The betting books are open and the verdict of the punters so far? The Liberal Democrats are the best bet to take the seat from Labour.
These odds are aided no doubt by today’s news of the switch of a key Conservative activist to the Liberal Democrats, unhappy with David Cameron’s leadership and the way their candidate, Tony Lit – described as “controversial and high risk” by an Ealing Tory councillor – was foisted on them.
Doubtless we will soon see whether or not the Conservative campaign follows the advice of one of their own activists to start telling lies.
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Turns out I was worrying about the Gell-Mann amnesia effect
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6 Comments
I wouldn’t bet on the LibDems winning the seat…
There’s a lot of flab in that market – the implied probabilities add up to about 200%!
Give it a while and the odds will lengthen – if it stays rougly proportional to what it is now I would expect it to end up around 3/2 Lab, 2/1 LD, 5/1 Con.
Implied probabilities from that would be 40% Lab, 33% LD, 17% Con – bar chart anyone? 😉
The Tories seem to be drifting further out.
Yes – there’s still not much money in the market, but you can now get 9/1 on the Tories in Sedgefield and 19/2 in Southall…
Ouch!
I have moderated a comment (to which Joe’s comment below is a reply) which referred to a number of people in the third person but appeared to be written by one of those people. If this was not the case, apologies to the commenter in question, and please get in touch to let us know.
Because we don’t choose our candidates based on race? And because Nigel is respected locally and more than doubled the Lib Dem vote last time out?
Also, complaints about who “we” have chosen are fairly pointless, as (unlike the Tory candidate, apparently) by-election candidates are selected by local party members.
Finally, I think Nigel’s an excellent candidate who is right for the area and will give Labour a run for their money. If every Lib Dem activist were to follow your excellent example, and come down to Southall to campaign at some point over the next 12 days, then I have no doubt whatsoever that we would win handsomely.
What people will respond to is the hard work we are doing in the area – racial identity is secondary to who local people think would do the best job as their next MP, even in this diverse and complex seat.
Please do continue to help out – and don’t be too hasty with the recriminations! We have an excellent chance of winning this one.
The bookies have us at 2/1…