My subconscious is telling me that it’s a Bank Holiday Monday. Sadly, it isn’t…
2 big stories
Whilst the Government talk about relaxing restrictions, the public seem likely to vote to demur from a return to normality. With less than 10% support for reopening pubs, stadiums and nightclubs, and just 11% support reopening restaurants, it’s clear that, even if you allow such things to reopen, there just won’t be enough potential custom to allow them to survive, let alone thrive.
In another sign that any economic recovery is going to faltering at best, a report compiled by Deloitte indicates that business confidence is at the lowest level since the series of quarterly surveys began in 2007 (pedant note: not an all time low, as the Guardian’s headline writer rather lazily claims). Less investment, fewer new staff hired, means a hole in Government income and… well, what indeed? But the Prime Minister has said that austerity is not on the cards. Cue a hurried search for a thesaurus?
2 social media posts
Matthew Green is pessimistic about any economic recovery too…
And this leads to a third problem, which is the biggest of all. The world is coming to the end of one of its 40-year growth cycles, and the crisis is about to cause a deep unravelling of the growth model that drove it. They old tricks don’t work any more, just like Keynesian stimulus did not work in the 1970s.
Meanwhile, on Twitter, Layla Moran demonstrates why opening schools might not be the quick win that the Government thinks it is…
We need to take a cautious approach to reopening schools. I've previously called on Government to be clear about the criteria it is using. What we need to avoid is parents and teachers feeling that they are under increased risk. https://t.co/Tw9ojA4qez
— Layla Moran 🔶 (@LaylaMoran) May 3, 2020
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9 Comments
Cheer up Mark, deferred Bank Holiday due in 4 days.
As far as the percentage of the public not supporting re-opening pubs etc so what? if the Government deems it safe to relax restrictions, in whatever way, then businesses allowed to re-open can decide whether they want to do so and members of the public can decide whether they want to patronise them. Liberal principles are that, as far as possible, individuals should be able to decide how to live their lives. Then, assuming infection rates don’t increase as a result of re-opening public confidence will increase.
Andrew Tampion 4th May ’20 – 8:08am……….. Liberal principles are that, as far as possible, individuals should be able to decide how to live their lives. Then, assuming infection rates don’t increase as a result of re-opening public confidence will increase………
I thought that was libertarian ( People should be able to do whatever they want as long as their actions do not hurt others). not liberal?
Your second sentence has a BIG word,,,’assuming’…the sarcastic definition comes to mind..
I agree with Andrew.
Expats what do you think the liberal position is? Is Libertarian-ism just one end of the liberal spectrum? I will need to double check back to Mark Pack’s Liberal Philosophy emails.
The endless Covid Babble from the BBC obscures rather than clarifies. The facts are very simple. Isolation is the only sure protection. Precautions such as PPE and distancing may prevent infection if you are lucky. Otherwise the virus will spread and the infection is mild, severe or fatal depending on your pre-existing health.
The health care priorities are clear. Keep infections below intensive care capacity limits. Find treatments to reduce severity, Get a vaccine asap. Testing will help but it only provides a temporary snapshot and is only of use if it facilitates decisions and actions.
Lockdown has achieved the first health care priority, The plan from here is to relax the lockdown until we are close to care capacity but still in control. More will be infected and more will die but that is inevitable. Individuals need to decide how to proceed.
It is very clear that many activities will not survive unless people decide to accept high risk and the government allows them to proceed – subject to the overall rate of infection remaining within control. All of this will continue until herd immunity is achieved, naturally or by vaccine assuming immunity is possible with this virus.
Expats
I am not prepared to debate with people who hide behind a pseudonym. Publish your comments under your real name and I will respond.
Andrew Tampion 4th May ’20 – 12:34pm…..Expats…….I am not prepared to debate with people who hide behind a pseudonym. Publish your comments under your real name and I will respond………..
Perhaps I should call myself Tom, Dick, Harry or even Freddie; would that make you happir (or wiser)?
Those running this site know who I am…
@ Andrew,
My point is that, if you effectively oblige a business to open by taking away Government support, but the public shun it through caution, that business will fail. That’s not to say that any particular course of action could, or should, be followed – I merely make the point that the Government has effectively had its hand forced by the public’s response to the crisis, and that the stance of the public towards any relaxation will probably have more impact on business prospects than the act of relaxation in itself.
Mark
In the first place I am not satisfied that the lockdown is proportionate.
Secondly you are assuming that the Government chooses to withdraw support from businesses in sectors allowed to reopen. But there is no reason why support couldn’t be maintain either in part or in whole. Indeed in the case of pubs and restaurants if social distancing remains in force until 2021 then the number of people allowed in to pubs and restaurants will be reduced probably by 50 – 75% so unless the Government wants prices to be quadrupled then some form of ongoing support seems necessary.
Third the current lockdown is causing immense damage to the economy which may in the long term do as much or more damage to peoples health as the virus. If, as predicted, no vaccine is available until 2021 then your stance implies carrying on the lockdown unchanged until then. Do you really think that is sustainable?
Fourth in any event as I understand it the proposal would be for a phased sector by sector re-opening with pubs and restaurants being amongst the last to re-open. In that case if other esctors re-open safely and with no significant increase infection then support for re-opening is likely to increase.
Am I the only one to have noticed that the NHS has been overwhelmed for a long time?