Ealing Southall result: 6% swing from Labour to Lib Dem

Results just in:

Labour Party: 15,188 (41%) -8% compared to 2005
Nigel Bakhai, Liberal Democrats: 10,118 (28%) +4%
David Cameron’s Conservatives: 8,230 (23%)

Huge congratulations to Nigel Bakhai, the Ealing Southall Lib Dems, and all those who helped the campaign, on achieving a 6% swing from Labour, and keeping David Cameron’s Tories firmly back in third place.

Read more by or more about .
This entry was posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections.
Advert

50 Comments

  • A fairly good result for us – but I would be gutted if I were a Tory.

  • Hmmm Mr Boothroyd – yes they were good results for Labour, but the Lib Dems were the only party to improve their position. Votes and positions up, Labour votes down (but not to the next election losing levels).

    Shouldn’t you be on ConHome – they’ve surely got huge wounds to lick where your usual dose of aspic will no doubt go down a treat.

  • What’s interesting (to me) about the result is that it’s despite a really quite lacklustre Labour campaign (and indeed candidate).

    Their literature was poor and they delivered less than half what the Tories put out, let alone what we did.

    The one thing I thought they did well was polling day: no tellers but absolutely swarms of Labour knockers up (presumably all the MPs’ staff & other payroll campaigners).

    Conclusions?

    (a) It’s a pretty naturally Labour area, so Labour could still win by working hard to get their vote out.

    (b) The Tories’ energetic and vocal – if misjudged – campaign did enough to prevent the required squeeze on their vote.

    (c) Despite an incredibly short campaign, we can be proud of the campaign we delivered (literally!) and it’s heartening to see the fantastic turnout from helpers from across the country – we have no trouble motivating our troops!

    It’s fun now looking at all those Tory claims that they’d win / push us into third …

  • It was hard to judge there. Many voters were just too damned polite. We did ok but let’s not make more of it than it was. Think back to Brent East where we won from a similar position – the big problem was the short campaign.

    I suspect they will all be three weeks from now on.

  • Yes, I agree with Anthony and most others on the campaign and polling day. Labour clearly managed the ‘community vote’ well. Bounced into a three week election very difficult to break down for Lib Dems or indeed anyone else.

    Think the Tories were doing well, they’d persuaded the press and created an image enough to split the anti Labour vote, achieved the defection of 5 Lab cllrs -good until the wheels came off of Tony Lit (Tory Lite) carpetbagging candidate with no roots – but not before the postal vote had been cast…

    In the circumstances good Lib Dem result – but not sensational – Labour kept their two seats but hardly a ringing endorsement – don’t expect an early General election.

    Tories are the major losers – massive investment and loss of credibility – comments on their home site are priceless! Great laugh!

  • I think this is a great result and about as much as we could have expected given the short run-in period.

    I’m sure that Tories will be waking up and wondering where it all went wrong last night.

    As for us – it wasn’t a win but it is a strong result for us to build on whenever Gordon next goes to the country and that’s good enough for me!

  • Did anyone notice sky news last night were reporting the paries in the wrong order

    They had:
    CON 8,230
    LAB 15,188
    LD 10,118

    Looks to me that the graphics team went to bed too early and put up the order Sky expected i.e. Tory victory.

  • 10 or perhaps that they were reported by alphabetical order of party?

  • “The one thing I thought they did well was polling day: no tellers but absolutely swarms of Labour knockers up (presumably all the MPs’ staff & other payroll campaigners).”

    All the phone canvassing they did before the incumbant was even dead was being put to good use.

    “(b) The Tories’ energetic and vocal – if misjudged – campaign did enough to prevent the required squeeze on their vote.”

    The Tories I think were very lucky that it was only a 3 week campaign. Another week and they may well have been in real trouble.

  • A great campaign by any standard – we held up really well considering just how much effort the tories were putting in to misleading the electorate that they were the challengers.

    I do wonder how big the majority would have been if people were less taken in by the Tory rhetoric. People on the doorstep took some convincing where i was that we really were second.

    Well done Nigel!

  • Re; 5
    We are always in danger of misjudging Labour’s campaign if we simply count (and contrast) the number and quality of leaflets that they’ve delivered. What they do really well – and a lot of – is telephone canvassing. Based on better quality voter data this enbables them to target calls and get their vote out – increasingly important when there is a low turnout.

  • Cheltenham Robin 20th Jul '07 - 1:13pm

    Does anyone know where all of the Tory bloggers have gone from this site?

    They have spent the last week on here telling us how badly we were going to do.

    Maybe they are still hung-over from their celebration party.

  • imgladiwenttoealingsouthall 20th Jul '07 - 3:11pm

    18 – “Does anyone know where all of the Tory bloggers have gone from this site?”

    I know, its brilliant!

    15 -“My favourite moment watching the by-election on TV last night was Grant Shapps squirming in front of TV cameras desparately trying to spin what he could see as a Conservative failure.”

    Mine was actually the interview with Tony Lit himself. He was bloody terrible. Cross between a stuttering version of David Cameron and that guy who went for an interview as a cleaner at the BBC and was put live on news 24. Poor old Tony(and Davey C), he clearly got the shock of his life:):)

    All together now: YOU’RE LIT AND YOU KNOW YOU ARE. YOU’RE LIT AND YOU KNOW YOU ARE.

    Well done Nigel, a top man.

  • Daniel Bowen 20th Jul '07 - 3:28pm

    21 fol de rol….

  • WITH David Cameron’s name on ballot paper – 3rd place. WITHOUT David Cameron’s name on ballot paper – 3rd place. Let’s face it – we just don’t like the Tories!

  • Tim Roll-Pickering needs to learn a few history lessons.

    When the Conservatives threw Labour out of office in 1979, they had, just two years previously, won byelections in mining seats very similar to Sedgefield – Workington and Ashfield, to be precise. I suggest, therefore, that if David Cameron wants to become Prime Minister in 2 years time, those are the kind of performances he needs to be achieving at this stage in the Parliament.

    In Southall, it proved impossible to shift the Asian block vote. No-one else has ever done so, why is it such a failure that the Lib Dems didn’t succeed on Thursday?

    Cameron made a total ass of himself. First of all his personal selection of a candidate who had only a month previously appeared with Tony Blair at a Labour Party fundraiser. Secondly, parading himself with a group of Labour defectors of the most dubious kind. Thirdly, having the bare-faced hubris to believe that he could break the Asian block vote.

    Cameron should also be worried about the strong Lib Dem showing in the “Ealing” wards, three out of four of which are classic Labour/Tory marginals with no history of Lib Dem success..

  • The Lib Dems may have done well accroding to their supporters but there are two questions that they need to think about:

    1. What would have been the outcome had there been no donation “Scandal” in regar to the donation?

    2. What would have happened if there was no Paul Seery campaigning hard against them?

    The latter one I will answer with pride. During this by-election I delivered 13,000+ pieces of literature thoughought the ealing Southall seat. This included all the wards in the seat and all but 7 yes 7 polling districts in the seat also.

    My efforts were so magnificant that it recieved such high praise not only from other conservative activists but from PPCs (Marke Clarke, Louise Blagshaw) and also MPs (Justine Greening, Grant Shapps etc.) that helped out there.

    Whist it may not have been the best of results the Conservatives have found two positive things from this by-election: Me and the folder of LD leaflets and campaigning booklet booklet that I gave to them as apresent when I first came out to help.

    The bottom line is that this by-election may not have been one but come a general election it is the Conservative Party that will challenge the Labour government and not the Liberal Democrats.

  • Hywel Morgan 20th Jul '07 - 9:41pm

    Were you at it full time Paul? 13000 leaflets in a 15+day campaign In a pretty concentrated constituency like that you should be looking at 1000-1200 a day at a minimum

  • David Morton 20th Jul '07 - 9:58pm

    I read somewhere that at 5.4% swing from lab to LD this is the smallest anti government swing in a by election since 1982? ( Beaconsfield ) Is this true? Even if not 5.4% is pretty sm,all beer by recent standards and against a third term Government. Does anyone have serious analysis of why Labour did so well?

  • Yes Mr Keating it is me and in answer to your question yes but I have some unfinished buisness to deal with first.

    And Mr Morgan: Yes I damn well was. I did about 12 hours a day during the campaign which must toal in all about approx. 240 hours all together. In fact there were was one day where I delivered 1,300 leaflets.

    The bottom line is that i worked my arse off and although it did not help the conservatives win the seat I played some part in at least stopping you lot from winning the seat.

  • Keep up your work Paul!My experience has shown the more people find out about the Tories the less they like them.

  • imgladiwenttoealingsouthall 20th Jul '07 - 11:26pm

    Paul,

    Come on mate, try and keep some dignity. You left, you joined another party. Good luck. I am sure that whatever sense of fulfillment and happiness that you are looking for will not be found by spending your time on Lib Dem voice.

    In particular, posting things about how great you are is making you look very silly old friend. Come on, move on now and good luck in the future, I think your time here is done, don’t you?

  • Hywel Morgan 20th Jul '07 - 11:45pm

    240 hours, 13000 leaflets. I make that about 1 leaflet a minute (in territory with lots of terraces)

    Golly. How do we cope without you?

  • “the reason for the limited swing is the exceptionally short 3-week campaign.”

    That is one of them, but not the most important.

    Divide the constituency by the River Brent and compare what happened on either side.

    On the east (Ealing side), which is ethnically and socio-economically mixed, the Lib Dems picked up substantial numbers of votes from both Labour and Conservatives (certainly since 2006), even though three of the four wards are Labour/Tory marginals.

    On the west side, the Asian block vote held, as it has always done in every election since the early 1960s. I bet you there were streets either side of Southall Broadway where Sharma got 80%. No number of lealets, no amount of door-knocking, will chage the way the bulk of Southall Asians vote. The defections made no difference, Tony Lit made no difference.

    All of which tells us something about the sociology and culture of the Southall Asian community, but absolutely nothing about the state of British politics.

    David Cameron failed to appreciate this, of course. He simply didn’t understand what makes the constituency tick. As an Old Etonian aristocrat he has been brought up to believe he is born to rule, and that ordinary people have a duty to follow him. He is lacking in empathy for and understanding of people outside his class. And that is his undoing.

  • Grammar Police 21st Jul '07 - 10:14am

    “What would have happened if there was no Paul Seery campaigning hard against them?
    The latter one I will answer with pride. During this by-election I delivered 13,000+ pieces of literature thoughought the ealing Southall seat. This included all the wards in the seat and all but 7 yes 7 polling districts in the seat also.
    My efforts were so magnificant that it recieved such high praise not only from other conservative activists but from PPCs (Marke Clarke, Louise Blagshaw) and also MPs (Justine Greening, Grant Shapps etc.) that helped out there.”

    When I first read these comments I assumed someone was being ironic – no one could really be quite so conceited as to believe they are *so* important. But actually I think maybe you do – and perhaps that’s why you left the party because you felt it failed to recognise your brilliance? Do your Conservative colleagues know how important you think you are?

  • 25, I see you have a history of prodigiously enormous leaflet delivery – http://petersmallwood.blogspot.com/2007/06/paul-seery-joins-conservatives.html

    4% eh? I heard we delivered a million pieces of literature in bromley – so you delivered 40,000 there. You’re slacking off!

  • Here here Tim.

    You Liberals may be smug now but if there was a by-election in a Lib Dem – Conservative marginal seat I fancy the Conservatives to turn the Lib Dems over.

    Oh and on Ealing Southall I am suprised that the Lib Dems are rather quiet about the fact that on one of their walkabouts they were stunned by the social action project that Tony Lit put on in Southall. They were so stunned that Lib Dem Goldenboy Nick Clegg hid himself in the Lib dem walkabout group. I was not there personally to see it but from what I heard it was very funny.

    Also Lib Dems why did you select a candidate that has no carisma, no political success and is a ugly baldy. For all the few faults that the Conservative candidate may have had at least he had carisma and was also a winner and a success story, unlike wacky backie Bahki with his background in being a shelf fillier and a worker for mothercare.

    That is all I am going to say on the matter.

  • “That was a different era when the Liberal Democrat by-election machine had not yet emerged (and the late 1970s were a time when hardly anyone wanted to defend the Liberals, dog lovers or not). Since then the Liberal Democrat by-election machine has grown and had a constant string of results – until Thursday.”

    Tim Roll-Pickering is a typical arrogant public school nincompoop who pontificates from a position of crass ignorance – like his hero, Mr Cameron.

    Has he never heard of Sutton & Cheam, Ripon, Berwick-on-Tweed, Liverpool Edge Hill? Or Orpington?

    Wake up, Mr Roll-Pickering. The UK is a democracy. People are entitled to vote for parties other than the Tories. The Conservative Party hasn’t been chosen by God to reign over us. That went out with Charles I’s head.

    And Tim-Roll Pickering. At least we have never had a leader three of whose children were fathered by Boothby.

  • “Also Lib Dems why did you select a candidate that has no carisma”

    It might help if you learned how to spell the word, “charisma”. Try the dictionary.

    “unlike wacky backie Bahki with his background in being a shelf fillier and a worker for mothercare.”

    No. Shelf-fillers don’t get time to deliver leaflets all day, do they? Unlike some people.

  • Sorry. comments 40 and 41 are mine. Because I am using a public computer and not my own, my name did not get added.

  • “You Liberals may be smug now but if there was a by-election in a Lib Dem – Conservative marginal seat I fancy the Conservatives to turn the Lib Dems over.” – Paul Seery (comment 39)

    Yeah, like Bromley & Chislehurst, you Tory toss-pot.

  • “For all the few faults that the Conservative candidate may have had at least he had carisma and was also a winner and a success story”

    Uhhh…. he was a Labour donor, who came third. If that’s Cameron’s Conservative’s definition of a “winner”, it might explain why they’re cheerfully off this weekend to pick up votes in Kigali South constituency…

  • Hywel Morgan 22nd Jul '07 - 9:26pm

    Chris K: “Angus: You may be right about the Southall Asian community – but there are places where solidy Labour Asian communities have swung to the Lib Dems. Look at the Birmingham Hodge Hill or Leicester South by-elections in 2004.”

    The Asian communities in those two seats were substantially Muslim for whom Iraq was a significant issue. The Asian community in Southall AIUI is predominantly Sikh (though I assume our candidate in Leicester South was a Sikh from his name)

    In both consitutuencies we had a significant base of support before the by-election which doesn’t seem to have been true in Ealing.

  • Hywel Morgan 22nd Jul '07 - 9:28pm

    Paul S “background in being a shelf fillier and a worker for mothercare.”

    I don’t see anything wrong with having either of those backgrounds. Are they unacceptable to David Cameron’s new Conservatives?

  • Both Angus and Hwyel are right to stress the strong loyalty of Southall (the town) and particularly Sikh voters, which Cameron totally misunderstood.

    To be fair though the blog comments of Chris Rennard and Duncan Borrowman about canvass returns not being delivered also indicate a misreading of how politics works in Southall – as also shown in the widespread incredulity of outside campaigners and journalists to the Southall tradition of shopkeepers having posters up of different parties.

    East of the Iron Bridge, as Angus points out, politics is very different. My estimate is that we won Ealing Common very comfortably (over 50%) had a too close to call three way result in Walpole and came second to Labour in Elthorne. Only Northfield was a Tory win – in a strange ward that should be natural territory for us, but has for some reason long been a Labour/Tory marginal.

  • It’s interesting that Tim Roll-Pickering says he didn’t go to public school. His Facebook profile and Wikipedia user page say that after Downsend prep school he went to Radley and City of London. These are, by any normal standards (he makes the peculiar comment, ‘by the correct sense of the term’), what is meant by a public school, especially Radley, which is one of the last public schools to be all boys and all boarding, and where boys wear gowns to all their lessons.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarDavid Evans 14th Dec - 1:08am
    David Warren, Indeed you are right. Unfortunately our MPs have a reputation of putting looking after the Conservatives ahead of looking after our Voters and...
  • User AvatarGlenn 13th Dec - 10:53pm
    Frankie Spell my name right and learn what a nuanced response is. The term hardliner refers to someone with unbending beliefs and a refusal to...
  • User Avatarexpats 13th Dec - 10:31pm
    Paul D B 13th Dec '18 - 9:40pm..........People should not be apologists for the Labour Party. They created the free-loading loosely regulated conditions (in parallel...
  • User AvatarSean Hyland 13th Dec - 10:29pm
    Paul D B - note that i was not apologising for Labour. Just saying to correct your initial post that they caused the 2008 crash....
  • User Avatarexpats 13th Dec - 10:20pm
    David Raw 13th Dec '18 - 9:10pm @ expats. Come on old lad, that Boris is a real hard man who learned his trade in...
  • User AvatarSean Hagan 13th Dec - 10:14pm
    @Yeovil Yokel: As Commons Speaker, John Bercow does not currently sit as a Conservative MP, so was not amongst the 317 who had a vote...