Alex Macfie.
Actually The Tory decline in 1992 was fairly gradual – 20% over a Year, roughly.
We can always hope but this Government have already cocked-up any number of things without it damaging their Polling Leads. Most Voters stop thinking about Politics after a General Election, with a sigh of relief, they will be reluctant to re-engage.
I cant wait for someone to post up the votes cast .
It will show up the lack of direction…
Malc Poll
The party NEEDS to stop focusing on students and middle managers !
All the pain coming is as in another thread I dared to be a brexiteer . The party took a view on the wrong side of that ! , and the northern electorate are punishing us !