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Recent Comments
Jeff
How relevant is this to Trump’s MAGA movement, to Farage and Reform? Of little to none I would have thought. The political ideologies that came to d...
Nonconformistradical
I second Henry's comments about Barrow - this south-eastener has at least, albeit not recently, set foot in the Barrow constituency (visiting friends who lived ...
John Peters
I would not have classed Barrow-in-Furness as post industrial. For decades it has had the same major employer - the dockyards. It manafactures the UK's nuclear ...
David Raw
@ Daniel Walker, "we should have the cheapest possible democracy". I didn't say that, Daniel, though what I imply is that the party needs to prove to and mak...
Henry
I do get very annoyed by the comments on these by-election posts. The over-exaggeration of our comeback because we won last week and then complain when we finis...
29 Comments
If the Liberal democrats think it is a two-horse race then they can think again. Here is a few things to keep in mind:
1. The Conservative party currently run the Ealing Council.
2. The Conservative party was not that far behind in terms of the vote in the General elections. The figures were LD: 11,497 – Con: 10,147. Diff.: 1,350
3. The Conservatives have a former Liberal Democrat campaigner that was ever present for the Liberal Democrats in Bromley last year. In fact he delivered 4% of the literature that the Liberal Democrats produced.
4. The Conservative Party has already selected its candidate for the by-election, whereas Labour or the Liberal Democrats havn’t
To say its a two horse race for the by-election is a little bit premature. Also do not write of the Conservative challenge for the by-election.
Paul Seery,
1)So the Toeies ahve to take the blame for all local decisions. This will lose them votes.
2) The Tories slipped 1250 votes behind the Lib Dems when previously they had been in a clear second place.
3) You’ve gained a new deliverer. Whoopdy-doo ! You obviously don’t realise that one deliverer makes little difference in a by-election.
4) The Tories have already chose their losing candidate.
He really has become pretty tedious hasn’t he?.
I did find point 3 quite entertaining. After years of wondering just how we do it, we know now that our years of by-election successes were entirely down to Paul.
Also, I’m sure none of us will “write of the Conservative challenge.” Everyone knows its between the Lib Dems and Labour here! 🙂
I’m sure Paul, as a keen psephologist, can tell us when the last time was the Tories won a by-election from Labour. 😉
The Lib Dems have been the only challengers to New Labour in by-elections ever since there *was* a New Labour. We are famous as by-election specialists – we know it, the press know it, the public know it, and the other parties fear it.
Ealing is prime territory for a by-election upset so I’m not at all surprised at all to see an article like that!
Paul,
For a defector, you spend far too much time worrying about us. Are your new friends not willing to play with you?
Here we go again – it’s a two-horse race etc, etc.Change the bloody record!You’re on 12% in the polls, have few councillors in Ealing and no candidate in place. This is no Brent East. Conservatives are back in business. Keep Ming, your Focues, arrogance and smugness. Thank you for that – feel better now.
Dear Julian
Hope you still feel better when the Tories finish in third place just like in the GE (oh and in Brent East)
Before anyone from any party gets carried away to fairyland, it might be an idea to exmaine the facts.
Those Southall wards west of the Brent are among the most rock solidly Labour in Britain. ANY Labour candidate (Piara Khabra, Steve Pound of Humphrey the cat) is guaranteed 90% of the vote in very many streets.
A few observations.
Ealing Tories are among the most puerile in Britain (trolls in suits). Central Office will want to keep them as far away from the byelection campaign as possible.
Most Labour councillors in Southall are useless. They are time-servers with big egos who are tolerated by the “Acton Mafia” as long as they keep their mouths shut and don’t rock the boat. Good Southall Labour councillors have been known, but they tend to get deselected pretty fast.
Lib Dem success in Southall is not out of the question. It nearly happened in the early 1980s when Piara Khabra joined the SDP. But it requires a sea change from within the Asian community itself.
By the way, the Tories won Ealing Council because they exploited public hostility to the tram proposal. As people (and with a few honourable excetions) they have nothing to offer people other than self-aggrandisement.
Can I just remind the Tory trolls that we demolished your majority in one of your safest seats and came within a few hundred votes of taking it off you at the last parliamentary by-election? And we won Dunfermline without a leader at all!
Our HQ is up and running, the campaign starts in earnest tomorrow morning, and a Lib Dem candidate is imminent.
“And we won Dunfermline without a leader at all!”
not having a leader can be a good thing….
The Tories don’t do well at By-Elections because their natural arrogance makes them poor campaigners. They always look uncomfortable outside of their air conditioned offices and they haven’t got the stamina of Lib Dem activists.
Its always amusing watching them attempt to appear normal on doorsteps. I just hope the rain doesnt spoil their expensively tailored suits.
With only 20 days to campaign its going to be tough, but the reason the time period is so short proves Labour know they are second choice when people get enough literature to find out what the lib dems are about.
I don’t own a suit
The anti-Tory diatribes here are quite funny. Ealing Council has transformed the steets of Southall in the past year by making them clean and comparable to the rest of the borough. What is more this has been noticed by locals. At the local elections The tories were 14% ahaead of the Lib Dems. I will be amazed if the Tories don’t beat the Lib Dems here and am very happy to take any bets. Look forward to hearing the explanations for your third palce position come July 20.
We shouldn’t get complacent about our by-election victories – they can’t go on indefinitely. Remember we didn’t actually win in Bromley last time despite what Ming said in that conference speech.
Dizzy, you don’t need one, you wear your arrogance on your blog 🙂
Letterman – quite right – the Con to Lib Dem swing was a meagre 14% in Bromley – a Tory seat the Tories were defending during a Labour Govenrment – hardly worth mentioning really.
Amazing cat fights here. Mi-aow. Perhaps Jody Dunn needs another run out?
The Lib Dems have no chance of getting even a second place.
The local Conservatives are on the ascendant, have Labour on the back foot and local polling shows people are supportive of Ealing Council.
Lib Dems have ONE seat in the whole constituency!
And finally, Ming Campbell has “loser” written all over him.
Love it when we get Tories trolling all over here with these kinds of comments. Pride comes before a fall …
Lib Dem had ONE Councillor in 2005 what was the result? 2nd . Tory won Ealing Council because of protest vote against Labour/Ken Tram.
If so popular why not one of Tory local Councillor was picked as a candidate.
In fact Party picked a person who was not even a Party member, and there are some reports (unconfirmed)that he also approached Lib Dem but was turned down.
The Conservatives have never succeeded in winning more than a derisory vote among the Southall Asian community. Even their shameful attempts to play Muslim off against Sikh have come to absolutely zero.
Yet we have Oracles of Delphi like David Bannerman bragging about a likely outcome without the formality of an election actually having taken place.
What makes them feel so chipper?
It can’t be their past electoral record in Southall. And it can’t be their tireless efforts on behalf of Southall’s citizens (there haven’t been any). Nor can it have anything to do with David Cameron’s (evident) belief that, as an aristocrat, he has been chosen by God to reign over us.
So why are the snakes hissing in their pit?
Could it just be that some Southall residents at least, tired of their status as voting fodder for the Acton Mafia, might be considering placing their crosses elsewhere?
When Asian voters in Brent deserted the Labour Party, did they go Tory? Er… nope.
“What makes them feel so chipper?”
Southall Broadway ward Conservative vote 2002 6.04%, Conservative vote 2006 33.7%
Lib Dem vote 2002 5.2%, Lib Dem vote 2006 7.3%
Now which party would you say has been more effective in chipping away at Labour’s Southall electoral monopoly?
No 22. We’ve been here before. The Tories won the Waxlow byelection (ward of Gurcharan Singh) in 1988. Did they go on to win the Parliamentary seat in 1992? Remind me what happened.
“Remind me what happened.”
Tories came ahead of Lib Dems by a margin of 4 to 1 (Lib Dems 7.7%, Tories 33.6%)
I don’t actually expect the Tory- Lib Dem gap to be as large this time, but if you want to make a bet as to which party will get more votes I am very happy to oblige.
No 24, I don’t bet. Gambling is for morons.
What happened in 1992 is that Labour’s share of the vote increased, despite the Tories having won a 50% Asian ward (Waxlow) 4 years earlier (and despite unfavourable boundary changes).
The only SERIOUS threat to Labour hegemony in Southall was Piara Khabra’s 1981 defection to the SDP.
No, correction. The boundary changes took effect in 1997.
Think we are arguing at cross purposes. All I am saying is that Lib Dems will come third.
I disagree with M. (27)Nigel increased the LibDem support by 5 folds at the last election. Nigel is proactive in Ealing/ Southall to say the least.
Labour & Conservatives have done nothing locally or helped the local community
Will the Lib Dems in this thread stop wasting time dueling with tories and get down to 5 Grand Union Way, Bridge Road, Southall, Middlesex UB2 4EX
We have got piles of canvassing and delivery for you to do!