Liberal Democrat PPC for Gordon is receiving offers of help from people who campaigned for a No vote in the independence referendum last September. These include supporters of both Labour and Conservative parties who are prepared to vote for her to stop Alex Salmond’s return to Westminster.
There will be no official pact between the parties but Christine won a lot of friends during the referendum campaign with her infectious enthusiasm and endless energy so it’s hardly surprising that they think she’s more than a match for Salmond.
Scotland on Sunday has the story:
Despite the Conservatives and Labour ruling out a deal to thwart Salmond’s general election ambitions, local party activists say they will back the Lib Dem candidate Christine Jardine, because she is the former first minister’s nearest challenger.
Jardine, a former journalist, is defending Gordon for the Lib Dems following the retirement of Sir Malcolm Bruce.
Although Jardine is defending a majority of almost 7,000, Salmond has been widely tipped to win the seat as Lib Dem support plummets and the SNP benefits from a post-referendum surge.
But the strong No vote recorded in the area has given local Better Together activists hope that they can work together to keep Salmond out.
The result in Aberdeenshire as a whole saw a 60 per cent to 40 per cent rejection of independence.
According to Lib Dem deputy chairman for the constituency Marion Ewenson members of other parties are pledging their support for Jardine as a “stop Alex Salmond candidate”.
Ewenson said: “We had a very active and successful cross party Better Together group in the constituency and people are not as pleased that Alex Salmond is standing as the SNP would like everyone to believe. You have to remember there was an overwhelming rejection of independence in Aberdeenshire and all he seems to want to do is keep pushing the same agenda.”
She added: “A lot of people in the Better Together Group were impressed by the way Christine campaigned which is why they are getting behind her even if they are normally supporters of other parties.”
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25 Comments
Excellent news. Suddenly I am thinking that maybe she will do it. I can understand why someone would vote for the SNP, but isn’t it a bit strange for a political party to hold separation from a democratic union as their raison d’être?
Dear oh, the LDs seem to have emerged as the Liberal Unionist and Imperialist wing of something else.
What party have I been supporting for all of these years?
And Eddie, I don’t understand your comment – why shouldn’t a party be committed peacefully to self detrmination and constitutional change?
Well said , Eddie. ‘We disagree with and intend to ignore the majority of our fellow scots’ is a very odd platform.
Seems much of the press has bought into the myth that Salmond will just walk into Parliament , I’m sure Christine will put a stop to that. Hope and tolerance, not more division – a positive Liberal message if ever there was one.
Thanks ATF. I’ve just liked her Facebook page. Yes, I am English, but if the first thing someone reaches for to discredit my opinion is my nationality then it says more about the strength of their arguments than mine.
If the campaign is made primarily about Christine Jardine and Gordon then she can do it.
Christine Jardine can do it……………….remove the ego the size of a Halloween pumkin from Gordon Constituency…..once and for all. Goofd luck Christine……..well done so far…….but beware the dark side of the S.N.P………..ignore that lot
Well done to those activists of the ‘Better together’ group for putting principle before party loyalty.
In this article the word ‘Salmond’ appears 7 times and the word ‘Jardine’ appears 4 times.
So which word is the average reader most likely to remember?
Good luck to them. It’s a shame there can’t be a formal pact in this one seat. But I guess it would be used as a propaganda coup elsewhere. I sincerely hope Gordon voters tactically wipe the smile off Salmonds face.
If we cannot offer direct help ( maybe because of helping in other target seats) does her campaign need money? or well funded? If in need of funds, maybe others can end a tenner ( or more!) every little helps 🙂
It rather looks as if what I said on here 4 weeks ago is starting to happen:
“In a period of 4 to 5 party politics, with tactical voting going to be bigger than ever next May, I think Salmond standing helps Christine’s chances, not hinders them.”
and
“Unless you think that Salmond is going to get 45%+ of the vote anyway, the more it is seen as a two horse race, with one high profile candidate a lot of people may want to see defeated, the better for us. If Salmond is genuinely a “marmite politician” (I’ve no idea if he is) then having him as your opponent when you are seen to be in a clear 2nd position could be a good thing.”
https://www.libdemvoice.org/game-on-in-gordon-liberal-democrat-christine-jardine-has-to-defend-seat-against-former-first-minister-salmond-43671.html
Good luck to Christine.
Before everyone starts getting a little carried away, the last poll I saw for Scotland had the LibDems at about 3% and the SNP just over 50%. Salmond will walk it – otherwise he wouldn’t be standing.
@malc
But “Scotland” doesn’t vote. People vote in individual constituencies. Have you any polling for the Gordon constituency?
If and when there is any, the one thing of which I am certain is that it will show it is a two-horse race beween Lib Dems and SNP. I’m sure you would agree there.
Simon.
Oh dear, we have lost then. Labour voters now prefer SNP to the Lib Dems (going into coalition with the Tories ugh etc) whilst the Tory vote is holding up in Scotland. I(f we think we are coming out of Scotland with more than 2 or 3 MPs we are really day dreaming and once again ignoring the reality of the situation..
@theakes
So you are saying that there isn’t going to be tactical voting – or maybe that it is only going to be happen to our disadvantage such as clearly happened in the two recent UKIP-won by-elections?
If so, where is your evidence for that assertion?
@Simon Shaw,
“But “Scotland” doesn’t vote. People vote in individual constituencies. Have you any polling for the Gordon constituency?”
Yes, because it overlaps the Scottish Parliament constituency of Aberdeenshire East, where Mr Salmond has a 15,000 majority.
Malcolm Bruce’s majority in the Gordon constituency wasn’t that big, and Ms Jardine is an unknown who on her own failed to reach 2000 votes in her last attempt to become elected.
@Colin
I asked whether there has been any polling for the Gordon constituency, rather than for Scotland as a whole.
I think you are saying the answer is no.
Also, you say that Malcolm Bruce’s majority in the Gordon constituency “wasn’t that big”. I had a look and was pleasantly surprised to find that he won in 2010 by a very healthy margin of 36% to 22%. Looking at the 2010 results I would have said that the biggest danger for us before Alex Salmond threw his hat in the ring was that SNP, Labour and Conservatives all secured between 19% and 22% in 2010, meaning that tactical voting might have been difficult to secure.
With Salmond standing for the SNP Gordon Constituency has manifestly become a two horse race. SNP in a strong position with Lib Dems being the challenger to him. Now it may be that he can secure 45%+ of the vote anyway, but unless he can he may find that those who dislike him coalesce around one candidate – and that would be Christine.
I would however agree with you that Alex Salmond is likely to be better known in the constituency than Christine. Your mistake is in thinking that this is an advantage for him.
@simon shaw. I used to live in Aberdeenshire, I predict that the lib dems will come forth in Gordon.
Simon Shaw said:
I would however agree with you that Alex Salmond is likely to be better known in the constituency than Christine. Your mistake is in thinking that this is an advantage for him.
According to ICM he is not only well known – he is popular too with a +23% rating for doing a good job (Nick Clegg wasn’t polled but I suspect it wouldn’t make for good reading):
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/scottish-party-leaders-who-are-they-how-are-they-doing
Salmond and Sturgeon are electoral assets for their party – unlike some leaders we could mention.
Mr Wallace: My prediction is that if you turn out to be wrong, you will not be back here admitting that you were mistaken.
@Mr Wallace
“I used to live in Aberdeenshire, I predict that the lib dems will come forth in Gordon.”
If by “come forth” you mean the Lib Dems will come forward and win, then I think you could be right.
If you meant “come 4th” then either you or the bookies have got things seriously wrong. They currently have the Lib Dems as over 5 times more likely than the Conservatives to win Gordon and as over 7 times more likely than Labour to win.
Martin
I doubt it will become a two horse race between SNP and the LibDems, because I think both Tory and Labour voters will think they can beat the LibDems. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see the LibDems finish 4th in Gordon.
Simon Shaw
To win Gordon I would agree with the bookies that the LibDems are clear 2nd favourites. If the LibDem vote holds they will win and this can’t be said of the Tories or Labour. However, I think there is more chance of the LibDem vote falling off a cliff, so the contest for 2nd could be very close between the 3 main English parties. For me the only sure thing is the SNP will win, as the 1/7 odds indicate.
I assume Simon Shaw will put his money where his mouth is and place a hefty sum at Ladbrokes on Christine to win.
At current odds of 5-1 he’ll make a tidy profit if his prediction is correct.
He’ll also help to shift the odds as Ladbrokes currently have Alex Salmond at 1-7 clear favourite to win… meaning Gordon Lib. Dems. can then dig out the old ‘Bookies slash the odds’ artwork that we used to use so successfully in the good old days when we won parliamentary by-elections instead of polling 1%.
Dan Falchikov 5th Jan ’15 – 11:52pm
“…….Salmond and Sturgeon are electoral assets for their party – unlike some leaders we could mention.”
Dan, thank you for pointing this out. I do hope that people will listen to you.
We have a mad situation at present in which key members of our party continually tell us how terrible the Edinburgh Government has been, just as they did before the elections for Scotland’s Parliament. That election was a huge triumph for the SNP and a humiliation for Liberal Democrats in Scotland.
We are now at around 3% in the polls and the SNP are around 50% but still they keep telling us in LDV how unpopular the SNP are.
Some Liberal Democrats in Scotland thought it was a grand idea to stand shoulder to shoulder with all sorts of Unionists in the referendum and think because their rag bag of reactionaries got 55% this was somehow a great victory for
Liberal Democrats.
Did they not think beyond the referendum and consider what impact lining up with Unionists and worse would have on people who used to vote for us?
@Simon Shaw “I used to live in Aberdeenshire, I predict that the lib dems will come forth in Gordon.”
If by “come forth” you mean the Lib Dems will come forward and win, then I think you could be right.
If you meant “come 4th” then either you or the bookies have got things seriously wrong. They currently have the Lib Dems as over 5 times more likely than the Conservatives to win Gordon and as over 7 times more likely than Labour to win.”
I might very well be wrong, but I just can’t see how the Lib Dems can win Gordon. I could easily be wrong about 4th place mind you, but I think even 2nd place for the Lib Dems is fairly unlikely, never mind winning.
The results last time were:
LIB 36.03%
NAT 22.20%
LAB 20.11%
CON 18.68%
OTH 2.97%
I really can’t see the Lib Dems keeping much more than 1/3rd of their vote in Gordon this time. In Aberdeenshire everyone who supports the Tories (farmers) votes for them and won’t change, everyone else pretty much hates them and the Lib Dems will (and have been so far) seriously punished by the electorate in Scotland for being in coalition with the Tories.
The Tories are really disliked here by pretty much everyone bar their diehard supporters who won’t change. Labour’s vote could also collapse in Scotland but I really don’t think the Conservative vote out there will collapse here. A lot of the rural farming areas out there are strongly Conservative. So yeah, maybe 3rd place for the Lib Dems in Gordon.
Electoral Calculus is predicting 3rd place for the Lib Dems in Gordon:
Predicted Votes
LIB 16.23%
NAT 52.84%
LAB 2.93%
CON 17.32%
OTH 5.72%
UKIP 4.96%
I could well eat my words there as Baxtor’s prediction also seems entirely plausable to me.