Tag Archives: ealing southall by-election

New Statesman Talks Up Ming Assassins

The New Statesman this week carries an editorial by the Labour-supporting Mirror’s Rosa Prince, attacking Ming. Her analysis – tarring Ming with failure alongside David Cameron’s – is less remarkable than the gossip she offers on the higher eschelons of the party:

Many had hoped last month’s Ealing Southall by-election would provide the magic bullet … One prominent Lib Dem MP, returning from campaigning in Ealing, arrived at an eve-of-poll summer party thrown by a leading party member exclaiming: “F*** – it looks like we might win this thing now.” He was consoled by several frontbenchers, at least two

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | 12 Comments

What the media says

Two good results for the Lib Dems on Thursday with swings against Labour and two embarrassing third places for David Cameron’s Conservatives. That’s our line – but what does the press think? Here’s a handy guide…

Daily Express, Saturday 21st
“Leading Britain is a grown-up job for a serious politician. Voters have had quite enough of windmills, bicycles, sledges and huskies. They do not care for the dilettante Notting Hill Set which surrounds Mr Cameron. Part-time spokesmen who prefer to make money moonlighting rather than mastering their briefs should be swept away.”

Simon Heffer, The Daily Telegraph, Saturday 21st
“Frankly, if you can’t even come second in by-elections halfway through the third term of another party’s time in power, things aren’t just wrong. They are catastrophically wrong. The worst mistake Dave can make now, though, is to imagine they can’t get worse. They can. They can get a lot worse.”

Tania Branigan, The Guardian, Saturday 21st
“The third-place finish is a personal blow to David Cameron, who toured the west London constituency five times with political newcomer Tony Lit. The Liberal Democrats also squeezed the Conservatives into third place in Sedgefield.”

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged and | 19 Comments

Chris Rennard’s verdict

Commenting on Lib Dem Voice, Lib Dem chief executive and by-election supremo Lord Chris Rennard has posted the following assessment of how the party fared in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections:

In Ealing Southall, our campaigns teams’ assesment of the state of play over the final weekend was not very far off the result. Of course, we hoped and thought that we could get even closer by polling day.

We published that assessment (inc on Lib Dem Voice). Our figures were Lab 37, LD 31, Con 22. The final result was Lab 41, LD 28

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 13 Comments

The morning after the night before

What to make of last night’s by-elections?

Well, for the Labour Party there is evident relief that they have held on to both Ealing Southall and Sedgefield, albeit with considerably reduced majorities, and swings to the Liberal Democrats of 6% and 11% respectively.

There is probably a nagging sense of disappointment among Lib Dems that our achievements were not more spectacular – but that is at least as much due to the very high expectations we set ourselves. No, neither Ealing Southall nor Sedgefield rank will alongside either Brent East or Dunfermline. But the circumstances were quite different, not least because …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged and | 7 Comments

Ealing Southall result: 6% swing from Labour to Lib Dem

Results just in:

Labour Party: 15,188 (41%) -8% compared to 2005
Nigel Bakhai, Liberal Democrats: 10,118 (28%) +4%
David Cameron’s Conservatives: 8,230 (23%)

Huge congratulations to Nigel Bakhai, the Ealing Southall Lib Dems, and all those who helped the campaign, on achieving a 6% swing from Labour, and keeping David Cameron’s Tories firmly back in third place.

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | 50 Comments

Grant Shapps in irony-is-dead shocker

Grant Shapps MP, the Tory by-election campaign manager in Ealing Southall, gained some level of infamy last week when he was caught red-handed pretending to be a Lib Dem member posting comments to YouTube.

Mr Shapps’ weak excuse – that his account password was set to ‘1234’, and hacked by opposition parties – was widely derided.

So it comes as some surprise to see this story in today’s Times:

The Conservatives claimed to have identified a woman who confronted Mr Cameron during a walkabout in the constituency as a Labour supporter involved in the party’s campaign. …

Referring to Mr Cameron’s

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 6 Comments

Police investigation into Ealing Southall postal votes ‘leak’

As if the Ealing Southall by-election needed another twist… news has broken tonight that police will be mounting an investigation following the leaking of alleged postal vote scores via the Telegraph’s Little and Large blog, authored by Daily Telegraph journalists Brendan Carlin and Jonathan Isaby.

As any fule kno, it’s a criminal offence to disclose the results of postal vote counts before polls close. The complaint to the police has come from Labour’s election agent, Ken Clarke (no, not him, a different one).

It is of course a complete mystery which party might have chosen to leak figures …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | 6 Comments

Conservative poster campaign in Ealing

Oh dear. Oh deary me. I think you can guess what’s coming… so without further ado, here’s the evidence.

Photograph A: illegally flyposted Conservative election posters.

Conservative flyposting in Ealing Southall

Photograph B: illegally flyposted Conservative election posters removed by Ealing Council (insert outrage at hard-pressed local Council Tax payers having to fund the tidying up etc etc).

Conservative flyposting in Ealing Southall - removal

Photograph C and D: the people who erected the Conservative posters. (Doubtless they weren’t acting on behalf of Grant Shapps, but instead the number keypad code on the Conservative poster …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 8 Comments

Lib Dems leading the way on Facebook

In a quiet moment in Ealing (no sniggering at the back), I thought it would be interesting to see how much the various parties are using social networking site to support their efforts in the two parliamentary by-elections – and whether my sneaking suspicion that the Liberal Democrats are making the best use of it are true. It’s possible that the other parties have secret groups we don’t know about, but based on what we cansee, here are the stats* – represented for your viewing pleasure in traditional bar chart form, with exciting added 3-D perspective:

Ealing Facebook graph ...
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Posted in Online politics and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged and | 5 Comments

Chris Rennard: a re-count in Ealing Southall, challengers to Labour in Sedgefield

Lib Dem chief executive and by-election supremo, Lord Chris Rennard, has posted his thoughts on Lib Dem Voice on the current state of play for Thursday’s by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield:

By-elections can be fast moving in the last two days. I will not issue “final forecasts” here but have often been accurate to within a handful of votes in the past !

What I will say is that over the weekend I think that Ealing Southall was something like Labour 37, Lib Dem 31, Con 22. From this position Lib Dems can win but it should be close. I

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 2 Comments

Razzall and Littlewood on Ming’s future

The Guardian reports on today’s BBC World at One interviews with former Lib Dem campaign manager, Lord Tim Razzall, and former head of communications, Mark Littlewood, here. Both suggest Ming Campbell’s future would come under the spotlight if the party were to under-perform in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections this Thursday.

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged , , , and | 6 Comments

Prediction competition: place your free bets here

What do you think will happen this Thursday, 19th July, in the crunch by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield?

Will Labour cling on in one, both or neither seats? And which of the two main opposition parties, the Lib Dems or the Tories, will fare best? The political blogosphere has been humming these past couple of weeks with pundits on all sides arguing the toss.

But now’s the moment to put your credibility on the line, online, and to say what you think will actually happen this Thursday. There are no prizes on offer – merely the respect and admiration of friend …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 16 Comments

Sky exclusive: Tony Lit, Tony Blair and the £50,000 cheque

Sky is just about to break a story about Tony Lit being photographed giving a £50,000 £4,800 cheque to Tony Blair at a Labour fundraiser. Let’s hope this story is more accurate than the PA’s poll reporting attempts earlier this evening…

UPDATE: The Telegraph has more about Tony Lit and the donation.

UPDATE 2: The party’s official reaction is up on the Ealing Southall by-election site.

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | 17 Comments

A Betting Tip?

The recent Politicalbetting.com thread suggests good results for us in both by-elections. The regular punters spinning on that site say that Ealing Southall will be a close split between all three main parties. In Sedgefield, there’s speculation that some Labour voters may stay at home, giving Greg Stone a chance to win.

Am I the only one who thinks Labour are less certain to hold Sedgefield than the 1.03 odds currently on Betfair? For a liability of £5.16 I stand to take £172 if voters punish the Brown government and Labour’s thuggish attempts to distrupt democracy. You can …

Posted in Op-eds and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 2 Comments

Conservative MP says: we’re not going to win in Ealing

A Conservative Shadow Cabinet member has today admitted that the Conservatives ‘do not think they will win’ the Ealing Southall by-election. As the party’s press release puts it:

A Conservative Shadow Cabinet member has today admitted that the Conservatives ‘do not think they will win’ the Ealing Southall by-election.

Local Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai who finished second at the last General Election is leading a strong campaign for the local area.

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 18 Comments

Lib Dem councillor denies tactical vote slur

The Lib Dem Voice posting on Monday, ‘Five Labour councillors switch to the Tories in Ealing’, provoked a large response – 54 comments at the last count.

Four of these comments (Nos 16, 20, 23 and 24) purported to be from Cllr Abid Latif Chohan, a Lib Dem city councillor in Manchester, claiming he would be supporting the Tory candidate in the Ealing by-election: “I have many friends in Southall, mainly muslim, who plan to vote for Mr Lit. I really hate Labour. Could we withdraw at this stage to give Lit a free run? We could devide

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | 9 Comments

EXCLUSIVE: Grant Shapps says “realistically we’re not going to win” in Ealing

Now here’s an interesting tale. … can anyone provide a decent explanation?

Over on one of the (official) YouTube films from the Liberal Democrats there is this comment from someone:

Okay, realistically we’re not going to win though. Especially since the Tories have just received 5 defecting Councillors from Labour. Don’t quite know how they’ve done it, but the Tories have stolen a march on us this time.

With phrases such as “us” this is clearly written as if from a Liberal Democrat member or supporter.

But according to YouTube the comment was posted by a “GrantShapps” (look just above the comment for …

Posted in Online politics and Parliamentary by-elections | 40 Comments

Who is “useless, opportunist, communalist and weak” in Ealing Southall?

Pardes newspaper mastheadPardes Weekly is turning out to be the most lively local newspaper during the Ealing Southall by-election. You might be hard-pressed though to work out their view of the Labour campaign from the latest edition:

Pardes Weekly on Varinder Sharma and Labour Ealing Southall campaign

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 1 Comment

Conservative splits in Ealing Southall

Now that the lists of candidates are in and finalised in the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-elections, the extent of the Conservative splits in Ealing is clear. For one of the independent candidates is Gulbash Singh, a former Conservative member and – as recently as May 2006 – Conservative candidate in Ealing. In fact, he polled the highest number of votes of any Conservative council candidate in the Southall end of the constituency in 2006.

With all these troubles, it’s no wonder one of their activists has called for the Tories to run a campaign of lies.

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 2 Comments

Ealing Labour: we don’t want you to know who our candidate is

After all the infighting in the Labour Party over their Ealing Southall candidate selection, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Ealing Labour Party’s official website – www.ealinglabour.com – isn’t saying anything about their candidate:

Ealing Labour party website

As the screenshot above shows, there’s no story about his selection, whilst doing a search on his name rather nicely simply gives the message “Insert content here”:

Ealing Labour party website

Who knows, perhaps the website is run by …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 20 Comments

Ealing Southall: local paper accuses Labour candidate of dirty tricks

This from the latest edition of Pardes Weekly, one of the local papers in Ealing, talking about the Labour candidate Virendra Sharma’s activities just before he was selected:

Ealing Southall: Virendra Sharma accused of dirty tricks

With both Labour and Conservative infighting over their candidate selections, the prospects for Nigel Bakhai are looking better and better.

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 3 Comments

Ealing Southall: Labour select Virendra Sharma

After all Labour’s Ealing Southall selection problems, it’s Virendra Sharma.

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 3 Comments

Ealing Southall: yet more Labour selection woes

From (presumably) a Labour party member:

I was at the meeting last night and it was a disgrace to local democracy. As you say, as soon as the two candidate shortlist was announced, the regional director was subjected to continuous heckling, to the point that ‘heavies’ were brought in to threaten protestors with ejection from the room.

Happy days if you’re a Labour member clearly.

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 3 Comments

Ealing Southall: now Labour have trouble with their candidate

Hot on the heals of the Conservative Party’s trouble over the imposition of Tony Lit as their candidate in Ealing Southall, we have fun and games in the Labour Party too.

Ealing Southall was originally going to have an All Women Shortlist for Labour, something strongly backed by Piara Khabra before his death who had wanted to be followed by a female Labour MP when he retired.

But that was scrapped when he died and the by-election was called. Amongst those campaigning for the Labour selection was Sonika Nirwal, who was clearly taking the selection seriously given how glossy her selection leaflet …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 2 Comments

Ealing Southall: the betting verdict so far

Ealing Southall: Bet Fair odds.jpgThe betting books are open and the verdict of the punters so far? The Liberal Democrats are the best bet to take the seat from Labour.

These odds are aided no doubt by today’s news of the switch of a key Conservative activist to the Liberal Democrats, unhappy with David Cameron’s leadership and the way their candidate, Tony Lit – described as “controversial and high risk” by an Ealing Tory councillor – was foisted on them.

Doubtless …

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 6 Comments

Tories hit by defection in by-election seat of Ealing Southall (copy of a party Press Release)

A senior Conservative in the by-election seat of Ealing Southall has defected to the Liberal Democrats, following the imposition of a candidate on the local party by Tory spin doctors.

Mr Brij Mohan Gupta, Deputy Chair (Political) of Ealing Southall Conservatives and Vice-Chair of Southall Green and Southall Broadway Conservative ward parties, has joined the Liberal Democrats and backed the Liberal Democrat candidate Nigel Bakhai.

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | 18 Comments

Liberal Democrats select Nigel Bakhai for Ealing Southall

Nigel BakhaiLocal choice Nigel Bakhai is set to challenge Labour once more in Ealing Southall, after being selected by Ealing Southall Liberal Democrats. Nigel Bakhai doubled the Lib Dem vote at the 2005 General Election.

The Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour in the seat. They were second at the last General Election.

Local Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai said:

“Living in the heart of the constituency I know the issues that local people face. Labour has taken our area for granted for too long.

“This election is about local people electing …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged and | 2 Comments

Conservative activist says: we must lie in Ealing Southall

It’s a favourite cliche of the other parties to attack Liberal Democrat campaign tactics. However, the evidence – as ever – is rather different in Ealing Southall. Ben Surtess (a name that may be familiar to some as he has written some interesting posts on PoliticalBetting.com) is a Conservative activist and over on Conservative Home has been arguing that the party must lie in its election campaign:

The two themes that must be pressed home within the first week of the campaign is that the Conservatives are the party challenging Labour … and that Lit is the “local” candidate while the LibDem candidate is

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 11 Comments

Ealing Southall: Tony Lit criticised by his own side

Phil Taylor Ealing Southall quoteHello and welcome to Ealing Conservative Councillor Phil Taylor, who has blogged thus about the Tory candidate for the Ealing Southall Parliamentary by-election:

He is clearly a controversial and high risk choice

Why is Tony Lit considered by his own side to be “controversial and high risk”? Well here’s a taster:

  • Tony Lit’s selection led to an outbreak of criticism on ConservativeHome; in particular Francis Maude seems to have rather misled another would-be Conservative candidate who was told that he had

Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | Also tagged | 16 Comments

Ealing Southall is Lib Dem vs Labour – Press Association

Press Association quote on Ealing Southall by-election


Posted in Parliamentary by-elections | 29 Comments

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